VLM Airlines news 2016

[jan_olieslagers]

He is not obliged to communicate his interests publicly... and I should guess that his interest, however deep, will depend on conditions ...

[RoMax]

There where 4 interested parties, one you all now is van Gaever, the other 3 preferred to be anonymous.

Is Carl Legein, CEO of The Aviation Factory, no longer interested, for the two planes painted in Vizion Air colours?

It is a joint project of Van Gaever and Legein as far as I know.

[FLYAIR10]

There where 4 interested parties, one you all now is van Gaever, the other 3 preferred to be anonymous.

Not sure what the other 3 'anonymous' parties have in mind and what they can offer, but FVG is meaning business.On the other hand it is nice to note there are 4 parties to take over/start-up aviation business from regional airports.
FVG seems to have an appointment next tuesday with the Belgian Aviation Authorities,presumably to discuss the 'modalities' to obtain an AOC for his new airline. In his plan he also intends to purchase(not hire) a few planes from Ex-VLM; (I guess it can be max 4). FVG also claims to have ready very experienced flight crew and maintenance staff (ex-VLM,ex-SABENA).
If the BAA does not impose too many extra hurdles ,and if he can convince at least one bank and a few other investors to participate in the starting capital of the new company, we soon might see the revival of .... 'VG-Airlines...,albeit on a quite different scale than the first edition. FGV is hopeful to start-up operations even in July 2016 with about 50 employees.
Interesting development... would be good for Belgian aviation and the former VLM-staff if this project is succesful.

[jan_olieslagers]

With all respect for Mr. Van Gaever, I can't help some scepticism. There is only one scheduled service from ANR that brings certain success, and that is London. As long as the LCY route is operated by another party, no room for a second operator. At least not in scheduled services - VizionAir/TheAviationFactory do seem to find some niche market, yes indeed, but no "VLM-new" is required to continue that business.

(on a side note: I was curious about the VLM project to operate the Sukhois to TelAviv and even Delhi - given the importance of diamond trade at ANR, that might have had its chance. But we will not see it shortly, now.)

[Flanker2]

It's baffling that SN haven't even taken a look at VG.

They have. For sure, they have. But the books were that terrible, that any negociation was useless. Your remark is yet another proof that you are totally utterly unaware of anything that happens in the branch that isn't yours.

Given the annual account for 2014 (published) and 2015 (not published), it would be extremely utterly stupid for anyone airline to take over VLM before bankruptcy. Even for 1 Euro.

Ow and whoever criticised me for warning against mr. White's reckless 'management' decisions, ...

If it was just "reckless management", there would be some hope. But it's a lot more. And it's not only White.

... I told you so.

You are even surpassing Nostradamus. You send out ten fatal warnings every day, and a few times each year, one of them indeed realizes. And this one was an easy one. How about your prediction that Brussels Airlines will go bankrupt: any news on that Flanker?

What a bunch of bullcr*p.
First of all,
9 millions of debt is nothing at the scale of an airline, especially one like SN. It's 3 days worth of revenue.
In return, they get a running operation, a list of clients that they can access, pilots, cabin crew and maintenance crews who are trained, current and running in an operation audited and approved by the CAA.
Setting up a new airline operation has a cost of itself. This is not an aeroclub with volunteers that we're talking about. People who write operation manuals, procedures, establish training schedules, apply for AOC's hire staff, build websites, salespeople, marketing people, lawyers, etc... don't work for free.
9 million doesn't even cover the start-up cost and the first years of operations for a new airline of any size.

Second, imo bankruptcy complicates things because as someone interested to take-over, you can't negotiate directly with the debt-holders.
This all takes time. The curator can't just sell everything the next day and distribute the money the day after.
The curator has to verify how the debt has been generated, whether the debtor's demands are in line with the actual debt, his priority in the liquidation process. Then he needs to establish an inventory of all assets.
Some debts are liquid, because keeping aircraft parked generates new debt towards insurance, airports, lessors, etc... Establishing invetory is a big task in itself as expert valuations need to be established on all the assets.
In the meanwhile, crews lose their currencies, get jobs elsewhere, and relaunching will require retraining or hiring new staff and training them, etc...

Point 3, if FVG is planning to restart with a partial fleet of 4 leased aircraft, it's pretty pointless.
What can you do with 4 old F50's? Nothing. In fact, FVG only has one option, see conclusion below.

Point 4. Also, his point of view that it will take little money to restart VLM is pretty difficult to digest. See above or start up costs and initial losses.

Point 5. In addition, don't you guys read the newspaper? Brexit just happened. European stocks are overvalued across the board, even more than in 2007-2008. This is worse than Lehman Brothers in 2008. Remember that we were all making such a fuss about a Grexit? Well guess what, the UK has rightfully given the EU the finger and it's 10 times worse than a Grexit which was all over the news. The EU has just lost 15% of its GDP.
I don't think that we saw the worst of all on Friday. Another 5-10% drop in the stock markets next week and the hedge funds are going to start withdrawing their positions, in a cascade of stop losses that is going to make the crisis of 2008 look like a joy-ride.
Which bank is going to be insane enough to finance a little regional airline start-up in the middle of such a sh*tstorm?

Conclusion.
The only viable option to keep the operation going IMO is for someone to take the entire operation over as-is, with an agreed concession from the debtors to reduce the total debt to a manageable level, negotiated by the curator under threat of losing everything.
Liquidating the airline in pieces is going to divide the debtors and will be a mess that will take time and will make a restart impossible.

[koninckske]

Show some respect... You also talk a lot of bullsh*t... everyone has an opinion, respect it and discuss if you have something to say.

FVG can't take the whole company, because it is gone. He can only buy what is left. He will buy the F50s later, for now he wants to rent them from the liquidator. And nobody is going to buy the debts even if it is 'only' 9 million.

Brexit just created a big reason for UK airlines to look for an AOC in Europe... 'Flybe Europe' to give you an example

[Shengenzone]

Also worth noting is that the main curator is the same one who handled the bankrupty of Delsey and sobelair in the past... I do think this gives him a higher chance of succeeding as he knows how aviation works. He was also focusing on the checks the planes had had and if a C check (for instance) was supposed to happen any time soon to some of the aircraft, as this might reduce the value of those particular aircraft.

[convair]

9 millions of debt is nothing at the scale of an airline, especially one like SN. It's 3 days worth of revenue.
In return, they get a running operation, a list of clients that they can access, pilots, cabin crew and maintenance crews who are trained, current and running in an operation audited and approved by the CAA.
Setting up a new airline operation has a cost of itself. This is not an aeroclub with volunteers that we're talking about. People who write operation manuals, procedures, establish training schedules, apply for AOC's hire staff, build websites, salespeople, marketing people, lawyers, etc... don't work for free.
9 million doesn't even cover the start-up cost and the first years of operations for a new airline of any size.

Second, imo bankruptcy complicates things because as someone interested to take-over, you can't negotiate directly with the debt-holders.
This all takes time. The curator can't just sell everything the next day and distribute the money the day after.
The curator has to verify how the debt has been generated, whether the debtor's demands are in line with the actual debt, his priority in the liquidation process. Then he needs to establish an inventory of all assets.
Some debts are liquid, because keeping aircraft parked generates new debt towards insurance, airports, lessors, etc... Establishing invetory is a big task in itself as expert valuations need to be established on all the assets.
In the meanwhile, crews lose their currencies, get jobs elsewhere, and relaunching will require retraining or hiring new staff and training them, etc...

Point 3, if FVG is planning to restart with a partial fleet of 4 leased aircraft, it's pretty pointless.
What can you do with 4 old F50's? Nothing. In fact, FVG only has one option, see conclusion below.

Point 4. Also, his point of view that it will take little money to restart VLM is pretty difficult to digest. See above or start up costs and initial losses.

Point 5. In addition, don't you guys read the newspaper? Brexit just happened. European stocks are overvalued across the board, even more than in 2007-2008. This is worse than Lehman Brothers in 2008. Remember that we were all making such a fuss about a Grexit? Well guess what, the UK has rightfully given the EU the finger and it's 10 times worse than a Grexit which was all over the news. The EU has just lost 15% of its GDP.
I don't think that we saw the worst of all on Friday. Another 5-10% drop in the stock markets next week and the hedge funds are going to start withdrawing their positions, in a cascade of stop losses that is going to make the crisis of 2008 look like a joy-ride.
Which bank is going to be insane enough to finance a little regional airline start-up in the middle of such a sh*tstorm?

Conclusion.
The only viable option to keep the operation going IMO is for someone to take the entire operation over as-is, with an agreed concession from the debtors to reduce the total debt to a manageable level, negotiated by the curator under threat of losing everything.
Liquidating the airline in pieces is going to divide the debtors and will be a mess that will take time and will make a restart impossible.

Even a relatively big company like SN would hesitate to endorse a 9 million € debt, unless it has a strong business plan! And there might be other liabilities or "skeletons in the closet".
If SN did have a look at VLM, which I very much doubt, it must have been mostly to get some information but they can't be seriously interested because:
First of all, SN has enough on its plate, developing its activities out of BRU;
Second, SN couldn't use ANR as a feeder base anyway;
Third, nor SN nor LH want to go through a new Korongo experience.

[saratoga]

What does FVG his businessplan involve? Also flying from antwerp to london city? I hope his vision is going wider than that.

[Didymus]

Point 5. In addition, don't you guys read the newspaper? Brexit just happened. European stocks are overvalued across the board, even more than in 2007-2008. This is worse than Lehman Brothers in 2008. Remember that we were all making such a fuss about a Grexit? Well guess what, the UK has rightfully given the EU the finger and it's 10 times worse than a Grexit which was all over the news. The EU has just lost 15% of its GDP.

Again, you show you have no clue what you have been talking about. Brexit isn't a financial debt crisis like 2008 or Grexit, it's a political crisis that could still go in either direction and has nothing to do with European stocks being overvalued, which they're not btw. Stock markets always exaggerate and if the Brexit becomes effective, it will undoubtedly cut into the revenue of some companies. Volatility in the stock market is caused by uncertainty, but Brexit is definitely not worse than Grexit; the latter put the whole Eurozone at risk.

[DIBO]

What does FVG his businessplan involve? Also flying from antwerp to london city?

Although this was a steady income source for VLM, the slots now belong to CityJet and they are organizing themselves with DAT Danish for this route, so this is a business opportunity lost for 'VLM Next'. That leaves the Vizion Air activities and whatever new business opportunities they can come up with...which is not spectacular as a starting base. I wish them good luck!

[convair]

What about the FDH operations? Couldn't the New VLM or even the curator continue them?

[AAI]

the DAT operation is only for a restricted period
once VLM+ is flying again
they will fly the LCY back

[FLYAIR10]

FVG can't take the whole company, because it is gone. He can only buy what is left. He will buy the F50s later, for now he wants to rent them from the liquidator. And nobody is going to buy the debts even if it is 'only' 9 million.

The F50's will have to be purchased.Renting is no option as the planes might be impounded here and there due to unpaid bills.
What could be the market price for these remaining F50's btw? anyone an idea?

[DIBO]

the DAT operation is only for a restricted period

is this a certainty (I hope so)?? Because DAT is training/rating some pilot for LCY operations... something you normally don't do just to cover a couple of weeks.

[Boeing767copilot]

FVG can't take the whole company, because it is gone. He can only buy what is left. He will buy the F50s later, for now he wants to rent them from the liquidator. And nobody is going to buy the debts even if it is 'only' 9 million.

The F50's will have to be purchased.Renting is no option as the planes might be impounded here and there due to unpaid bills.
What could be the market price for these remaining F50's btw? anyone an idea?

+/- 2,5 m euro/4 VLM F50

[sn26567]

Tomorrow (Tuesday) the FPS Mobility/Aviation will hear Freddy Van Gaever exposing his plans to re-launch VLM Airlines.

[jan_olieslagers]

... "FPS" possibly meaning "Federal Public Service", the equivalent of a ministry in most countries.

Allow me to insist once again: acronyms and abbreviations should not go unexplained, especially if limited to one country/church/language/...

[saratoga]

I am very curious about the outcome. I am wondering what future Van Gaever sees/has for the new company. Personally i don't see how again to build up a company with old F50 being based in antwerp.

Interesting times.

[Shengenzone]

Mr. Van Gaever is giving a press conference tomorrow!
VRT will be there to cover the story...