Acid-drop wrote:
It's funny how interpretations can vary.
Which is the best summary of the discussion of yesterday, to which I only come now due to work matters.
On one side there are those who like to simply echo the corporate PR and can't make it sound important enough, even if it is a just copy pasting the somewhat inflated rhetoric indeed:
...8 new routes...
While on the other hand you have those who look at the operational aspect from a purely Belgian aspect and reduce it all to:
UAE777 wrote:
Just 1 plane extra at BRU and nothing at CRL? Great.
None of which are entirely correct, in my view.
Since everybody did it already, let me add my reading of events to the discussion:
Ryanair definitely announced more growth for BRU than they did over the last 2 press events combined. Something which was high due as especially their upcoming summer expansion from BRU was very underwhelming, reason for which they didn't even bother to bring the CEO in to announce it then, probably.
Another (3rd) consecutive season of such underwhelming growth at BRU would have been really inappropriate in the light of the successes by direct competitors on routes which they said they were going to target 'soon', over 2 years ago. It was really a must not to be left behind almost.
UAE777 wrote:When I was at FR they said to us they were planning on going to 12 planes in BRU in less than 2 years!
Interesting remark!
Never read that: was that something internally communicated to you, if I may ask?
It would match the PR talk as well as the forum hints by some others about a very rapid and aggressive growth of which they claimed to have seen the plans, one which didn't exactly materialize so far.
In contrast to their plans with BRU, there's a flat growth curve projected for CRL according to an article in De Tijd (based on the Q&A session afterwards), despite the logically upbeaten PR about new routes and frequencies, so obviously an equal number of destinations will get their frequencies axed and even entirely shifted to BRU, which was already reported meanwhile (see above).
All in all, It comes down to a plan which is better than what we have come to seen from them over the last year or so, and it is a much needed reaction to the fact they have been given a much tougher time on the Belgian market than they thought they'd only have, which is good.
The most important part of it all however, one which hasn't been extensively discussed yet, is that all of this is going to come into effect as from November only at the earliest, whereas we're just in the first month of 2016! As such, they are now effectively announcing things for 2017 almost, while fostering the idea that it is something which will come 'soon' and thus comparing against others in 2016.
It really is medium term planning, I'd say, especially in the light of this topic which tends to focus on their performance over the course of 201
6.
Stij wrote:
My bets:
The race between SN and FR will be tight again with my money on SN.
CRL, keep the plans for the extra terminal in the fridge, the expansion is in BRU.
For the 2016 outlook and the 'race' like you call it Stij, ideally I'd prefer to wait for the first few months of the year to have a better look at how competitors like Brussels Airlines have planned their growth (they didn't communicate their targets publically, I think?), but given the fact they will reportedly add at least 1 long haul plane, and several planes on European routes within a couple of weeks already, it looks like they may be aiming at growth figures above those of last year and the year before that.
It's now the 3rd year in a row ryanair claims to have an offer which will make them the biggest, and they have failed to deliver on that twice, something we both successfully called bluff somewhere in summer each time, so JAN figures will be most interesting to watch, as those will provide us with first guidance of where we may see brussels airlines go over 2016.
As for CRL's expansion: I'd definitely go ahead with it, as it's clear they need to grow to be able to diversify their customer base and be ready for when ryanair transfers even more volume to BRU: I've learnt here they did it to BCN and DUB (or as good as?), and are going to do it to MAD too? I could imagine their Milan operations to be undergoing the same fate as Barcelona/Girona too over time, so CRL better be ready to host other airlines as I doubt it's such a tempting prospect for them to be considered the place of choice for low volume, low frequency, leisure routes? What wider economic gains does the Walloon region expect from serving as the exit point for Belgian holiday makers?
