Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

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DeltaWiskey
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by DeltaWiskey » 28 Oct 2019, 19:23

If you average out over all airlines across the world, brand new aircraft will have a very similar total operating cost compared to 2nd hand, until they reach an age of 20-25y. Then heavy maintenance visits become the main cost driver.

For new aircraft, lease / loan payments are high, but maintenance costs (component, engine and heavy maintenance contracts) are cheaper. As these aircraft age, the component contracts and heavy maintenance go up (you usually get a big discount for young aircraft).
As there are many people in all airlines in the world calculating the exact differences, just like there are people at Airbus & Boeing and the leasing companies. When a new type of aircraft is launched, the OEM's can charge a premium as high as "the economic advantage" over the previous generation. Lessors will adjust their prices for 2nd hand aircraft accordingly until a balance is reached again.

When the economy is doing well, the demand for aircraft increases, and both new and 2nd hand price go up. When there is a downturn, all prices are going down.

In the end, the most important is when you sign the contracts.
If you have the balance sheet to sign or renew a contract when is economy is a poor state (think big, like the Ryanair order after 9/11), you will have an advantage over the competition.

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Atlantis
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by Atlantis » 28 Oct 2019, 21:16

nordikcam wrote:
28 Oct 2019, 15:45
Atlantis wrote:
28 Oct 2019, 15:27

So put aside this very narrow Belgian way of thinking and dare to invest in something new
It is the Germans who drive SN and not the narrow-minded spirit of any Belgian, right?
And what it brings???? According to an unexpected decision again of the CEO of LH they are now on their own legs and has to finance the future by themself and they keep BRU short of every new Star airline. Maybe they saved them for everything stand still for the moment while our neighbours are growing

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Atlantis
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by Atlantis » 28 Oct 2019, 21:18

DeltaWiskey wrote:
28 Oct 2019, 19:23
If you average out over all airlines across the world, brand new aircraft will have a very similar total operating cost compared to 2nd hand, until they reach an age of 20-25y. Then heavy maintenance visits become the main cost driver.

For new aircraft, lease / loan payments are high, but maintenance costs (component, engine and heavy maintenance contracts) are cheaper. As these aircraft age, the component contracts and heavy maintenance go up (you usually get a big discount for young aircraft).
As there are many people in all airlines in the world calculating the exact differences, just like there are people at Airbus & Boeing and the leasing companies. When a new type of aircraft is launched, the OEM's can charge a premium as high as "the economic advantage" over the previous generation. Lessors will adjust their prices for 2nd hand aircraft accordingly until a balance is reached again.

When the economy is doing well, the demand for aircraft increases, and both new and 2nd hand price go up. When there is a downturn, all prices are going down.

In the end, the most important is when you sign the contracts.
If you have the balance sheet to sign or renew a contract when is economy is a poor state (think big, like the Ryanair order after 9/11), you will have an advantage over the competition.
Exactly Delta Whiskey, this is what I mean

convair
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by convair » 29 Oct 2019, 00:02

Atlantis wrote:
28 Oct 2019, 15:27
convair wrote:
28 Oct 2019, 12:29
It's all very well to say the B787 and/or the A321 would be better fits for SN. However, I would like to see their comparative rent and operation costs with those of the current A330s.

You have to invest in the future. It costs, for sure. But it costs also if your planes are all the time on the ground, re-booking, hotels. And you are flying with very old birds which costs you in fuel. Newer ones are much more fuel efficient.
Most of the very old birds are now gone and the problems are still there.
Atlantis wrote:
28 Oct 2019, 15:27

If you stand still and all the time think that tomorrow will be better, you lose
So put aside this very narrow Belgian way of thinking and dare to invest in something new
No standing still, but, on the contrary, knowing the figures enables you to take bold decisions at the right time. Since when is knowing what you're doing "a very narrow Belgian way of thinking"?
If you understood that I suggested to do nothing, read my post again, but this time putting first your brains into gear.

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Atlantis
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by Atlantis » 29 Oct 2019, 09:54

convair wrote:
29 Oct 2019, 00:02
Atlantis wrote:
28 Oct 2019, 15:27
convair wrote:
28 Oct 2019, 12:29
It's all very well to say the B787 and/or the A321 would be better fits for SN. However, I would like to see their comparative rent and operation costs with those of the current A330s.

You have to invest in the future. It costs, for sure. But it costs also if your planes are all the time on the ground, re-booking, hotels. And you are flying with very old birds which costs you in fuel. Newer ones are much more fuel efficient.
Most of the very old birds are now gone and the problems are still there.
Atlantis wrote:
28 Oct 2019, 15:27

If you stand still and all the time think that tomorrow will be better, you lose
So put aside this very narrow Belgian way of thinking and dare to invest in something new
No standing still, but, on the contrary, knowing the figures enables you to take bold decisions at the right time. Since when is knowing what you're doing "a very narrow Belgian way of thinking"?
If you understood that I suggested to do nothing, read my post again, but this time putting first your brains into gear.
I'm not speaking about you, I'm speaking about the typical Belgian attitude. They just sit and watch how everything is disappearing. There is no investment in what really matters.

737MAX
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by 737MAX » 29 Oct 2019, 10:42

Couldn’t agree more with you, Atlantis.
Sadly enough that’s how many things disappear from the country, especially in aviation.

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BrightCedars
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by BrightCedars » 29 Oct 2019, 11:18

Despite having a younger long haul fleet made up with the latest version of a classic aircraft coming from reputable operators, SN still operates in what remains one of the most difficult area in the world, although I'm sure there has been progress since Sabena's days. And we all know that they cannot financially cannot aford keeping spare rotations everyday with such a relatively small fleet.

Now for those who share the view that they need to put their house in order and then regrow organically, I beg to differ. Money has never been so cheap and if there was a will at LH Group level to hasten the transformation while making SN (more) profitable, it would sure be happening.

On longhaul, SN should certainly seek to activate all possible Star Alliance JV's and codeshares with players present in BRU such as AC, UA, ET, TG, TK & NH and increase interline agreements with those not here (yet) e.g. LatAm, SA & SQ. They should put all their efforts in reinforcing their Africa offering in terms of destinations and frequencies.

On shorthaul, it's a bloodbath. So I guess concentrating on key business, African connectivity and leisure routes where they have a partner (tbd) and regional business routes (not within a few hours by train) is where they belong.

theeuropean
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by theeuropean » 29 Oct 2019, 11:40

I also concur that SN need better integration with other Star Alliance partners. Obviously for some partners it depends much more on LH (they also need an attitude shake up but that is just my opinion).

I also wish that SN would collaborate much more with SNCB/NMBS. It would be nice to get some Eurocity trains going to Luxembourg with just stops at Namur and Arlon but I doubt that would happen.

If the fleet is too big in winter, but no real spare capacity in summer, could they not do some ACMI work to earn some money there?

These are just some ideas out of the top of my head for now.

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Atlantis
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by Atlantis » 29 Oct 2019, 22:12

To shrink the fleet and number of destinations will make it more attractive for the competition. SN will lose market share. It will be much more difficult to come back and win pax for your airline.

Regular airlines and LCC will fill the gap.

This process will cost SN much more. Aviation is the mirror of how your country is performing. JV is also politics. And see there how weak everything is.

AMS is almost on lock regarding slots but KLM is still growing and making new interesting JV. LHR is so saturated but still airlines are opening new lines.

BRU is like an oase where almost nothing is moving but where are huge possibilities. Lack of ambition and too much focus on everything green

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babolat-blast
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by babolat-blast » 31 Oct 2019, 20:42

Does someone know if OO-SFB has been repainted?

lucas
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by lucas » 11 Nov 2019, 08:42

Is it correct that OO-SFW (A333) is leaving the fleet today? It took off coming straight out of the hangar. Then this would be it's last flight:https://www.flightradar24.com/BEL9955/22cd60e9

EDIT: arrived at St. Athan, UK

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CTBke
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by CTBke » 11 Nov 2019, 11:48

babolat-blast wrote:
31 Oct 2019, 20:42
Does someone know if OO-SFB has been repainted?
no money for repainting, they just installed the new cabin that's all
Citybird
The flying dream

convair
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by convair » 11 Nov 2019, 12:49

lucas wrote:
11 Nov 2019, 08:42
Is it correct that OO-SFW (A333) is leaving the fleet today? It took off coming straight out of the hangar. Then this would be it's last flight:https://www.flightradar24.com/BEL9955/22cd60e9

EDIT: arrived at St. Athan, UK
Maybe not for scrapping as there was a 10 minutes part at 41000 ft.

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sn26567
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by sn26567 » 11 Nov 2019, 20:43

convair wrote:
11 Nov 2019, 12:49
lucas wrote:
11 Nov 2019, 08:42
Is it correct that OO-SFW (A333) is leaving the fleet today? It took off coming straight out of the hangar. Then this would be it's last flight:https://www.flightradar24.com/BEL9955/22cd60e9

EDIT: arrived at St. Athan, UK
Maybe not for scrapping as there was a 10 minutes part at 41000 ft.
Strange routing, if you ask me! What was the purpose of that flight? Demonstration for a potential buyer?
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DeltaWiskey
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by DeltaWiskey » 11 Nov 2019, 21:22

It is probably the acceptance flight by the lessor/owner, it covers a complete flight as well as some emergency procedures. SFW will be parted out, this was very likely its very last flight. Ever.

convair
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by convair » 12 Nov 2019, 01:31

DeltaWiskey wrote:
11 Nov 2019, 21:22
It is probably the acceptance flight by the lessor/owner, it covers a complete flight as well as some emergency procedures. SFW will be parted out, this was very likely its very last flight. Ever.
What's the point of doing an acceptance flight for a plane bound to be parted out?

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cathay belgium
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by cathay belgium » 12 Nov 2019, 07:09

Hi,
Checking spare Parts ?
CXB
New types flown : A223,AN24,AW139,B737MAX8,B763nonER,DH Dragonrapide,EMB110 Bandeirante, Shorts360,Autogire MTOsport2010

DeltaWiskey
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by DeltaWiskey » 26 Nov 2019, 10:44

OO-SFH is currently flying from HKG to AMM for cabin retrofit. It's the last one (7th) of the current A330 refleet program.

Duke
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by Duke » 26 Nov 2019, 17:11

DeltaWiskey wrote:
26 Nov 2019, 10:44
OO-SFH is currently flying from HKG to AMM for cabin retrofit. It's the last one (7th) of the current A330 refleet program.
Is it also painted in the modified Brussels Airlines colours with the white belly, like OO-SFF?
How long does the cabin retrofit usually take?

convair
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by convair » 26 Nov 2019, 17:56

Duke wrote:
26 Nov 2019, 17:11
DeltaWiskey wrote:
26 Nov 2019, 10:44
OO-SFH is currently flying from HKG to AMM for cabin retrofit. It's the last one (7th) of the current A330 refleet program.
Is it also painted in the modified Brussels Airlines colours with the white belly, like OO-SFF?
How long does the cabin retrofit usually take?
For SFE, it took about 2 months.

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