Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

[Inquirer]

No .... if RAM refuses to stop flying there than yes ... Commercial traffic to Morocco should be halted once ebola starts manifesting itself there.

Well, it has, there have been a case as far back as August already, when Ebola in West-Africa was just a small problem still, so chances are fairly high there are numerous cases in Morocco by now: the only reason why we haven't heard of Ebola in Morocco ever since, could very well be because:
1- Morocco doesn't have the processes to closely follow up Ebola during the initial 'start up phase' so to say,
2- Morocco probably doesn't want to alarm the millions of tourists it heavily relies on for its income.

[sean1982]

No .... chances are not high ... incubation period is 2-7 days ... any case would have been reported allready and with high infection rate and mortality rate, people dying by the bush would not be hideable.

[Inquirer]

Sean, I just googled Ebola and Morocco, and there are numerous reports of Ebola in Morocco at the very beginning of this epidemy. The case was first brought to the attention by the Liberian Ministery of Health it seems, after which Morocco reluctantly confirmed the first case.
Ever since, Ebola became a much bigger problem in Africa, but Morocco has no other confirmed cases. Because they don't have them like you think? Or because they keep the lid on them to protect tourism?
Who shall tell?

[Flanker2]

Exactly why commercial traffic SHOULD BE STOPPED .... so i doesnt reach Morocco in a few hours and so it cannot be spread indeed to the rest of europe and the world. Same for SN flights btw!

That's the whole point of this discussion ... you just made the best point possible!

Excuse me, but there are probably tens of one-stop links between Liberia and our country, not just Morocco, you know? Are you going to break up all those links and while at it, also put a fence around Liberia, to prevent land border crossings? You can't just quarantine a whole county!

Nope. SN and RAM are the only one-stop links available.
All other options require crossing closed borders. Remember that neighboring countries have closed their borders for this crisis.

I think that TB is the most comparable thing to Ebola. Transmission through bodily fluids, death in many cases. One third of the world population is infected, the difference is only in the mortality rate and the speed. If Ebola spreads like TB, we're in for a bumpy ride.

Oh well, Morocco or no Morocco, Ebola is so spectacular that you can't miss it. The Morocco cases probably flew over with RAM, which again proves that air links form a major risk.

What you are saying is that driving faster is safer. It makes no sense.

Anyway, the public opinion will probably force SN and RAM to stop their flights. Give it a few more weeks, a few more Ebola fly-overs and a few Belgian deaths.

[sn26567]

BREAKING

The Spanish nurse who treated an Ebola victim in a Madrid clinic "tests positive" for virus in first infection outside Africa.

Does anyone remember how this Spanish Ebola victim (a missionary who did not survive, if I remember well) was repatriated to Spain? I think it was in a specially equipped medical plane.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29514920

[sean1982]

Should have never been allowed on a plane in the first place ... another reason to stop commercial travel.
Infected people should not be moved from the countries .... POINT

[airazurxtror]

Does anyone remember how this Spanish Ebola victim (a missionary who did not survive, if I remember well) was repatriated to Spain?

http://online.wsj.com/articles/missiona ... 1407835487

Rev. Miguel Pajares, a 75-year-old missionary, was being treated in a special isolation unit of Madrid's Carlos III Hospital, where he had arrived Thursday after being flown out of Liberia in a Spanish Air Force medical jet.

[Passenger]

The WHO (World Health Organization) doens't ask for a ban on commercial flights:
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/en/

MSF (Doctors Without Borders) doens't ask for a ban on commercial flights:
http://www.msf.org/diseases/ebola

The American CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) doens't ask for a ban on commercial flights:
http://www.cdc.gov/24-7/protectingpeopl ... etectives/

I have no commercial interests with Brussels Airlines, Royal Air Maroc, Air France, Türkish Airlines and/or any other airline serving the risk area, but I fully trust these medical experts.

[sean1982]

Just like that spanish nurse trusted that she wouldnt get sick with the measures in place ... And yet she did

I would go with university of boston's opinion.

[Passenger]

Just like that spanish nurse trusted that she wouldnt get sick ... And yet she did.

I would go with university of boston's opinion.

Yep. Sure you do.

Euh, what did they say again about Spain? France 65%, London Heathrow 50%, Belgium 40%, Spain 17%.

I would go for Madame Soleil.

[FLYAIR10]

Interesting article : Fighting Ebola: Why an African Travel Ban Won't Help ...the U.S.

http://mashable.com/2014/10/06/against- ... feedburner

grtz

[sean1982]

Just like that spanish nurse trusted that she wouldnt get sick ... And yet she did.

I would go with university of boston's opinion.

Yep. Sure you do.

Euh, what did they say again about Spain? France 65%, London Heathrow 50%, Belgium 40%, Spain 17%.

I would go for Madame Soleil.

If that priest wouldnt have been put on an airplane, that nurse would not be infected in the first place.
Comparing the university of Boston with madame soleil is not only hautain but on top of all foolish.
Maybe you can go overthere for some volunteer work? You dont seem to be too worried

[airazurxtror]

I fully trust these medical experts.

You must be very young.
With time, you'll learn that "experts" - medical or other - are never to be fully and blindly trusted.

[flightlover]

I fully trust these medical experts.

You must be very young.
With time, you'll learn that "experts" - medical or other - are never to be fully and blindly trusted.

I'll second that.

On the discussion of stopping air bridges to the infected area's. It will make it harder for the disease to travel to our region but it will never stop it. only a well guarded fence would do that as people will always try to flee the hotspot. The easy calculation of 'in 7 days they will not cross the border' is short sighted in my opinion.

Why? You make the assumption every one fleeing the hotspot will do that on it's own. But the reality is that people are like a flock of sheep. They do such things in group as it will give them more chance of success.
However If a group of lets say 15 people go on a hike, and only one has been effected a day before they leave, they can carry the disease way further as it will take some days before it will be apparent that one of them is infected.
As hygiene isn't first concern when one is in this situation he can contaminate others in the group with ease before they know it. And then the cycle starts all over again.

Cutting the air links will surely slow Ebola down but will never stop it spreading, even to Europe.

One last side note:

If Ebola mutated so it can be transmitted by mosquito's (easier than for it to get airborne), how would you suggest to stop it then?

[Lysexpat]

The Spanish nurse who treated an Ebola victim in a Madrid clinic "tests positive" for virus in first infection outside Africa.

This confirms what I wrote earlier: there might be, yet unknown, ways in which you can get infected. This nurse only had to take care about one patient and she was highly trained in treating communicable diseases, this must set off an alarm.
Another danger in SN continuing his flights is the rich local, who knows he (probably) got infected and who also knows that if you pay 5000€ for an ROB-BRU ticket, you chances of survival will, al least double when you make it to the western world.
Airlines, which claim safety is their first concern should not be flying to Ebola-countries!

[Flanker2]

Interesting article : Fighting Ebola: Why an African Travel Ban Won't Help ...the U.S.

http://mashable.com/2014/10/06/against- ... feedburner

grtz

Ending commercial flights and a travel ban are totally different concepts.
A travel ban would also prevent transport of medical personnel with military or chartered flights, which would indeed impeed efforts to fight Ebola.

We want the end of COMMERCIAL flights, so that only relevant and trained medical personnel is allowed in and out of the affected countries. Not a travel ban.

[FlightMate]

Agree, we want to stop airlines (all airlines) flying there (currently only SN and RAM)
I'm sure Sean would be more than happy for Ryanair to stop flying to Morocco if the epidemic spreads over there.

OR we need better measures in place than what we have now (temperature checks are a joke. Blood samples and quarantine, unrealistic, so I actually have no idea...)

[Inquirer]

Interesting that the first case in Europe is in Spain, one of the countries with a very low risk rate estimation: the human behaviour doesn't match very well with theoretical mathematical models indeed.

Other than that, given we now have one case -and possibly more cases- of a confirmed Ebola infection in Spain, shall we quarantine that country too now? Or is there some threshold before which you say: enough is enough? And why would that be a valid threshold? Isn't that threshold driven by economic motives too then? And why take a calculated small risk in this case then? A full quarantine -as from the very first cases- was pushed really hard in the case of west Africa by some, so why not be as harsh here? And when you are as harsh, what if WE have a case? Are we going to lock ourselves up inside our country for many months, basically killing ourselves economically? Just a few questions which show that it's not as simple any longer when it's your very own case you have to judge on.

[airazurxtror]

There is a difference between those West African countries with thousands of cases and a spreading epidemic - and a few Occidental countries with one or two cases.
I hope you are just provocative (for once) - because, if you don't understand that ...

[RoMax]

(all airlines) flying there (currently only SN and RAM)

Next week Gambia Bird will relaunch flights between Freetown and London (LGW).