Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

[koja78]

http://www.mobs-lab.org/ebola.html

Check the graphs

[sean1982]

RoMax is absolutely right: you can't stop Africans from traveling. One may forbit Brussels Airlines to fly to risk areas, but they will find an airport to fly to their relatives in Lagos, Accra, Dakar, Paris, Brussels or Texas.

No, he is absolutely not ... the incubation period is too short and the victim would in most cases be too sick to travel that far to alternative airports.

Yesterday "some" were accused by romax that expert advice was ignored ... Now that it is written black on white that stopping commercial flights or at least reducing them by 80% would reduce the risk of spreading ebola to other parts of the world with at least 50% "some" seem to do exactly what they accuse others to do.

[sn26567]

http://www.mobs-lab.org/ebola.html

Check the graphs

Interesting to note that the UK and the US, which do not fly to Ebola countries, have a much higher risk to import Ebola than Belgium which still has direct flights to those countries!

[Inquirer]

No, he is absolutely not ... the incubation period is too short and the victim would in most cases be too sick to travel that far to alternative airports.

No idea if that is true, but remember the first infected person which reaches Belgium needn't be the one who also picked up the virus himself in one of the affected countries.
Somebody may be sick without knowing it, start to travel around, make it half way to Belgium (or whatever destination he had in mind) an die there, but meanwhile transmit it to somebody else there who in turns makes it to Belgium on his travel.
That's what an epidemy is all about: it's a kind of a relay, so for instance the infected person may make it to say 'just' Morocco on his way to say France, and then other people will take it from Morocco to us: closing off Belgium from Morocco is as good as impossible, you know that as well, so in really the whole point of isolating a complete set of nations is pretty theoretical, only.
In fact, all this reminds me of all those mathematical models which showed that after a few months we'd have a nice statistical mix of different coins from each of the euro countries in our portfolio: we all know from observation that such isn't the case, even after more than 10 years of using the Euro: it's mainly Belgian and our neigbouring countries only and the reason is people don't behave like mathematical models assume they will and is why everything related to economics (which this study is, as it's a nice example of a practical application of a metronomic model) is no exact science and why it's part of the faculty of 'human sciences', together with law, religion and psychology at most universities, rather than with 'exact sciences' like chemistry, physics or mathematics where most people would situate it!

[sean1982]

Some are still trying to 'prove' that SN is the only one guilty of spreading Ebola to the world. Comments from specialists from all over the world saying that banning commercial flights will NOT prevent the spreading of Ebola infected people to other parts of the world are simply ignored. But what's even worse in my opinion, is that the credibility and expertise of these specialists are undermined by these people, only because that's a point of view which is not against SN and RAM.

Seems we've got the exact opposite situation ... I rest my case

[Inquirer]

Some are still trying to 'prove' that SN is the only one guilty of spreading Ebola to the world. Comments from specialists from all over the world saying that banning commercial flights will NOT prevent the spreading of Ebola infected people to other parts of the world are simply ignored. But what's even worse in my opinion, is that the credibility and expertise of these specialists are undermined by these people, only because that's a point of view which is not against SN and RAM.

Seems we've got the exact opposite situation ... I rest my case

Which I did for a long time, because like I said yesterday, several people here have an opinion about this which is based mainly by the expected outcome, not by the facts.

If you look at the facts alone, then the conclusion is that is doesn't really matter much whether or not you cut direct airlinks, because as I've repeatedly said: this will reach us on foot if it doesn't get controlled, which I am sure it will: people are very good at doing the right thing, but only after they first tried all the wrong options.

[sean1982]

But the chances are at least 50% smaller

This goes a lot futher than the traditional "SN can't do anything wrong" discussion .... hundreds or thousands of people's live are at stake here

[Passenger]

UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response statement for clarification: No threat that Ebola is airborne

Following recent media reports, the UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER) seeks to clarify that Ebola is not an airborne disease. At this point in time we have no evidence and do not anticipate that the Ebola virus is mutating to become airborne.

However, there are real risks and concerns with this outbreak: every day more people are becoming infected and more are dying because they cannot get the care they need. Energy needs to be focused on swiftly addressing the real needs and gaps in communities affected by this disease.

The Ebola virus only spreads through contact with bodily fluids. The World Health Organization (WHO) monitors the virus closely. Viruses do mutate but it is a complex process that takes time. Right now, as advised by WHO, the safest thing anyone can do is avoid direct contact with bodily fluids of people who have Ebola, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with fluids.

Source:
http://www.un.org/ebolaresponse/pdf/UNM ... elease.pdf

[Inquirer]

But the chances are at least 50% smaller

This goes a lot futher than the traditional "SN can't do anything wrong" discussion .... hundreds or thousands of people's live are at stake here

Let's think about it for a minute, without the all too common references, shall we?

There's a very good chance that this virus makes it to North Africa in the traditional (non-aviation) way over the coming weeks, if it hasn't already, btw.

Now, given the very high number of flights from Belgium to destinations in North Africa due to the ethnic realities of our country, one of the many daily routine flights from Morocco, Tunisia or Algeria may actually be the route via which the virus ultimately makes it to Belgium first, much more so than that single odd non-stop flight from Liberia itself, because as Andre noted, the reason Belgium is rated with a lower risk than the UK despite hosting direct flights, is because there aren't many immigrants from Liberia living here: they just transit through BRU. With North African destinations, the situation is completely different, of course and so THOSE may be the real high potential routes in a couple of weeks if this isn't contained asap.

Now, wouldn't it be ironic if say jetair or if I may say so, Ryanair actually imports the virus on one of their many daily flights popular with immigrants coming back from a family meeting in their native towns in North Africa? It's not such an impossible scenario, you know, given the high number of immigrants from those countries we have living here in our cities.

[sean1982]

Wow, I took only 11 pages before Ryanair was mentioned this time :/ WTF ... I'm done

It would take a lot longer by the way, if not travelling by air, than the standard incubation period to reach Morocco by any other means of transport. if they can get past the border first of all, that is

[sean1982]

http://www.mobs-lab.org/ebola.html

Check the graphs

Interesting to note that the UK and the US, which do not fly to Ebola countries, have a much higher risk to import Ebola than Belgium which still has direct flights to those countries!

Do you know how many french passports I see on a daily basis on FR flights in BRU??

[Inquirer]

Wow, I took only 11 pages before Ryanair was mentioned this time :/ WTF ... I'm done

Why can't it be mentioned here?
Doesn't it have flights to Morocco too then?
Or is it suddenly off topic, because it is your employer: indeed, the positions switch very quickly here, as you've noticed yourself, but the virus really doesn't look at the airline brand or the transportation mean used.

It would take a lot longer by the way, if not travelling by air, than the standard incubation period to reach Morocco by any other means of transport.

Doesn't Air Maroc fly to Liberia too, and daily even?
If so, it only takes a couple of hours to make it to Morocco and what happens after that, is exactly what you've been so scared of: it spreads further locally and then decides to infect somebody who's on a visit to relatives in Morocco and flies back to Belgium a couple of days later on one of the many flights there from Brussels Airlines, Jetair, Air Moroc, Thomas Cook, Air Arabia, whatever company you can think of, but clearly not on Ryanair then?

What I am trying to say is that you might be a fair bit too obsessed with that single once or twice weekly direct flight which seems to be getting at least some sort of scrutinizing done, whereas you completely ignore that meanwhile there are litterally tens of flights daily from soon to be equally high potential areas which are operating completely unmonitored even.

[sean1982]

Doesn't Air Maroc fly to Liberia too, and daily even?
If so, it only takes a couple of hours to make it to Morocco and what happens after that, is exactly what you've been so scared of: it spreads further locally and then decides to infect somebody who's on a visit to relatives in Morocco and flies back to Belgium a couple of days later on one of the many flights there from Brussels Airlines, Jetair, Air Moroc, Thomas Cook, Air Arabia, whatever company you can think of, but clearly not on Ryanair then?

Exactly why commercial traffic SHOULD BE STOPPED .... so i doesnt reach Morocco in a few hours and so it cannot be spread indeed to the rest of europe and the world. Same for SN flights btw!

That's the whole point of this discussion ... you just made the best point possible!

[Inquirer]

Exactly why commercial traffic SHOULD BE STOPPED .... so i doesnt reach Morocco in a few hours and so it cannot be spread indeed to the rest of europe and the world. Same for SN flights btw!

That's the whole point of this discussion ... you just made the best point possible!

Excuse me, but there are probably tens of one-stop links between Liberia and our country, not just Morocco, you know? Are you going to break up all those links and while at it, also put a fence around Liberia, to prevent land border crossings? You can't just quarantine a whole county!

Besides, in the absence of Morocco halting their flights (we have zero influence over either Morocco's as well as Liberia's bilateral decisions), are you now also calling for the immediate end of all commercial flights between Belgium and Morocco then? And what with all the Belgian-Moroccans who drive home every year or the busses which leave from Brussels every day? No more ferries between Spain And North Africa either then, I suppose? And what about Tunisia, Algeria etc? Same regime? Not very realistic, as I hope you understand.

[Stij]

Gentlemen, please, cool down...

We understand Sean's point that stopping all air traffic to / from infected countries makes it more difficult for the virus to reach us and Inquirer's point that it will reach us eventually by other means.

Cheers,

Stij

[sean1982]

I am indeed talking about ALL commercial flights as recommended by the university studies, like I said 10 times allready. Stop beating around the bush please. And as RAM and SN are the only ones still flying there it has to come either through BRU or CMN.

Essentials aid, supplies and personel can be provided for with special relief flights with special quarantaine rules before the flight.

As for spreading through other means of transport ... most border crossings are allready closed off ... and trying to get to other countries through other "roads" like through the jungle or other unchartered territories would take so long that the person(s) wouldnt make it very far before becoming too sick.

[Inquirer]

I am indeed talking about ALL commercial flights as recommended by the university studies, like I said 10 times allready. Stop beating around the bush please. And as RAM and SN are the only ones still flying there it has to come either through BRU or CMN.

Excuse me, but there's really no need to take such an agressive attutude towards me.

If anybody is beating about the bush it is you actually, because I have asked you an explicit question to which you haven't replied yet: in the absence of Morocco halting all of it's flights, are you in favour we in Belgium halt all flights to Morocco from Belgium with immediate effect too together with the Liberia flights, given there has already been an Ebola case overthere as far back as early august, suggesting that by now there must be numerous undetected cases overthere? Or is that suddenly a step too far then?

The point is that it can come through many points, not just BRU or CMN (is that casablanka?): it can just as well come through any regional moroccan airport and if it does, that passenger is much more likely to be actually staying in Belgium, rather than 'just' transiting: on top of that, the number of passengers from Morocco to Belgium surely dwarfs the number of passengers from Liberia on a weekly basis.

[sean1982]

I'm gonna say for the eleventh time so I answered your question 10 times allready. You only read what you want to read ... ALL commercial flights to ebola countries should be halted as recommended by most recent studies. SN and RAM! Then there is no need to stop flying to northern africa.

[Inquirer]

I'm gonna say for the eleventh time ... ALL commercial flights to ebola countries should be halted as recommended by most recent studies. SN and RAM! Then there is no need to stop flying to northern africa.

Yes, you have made that point clear by now, but in the absence of RAM halting their flights (something we have no control over), you fail to make clear if you are in favour of halting all flights to North Africa from Belgium then, because that, we do have control over, despite it being something very urgent if you follow the logic of your isolationist point of view if I may call it that way for a second without looking at the possible consequences of such a decision.

You are very vocally asking from 'others' to do what is needed according to you, but you are giving at least the impression that you are very reluctant to do the same as soon as you are asked to, if I may say so.

[sean1982]

No, I'm not .... if RAM refuses to stop flying there than yes ... Commercial traffic to Morocco should be halted once ebola starts manifesting itself there. Every measure nescessary should be taken to prvent this from spreading. WHO has increased the mortality rate from 50% to 70% to anyone who gets the disease ...
I just cannot understand how your sympathy for an airline takes preference over hard facts like that