Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

[Flanker2]

People in the U.S. are not overreacting. Who knows where the virus has already spread in the U.S.? This guy has been running loose around Dallas loose for 4 days... New York and Los Angeles are not that far away either, just a few hours flying away. Also, don't forget that infected people who start to show symptoms will first think that they contracted a flu, until symptoms worsen significantly. During that period, they will put other people at risk, including doctors.

If people who have not travelled to Liberia recently get infected, then there is no controlling who or where it pops up.

I think that it's good that stocks are down, as it will push governments to take action, as most seem to be waiting it out without offering the much needed assistance.

[RoMax]

Nobody said there was no risk of an infected passenger flying out of Africa to another part of the world (which is still something different than infecting other passengers and causing a new outbreak in another country. But with the US its health system, the chance of the disease spreading is limited and very very limited chance of causing an epidemic.

Leaving asside the financial interests of SN, what's worth more at this moment, the risk of locking down Ebola countries even more (which in their case will make things worse instead of improve things) or the risk that a very limited amount of people that are infected, reach e.g. Europe or the US where they most probably will be detected quite fast (these people know they could have Ebola when they get sick and there is no reason for them to be afraid to seek help, people which are afraid is part of the problem in Africa). And if SN stops flying, what's going to be the difference actually? Tell me, because I don't know. RAM is still flying there and there will be more special chartered flights (which you could say is a good alternative for SN's operations anyway, well it isn't, if SN stops its services, the cost of fighting the epidemic with help of foreign people and supplies will increase significantly) which can also bring infected people to Europe, US, etc.

[sn26567]

On 19 September, there was indeed an SN flight that left Monrovia (ROB) with destination Brussels. Flight SN1247 was operated by OO-SFZ and left ROB at 20:20 to arrive in BRU the next day at 03:00.

SN1247 was probably one of the flights of the patient. But as explained in my previous post, there was zero risk for the other passengers on that flight.

A spokeswoman for Brussels Airlines, the only carrier that serves Monrovia from Brussels and one of the few international airlines that still flies to the Liberian capital, said: "We cannot exclude the fact that this passenger had been on board, but we cannot confirm it."

None of he U.S. airlines admits that the patient was on one of their flights.

Ebola Case in U.S. Gives Airline Investors the Jitters
Investors Try to Gauge the Potential Impact on Demand for Air Travel

http://online.wsj.com/news/article_emai ... MTMwNTExWj

[sean1982]

Sorry but that's bullsh*t .... Off course SN can confirm it. Check the name of the passenger with the passenger manifest and it's done! Or does SN not know the identity of the passengers they carry???

[Inquirer]

Yet the name of the passenger is reportedly being withheld by authorities, probably for privacy reasons?
US authorities are said to be so sure the person was not contagious during his travel, they haven't even bothered contacting the airline(s) involved, according to Bloomberg.com.

[sn26567]

His name is Mr. Thomas Eric Duncan, a Liberian national. The Liberian Information Minister confirms that the Ebola patient flew Brussels Airlines to the Belgian capital on Sept. 19.

His itinerary: ROB-BRU by SN1247 (A332), then UA951 BRU-IAD (B772) and UA822 IAD-DFW (A320).

[sn26567]

United Airlines is offering Ebola tests to the flight attendants who staffed the jets on the connecting flights that carried the Ebola patient.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-0 ... tient.html

[airazurxtror]

Belga) L'homme libérien porteur du virus Ebola, arrivé le 20 septembre au Texas après un vol à partir de son pays d'origine, avait menti lors du contrôle de santé effectué à l'aéroport, indique vendredi le journal libérien Front Page Africa. Alors qu'il avait été en contact avec des personnes infectées, l'homme a volontairement tu cette information et indiqué sur le formulaire de contrôle fourni à l'aéroport qu'il n'avait pas eu de contacts avec des malades dans les trois semaines précédentes, selon le journal.

En réalité, l'homme avait, 5 jours avant son départ le 19 septembre, aidé en connaissance de cause une femme enceinte infectée par le virus à trouver un hôpital. La femme est décédée peu après. Arrivé le 20 septembre au Texas, l'homme a quant à lui été diagnostiqué comme étant atteint d'Ebola quelques jours plus tard. Il se trouve depuis en quarantaine.

The man infected by Ebola who arrived in Texas via Brussels on 20 september had lied at the airport, mentioning at the control that he had not been in contact with an infected person since three weeks. In fact, 5 days before his departure from Liberia, he had helped an Ebola infected woman to find a hospital (she died shortly after).
------
Now, can one expect those passengers to tell the truth, when they know that if they do they will be denied boarding ? Let's be sensible.

[RoMax]

Gambia Bird will resume 2 weekly flights between Freetown and London Gatwick.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o ... n-corridor

There is a very interesting part in the article, though I doubt some here will take it serious as they don't take the WHO, IATA, CDC, Doctors without Borders, etc. serious either.

"Professor Peter Piot, the director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, one of the discoverers of the Ebola virus, welcomed the move.

“The news that these flights are being resumed to Freetown is very welcome,” he said. “The social and economic impacts of this Ebola outbreak are devastating, and cutting off the affected countries from the rest of the world makes the situation even worse.

“We need flights to continue to facilitate humanitarian efforts and support the economy. Stopping them will not stop the spread of the virus.”"

Peter Piot (from Belgium) was in 1976 part of the team that discovered the Ebola virus for the first time, examining a blood sample from a Belgian nun in Zaire in the Antwerp Institute of Tropical Medicine.

[convair]

Dr Piot was interviewed on BBC Hard talk yesterday. Very interesting. He also was instrumental in the fight against the HIV virus.

[Flanker2]

The CDC says that 1.4 million cases is now the year-end worst case scneario.
And "experts" continue to say that there is "paranoia" and exageration.
I'm going to defer to the CDC's judgement on this one.

1,4 million x 70% death rate = 1 million dead people.

Yes, sure. Nothing to be worried about as Dr. Piot says...

[RoMax]

And is that very same CDC asking to stop flying to/from these countries, no they don't. They only ask some precautionary measures from airlines.

[Flanker2]

I also don't exclude the possiblity of Ebola transmission on a flight.
On my last flight, I picked up a paper tissue that I found next to my feet, which I thought I dropped, only to realise that it was a paper mask with a spit of blood in it.
The guy sitting behind me kindly dropped it below my feet it seems... I was tired, otherwise I would have made a big deal of it.

I remind you that a seemingly innocent contact with the disease is as good as a death sentence.

[Flanker2]

United Airlines is offering Ebola tests to the flight attendants who staffed the jets on the connecting flights that carried the Ebola patient.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-0 ... tient.html

Interesting article. Especially this part:

Health officials haven’t said how Duncan reached Brussels. Belgium’s Brussels Airlines NV is the only carrier with service between Monrovia and the Belgian capital, though a spokesman, Wencke Lemmes, has said the company didn’t know whether it flew the patient.

Great to know that SN is taking their responsibilities


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-0 ... tient.html

[sn26567]

The two previous posts, insulting dr. Piot, are a shame for Luchtzak.be

Unbelievable, just unbelievable. :silent:

I agree, but Sukhoi-27 (the real name of what NATO calls Flanker) did not break any forum rule. No doubt that readers will judge him by what he writes.

[BAAV]

@Flanker: suggestion, please read Peter Piot's book :"Geen tijd te verliezen - Van ebola tot aids: een leven lang strijd tegen infectieziekten". It will help you to write informed posts about his achievements in the domains of fight against ebola and HIV spread

To go back to aviation: even if all flights were stopped it would not help in stopping the spread of ebola. It could reach us anyway even if there were no flights. Given the long incubation period it may well reach us over land and also via refugees that arrive in small boats on the Med Coast so in the interest of all better to contain it there. However I do believe the WHO reacted way too late

[Homo Aeroportus]

Hi Bart,

May I suggest you consider boosting the server?


Soon "some" will discover that MERS is coming.
With all the Hajjis returning from Saudi to their respective countries, we talk here of MILLIONS of people potentially bringing back home this corona virus.
Just kidding. Not all will be affected of course, possibly only 1 in 1000.

CDC has issued a MERS Alert.

CDC is working with the World Health Organization and other partners to understand the public health risks from this virus.
....Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth. Germs spread this way ...

Let's get real.
Ebola is a serious health threat indeed but as so many other things in our daily environment.
Awareness and proper practices is the key.
Panicking and spreading alarming "info" is of no use.

Have all a good evening

H.A.

[FlightMate]

I hope SN is acting in the background. They can easily find the pax name in the press and can contact passengers who were sitting next to him and cabin crew on the flight. Just to let them know.

Beeing proactive can't hurt.

[sn26567]

Dr Piot was interviewed on BBC Hard talk yesterday. Very interesting. He also was instrumental in the fight against the HIV virus.

There is also an interesting article about Prof Piot in the Financial Times:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/da2cf694 ... z3FBDDcTJ4

Not much to do with aviation, but the discoverer of the virus is quoted in this sentence:

Ebola is not an especially contagious virus. Prof Piot has said that he “wouldn’t be worried” to sit next to an infected person on the London Underground, “as long as they don’t vomit on you or something”.

[airazurxtror]

Ebola is not an especially contagious virus. Prof Piot has said that he “wouldn’t be worried” to sit next to an infected person on the London Underground, “as long as they don’t vomit on you or something”.

Better read that than be blind.