Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

[Miqvell]

Today OO-SBC first flight Brussel - Copenhagen but canceled. Is there more information?
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/oo-sbc#

Flight number is wrong so must be a FR24 issue.

[Miqvell]

OO-SBD was spotted, which means only one left now.

[TimTam]

Slightly off topic (sorry) I thought I would get used to the new livery, but I don't (and probably never will)

[TimTam]

I wonder why SN is not getting Embraer 170 or A220-100 present within the Group to serve thinner routes and to increase feeder service ?

[nordikcam]

How long has OO-SFC been in Manchester ? Thx

[JOVAN2]

Slightly off topic (sorry) I thought I would get used to the new livery, but I don't (and probably never will)

Hope you sleep well.

[oldblueeyes]

I wonder why SN is not getting Embraer 170 or A220-100 present within the Group to serve thinner routes and to increase feeder service ?

Again, you have to see the big picture as the brand is not independent.

The strategy within the group is to simply operations and thus increase their efficiency - therefore SN aims to reduce complexity to two aircraft models operated on its own; A320 and A333.

If on niche routs money can be earned - it makes more sense to look for outsourced wetleases; the advantage is to reduce own complexity if a leased subfleet is fairly small and there will always be a direct economic case if this is worth or not.

Now, with respect to feeding - the role of the BRU hub is not to feed intra Europe - that's the role of MUC. And for extensive long haul FRA and ZRH are having their own share and offers and with 20+ long haul aircraft ITA would become it's share as well.

So the situation is likely as following, since SN is flying long haul to Africa, only:
- either you have a fair portion of transfer pax and then they would come from larger airports, than you would have a decent P2P demand as well
- from small airports, just to catch 3-4 pax for long haul, the premium of cost for the rest may not be mirrored by the prices you can achieve

VIE and BRU have both strong LCC competition next door and the money needs to be earned in P2P, primarly. Thus efficient narrowbody operations are crucial.

Last but not least, coming to your suggested aircraft:

- EMB170 - nobody wants it, LOT is trying to get their own sold since more than a decade , due to poor economics, besides that, they are not part of the group fleet so would add complexity - remember SN is part of a group and it can choose from the pool the group is considering best to leverage its buying power
- A221 - can SN afford it? at current profits not, as these aircraft would be new; besides that even Swiss was reducing its order and switching to the - - A223 as sweet spot; the only true niche market for the A221 would be LCY, if BRU would have the traffic volumes for it

[nathan_06]

Monday 31 March OO-SBC first commercial flight

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/oo-sbc#

[DannyVDB]

You mean Sunday, no?

[nathan_06]

You mean Sunday, no?

Yes Sunday my bad

[crew1990]

Actually, first flight for OO-SBC take place tonight to Marseille. Coming back tomorow morning.

[JOVAN2]

I wonder why SN is not getting Embraer 170 or A220-100 present within the Group to serve thinner routes and to increase feeder service ?

Again, you have to see the big picture as the brand is not independent.

The strategy within the group is to simply operations and thus increase their efficiency - therefore SN aims to reduce complexity to two aircraft models operated on its own; A320 and A333.

If on niche routs money can be earned - it makes more sense to look for outsourced wetleases; the advantage is to reduce own complexity if a leased subfleet is fairly small and there will always be a direct economic case if this is worth or not.

Now, with respect to feeding - the role of the BRU hub is not to feed intra Europe - that's the role of MUC. And for extensive long haul FRA and ZRH are having their own share and offers and with 20+ long haul aircraft ITA would become it's share as well.

So the situation is likely as following, since SN is flying long haul to Africa, only:
- either you have a fair portion of transfer pax and then they would come from larger airports, than you would have a decent P2P demand as well
- from small airports, just to catch 3-4 pax for long haul, the premium of cost for the rest may not be mirrored by the prices you can achieve

VIE and BRU have both strong LCC competition next door and the money needs to be earned in P2P, primarly. Thus efficient narrowbody operations are crucial.

Last but not least, coming to your suggested aircraft:

- EMB170 - nobody wants it, LOT is trying to get their own sold since more than a decade , due to poor economics, besides that, they are not part of the group fleet so would add complexity - remember SN is part of a group and it can choose from the pool the group is considering best to leverage its buying power
- A221 - can SN afford it? at current profits not, as these aircraft would be new; besides that even Swiss was reducing its order and switching to the - - A223 as sweet spot; the only true niche market for the A221 would be LCY, if BRU would have the traffic volumes for it

Since 2008 LH has almost all decision power at SN.
The decisions are all made in Germany.
The fact they tried to integrate the company in Eurowings showed CS's bad intentions.

Brussels is a political and business capital..
Catchment area is over 20 million.

Your comments and admiration for LH group and their "strategies" make me thinks about that old duke or viscount that sold out Tractebel, Electrabel, Bank BBL ,Fortis etc to foreign groups for peanuts.
Always he had a story that he had saved the companies.
Making SN a holiday airline is killing them.
LH even did not invest in the African connections. The new CS plan is fake.

Lot and TAP want to get out of Star alliance.
They do not want to sit on their knees for CS.

[rwandan-flyer]

LOT wanted more consideration but they never threatened to leave Star Alliance and it was...10 years ago. No update since (https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... kyo-231439).

Threating to leave an alliance happened in all alliances. Kenya Airways (https://www.google.com/search?q=kenya+a ... s-wiz-serp), Aeroflot ( in 2013: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/todayinth ... e/2479033/) and TAROM (https://www.google.com/search?q=tarom+l ... -serp#ip=1)had plan to leave SkyTeam.

Sometimes airlines in the same alliance you don't have a good synergie. Brussels Airlines has ended codeshare with Ethiopian and doesn't have codeshare with Turkish Airlines, why ? Strong competitors to Africa for SN ? Is it Castern fault ?


Some airlines decide to leave alliance. Aer Lingus left Oneworld, LATAM left Oneworld, China Southern left SkYteam.

About TAP you forgot mention that gov wants to sell its stake and depending the airline that will purchase stakes, TAP will leave Star or not like SAS will do.


The grass is (not) always greener on the other side.

I don't think that SN would have a better treatment with Oneworld (Africa was not in their target in 2000s and 2010s and BA has closed many routes to Africa) or in SkyTeam with Air France, KLM and Kenya Airways who have a good networks in Africa. That's probably why none of these alliances have talked with SN.

[oldblueeyes]

The first thing to evaluate correctly is to accept reality.

LH was a minority stakeholder in SN until full take over and in the last years of mandate Gustin has executed a strategy contrary to LH's intenstion ( as a consequence SN has today for example it's A319 sibfleet instead of the initially anticipated C-Series / today A223).

But let's come back to reality - in order to anticipate SN's moves, it is enough to read the regular reports of the LH Group and it's investor presentations and one can see afterwards the execution, sometimes earlier in other group brands.

Secondly, seen alone all brands would dream about becoming big via transfer pax.... but if you have as a group 4 or 5 brands you still have the same number of potential transfer pax- so you allocate them where it makes more economically sense.

So let's assume SN would like to get new aircraft - the decision making process is pretty clear and the brand CEO's in various countries communicate it regularly:

- the group has currently an annual investment value approx 2,5 bn - equals depreciation, the rest ist optimized via sale and lease backs
- aicraft purchases are done by the group in order to simplify fleets - brands can choose from group options
- if applying for new aircraft, brands compete - LH can spend 1 euro only once and it spends it where it gets the most return

And against my rationale descriptions of the reality the counter positions are purely emotional.

[JOVAN2]

Indeed, also SAS left Star alliance.

Furthermore, it looks like ITA also going for Skyteam.

[oldblueeyes]

Indeed, also SAS left Star alliance.

Furthermore, it looks like ITA also going for Skyteam.

Again you judge by emotions and missinterpretations:

- SAS is in Star and once AF/KLM would step in they intend to transfer it to Sky Team
- ITA is in SkyTeam , obvisously because of the Alitalia heritage, and once LH would acquire it the intention is to integrate it in Star Alliance and in the LH JV's - that's why the European comisson is looking after the JV's market share as well
- and Air Europa is in Sky Team and once BA would get it, it would leave the SkyTeam as well

Absolutely normal processes.

[lumumba]

I wonder why SN is not getting Embraer 170 or A220-100 present within the Group to serve thinner routes and to increase feeder service ?

Again, you have to see the big picture as the brand is not independent.

The strategy within the group is to simply operations and thus increase their efficiency - therefore SN aims to reduce complexity to two aircraft models operated on its own; A320 and A333.

If on niche routs money can be earned - it makes more sense to look for outsourced wetleases; the advantage is to reduce own complexity if a leased subfleet is fairly small and there will always be a direct economic case if this is worth or not.

Now, with respect to feeding - the role of the BRU hub is not to feed intra Europe - that's the role of MUC. And for extensive long haul FRA and ZRH are having their own share and offers and with 20+ long haul aircraft ITA would become it's share as well.

So the situation is likely as following, since SN is flying long haul to Africa, only:
- either you have a fair portion of transfer pax and then they would come from larger airports, than you would have a decent P2P demand as well
- from small airports, just to catch 3-4 pax for long haul, the premium of cost for the rest may not be mirrored by the prices you can achieve

VIE and BRU have both strong LCC competition next door and the money needs to be earned in P2P, primarly. Thus efficient narrowbody operations are crucial.

Last but not least, coming to your suggested aircraft:

- EMB170 - nobody wants it, LOT is trying to get their own sold since more than a decade , due to poor economics, besides that, they are not part of the group fleet so would add complexity - remember SN is part of a group and it can choose from the pool the group is considering best to leverage its buying power
- A221 - can SN afford it? at current profits not, as these aircraft would be new; besides that even Swiss was reducing its order and switching to the - - A223 as sweet spot; the only true niche market for the A221 would be LCY, if BRU would have the traffic volumes for it

Since 2008 LH has almost all decision power at SN.
The decisions are all made in Germany.
The fact they tried to integrate the company in Eurowings showed CS's bad intentions.

Brussels is a political and business capital..
Catchment area is over 20 million.

Your comments and admiration for LH group and their "strategies" make me thinks about that old duke or viscount that sold out Tractebel, Electrabel, Bank BBL ,Fortis etc to foreign groups for peanuts.
Always he had a story that he had saved the companies.
Making SN a holiday airline is killing them.
LH even did not invest in the African connections. The new CS plan is fake.

Lot and TAP want to get out of Star alliance.
They do not want to sit on their knees for CS.

I didn't now that TAP and LOT wanted to leave Star do you know if it will happen fast?

[lumumba]

LOT wanted more consideration but they never threatened to leave Star Alliance and it was...10 years ago. No update since (https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... kyo-231439).

Threating to leave an alliance happened in all alliances. Kenya Airways (https://www.google.com/search?q=kenya+a ... s-wiz-serp), Aeroflot ( in 2013: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/todayinth ... e/2479033/) and TAROM (https://www.google.com/search?q=tarom+l ... -serp#ip=1)had plan to leave SkyTeam.

Sometimes airlines in the same alliance you don't have a good synergie. Brussels Airlines has ended codeshare with Ethiopian and doesn't have codeshare with Turkish Airlines, why ? Strong competitors to Africa for SN ? Is it Castern fault ?


Some airlines decide to leave alliance. Aer Lingus left Oneworld, LATAM left Oneworld, China Southern left SkYteam.

About TAP you forgot mention that gov wants to sell its stake and depending the airline that will purchase stakes, TAP will leave Star or not like SAS will do.


The grass is (not) always greener on the other side.

I don't think that SN would have a better treatment with Oneworld (Africa was not in their target in 2000s and 2010s and BA has closed many routes to Africa) or in SkyTeam with Air France, KLM and Kenya Airways who have a good networks in Africa. That's probably why none of these alliances have talked with SN.

Thank you for this clarification, it already seems more subtle and more interesting to me.

[oldblueeyes]

You just have to look at the founding members of each alliance and you'll recognize the pattern - it is mainly a deal between the big boys offering each other large catchments compleentary to a their extended long haul networks.

If Tier 2 or 3 companies are not satisfied, there are other reasons behind:

- Turkish wants obviously to emerge as a Tier 1 player, driven by the state - so a code sharing within Europe makes no sense for them - nevertheless, the -joint venture with Sun Express together with Lufthansa works very well for leisure markets towards Turkey and the Balkans

- LOT has similar aspirations - pushed also by the ex nationalistic government in Poland - they would try to find a niche for themselves, as they had even plsn to become a market consolidator /Condor

- China Southern is obvious - China is having a sort of "approved" freedom to act and the big airlines are splitted among the alliances - Air China in Star, China Eastern in Sky Team so for them One World was the new allocation

- Tarom wanted to leave SkyTeam simply because they were not gaining economical benefit above their membership costs and the company is making losses for decades - the small connecting partners are not more than feeders for the big boys

- same would apply for Lingus, pre- acqusition- they had cost pressure from Rynaair and developed a leaner , more cost oriented offering below the classic legacy carrier standards - even today they are marketed by IAG as such

So - regardless of the alliance, SN would never be a big boy in anyone as it has nothing relevant to bring to the party.

The brand positioning within the LH is clear - a product below Allegris/Senses - even in the other alliances or as part of another group it would have not been the company having a first class on long haul flights.

Getting it's route to Africa as a part of the JV between LH . Air Canada and United is still the consequence of being a part of LH and not the result of coming up with something all are beging to participate.

[Conti764]

Again, you have to see the big picture as the brand is not independent.

The strategy within the group is to simply operations and thus increase their efficiency - therefore SN aims to reduce complexity to two aircraft models operated on its own; A320 and A333.

If on niche routs money can be earned - it makes more sense to look for outsourced wetleases; the advantage is to reduce own complexity if a leased subfleet is fairly small and there will always be a direct economic case if this is worth or not.

Now, with respect to feeding - the role of the BRU hub is not to feed intra Europe - that's the role of MUC. And for extensive long haul FRA and ZRH are having their own share and offers and with 20+ long haul aircraft ITA would become it's share as well.

So the situation is likely as following, since SN is flying long haul to Africa, only:
- either you have a fair portion of transfer pax and then they would come from larger airports, than you would have a decent P2P demand as well
- from small airports, just to catch 3-4 pax for long haul, the premium of cost for the rest may not be mirrored by the prices you can achieve

VIE and BRU have both strong LCC competition next door and the money needs to be earned in P2P, primarly. Thus efficient narrowbody operations are crucial.

Last but not least, coming to your suggested aircraft:

- EMB170 - nobody wants it, LOT is trying to get their own sold since more than a decade , due to poor economics, besides that, they are not part of the group fleet so would add complexity - remember SN is part of a group and it can choose from the pool the group is considering best to leverage its buying power
- A221 - can SN afford it? at current profits not, as these aircraft would be new; besides that even Swiss was reducing its order and switching to the - - A223 as sweet spot; the only true niche market for the A221 would be LCY, if BRU would have the traffic volumes for it

Since 2008 LH has almost all decision power at SN.
The decisions are all made in Germany.
The fact they tried to integrate the company in Eurowings showed CS's bad intentions.

Brussels is a political and business capital..
Catchment area is over 20 million.

Your comments and admiration for LH group and their "strategies" make me thinks about that old duke or viscount that sold out Tractebel, Electrabel, Bank BBL ,Fortis etc to foreign groups for peanuts.
Always he had a story that he had saved the companies.
Making SN a holiday airline is killing them.
LH even did not invest in the African connections. The new CS plan is fake.

Lot and TAP want to get out of Star alliance.
They do not want to sit on their knees for CS.

I didn't now that TAP and LOT wanted to leave Star do you know if it will happen fast?

TAP out of Star Alliance could be a good development for SN i.f.o. their African ops.