RTM wrote:
Also, the fire seems to be isolated to a small area, which means that the structural damage is probably confined to that area, and a temp fix for a ferry flight is probably an option.
I'm totally not convinced that it was isolated to a small area, the images we've seen on TV are suggesting that the area affected by externial damage is quite significant. It's not a simple patch of 10x10 it's quite a large area that suffered damage enough to at least damage the paint and weaken the cfrp structure.
The fact that Boeings cfrp fuselage parts are moulded instead of traditionally bolted (like the "old" aluminium parts or even the cfrp panels of the A350) is a significant problem. You simply cannot "patch" a moulded fuselage like you would do with traditional fuselage. The fact that cfrp loses it's strenght when heated over 250°C is also something that you have to be considering, the large area seen on the tv images is an area that was heated well over 250°C and thus even without being burned through (although it's still not confirmed that the hull wasn't burned through, they specified "damaged composite structure" besides blackening and peeling paint. Damaged composite structure can mean everything, it can mean that it was burned through but at -least- it means that there is structural damage following a fire.) it still means that the structural integrity was breached due firedamage. Now you have a plane with a hull that has firedamage in an critical area of the plane where it will undergo a lot of stress during take off, landing and flight itself. But even then it doesn't stop... The fuselage was filled with smoke when the firedepartment entered the plane, smoke got denser when they got to the point where the fire was happening. This alone means that there is to be expected a significant amount of smokedamage, even soot damage... At this point the plane was also nicely covered with foam, I don't know which brand the LHR fire department uses but this can also cause significant damage though the modern types of foam are less damaging then the old ones which where really corrosive. So another point to take into account and then they started to tear up the interior of the plane to extinguish the fire in the crown of the plane, ok this probably won't have caused any extra damage but the fact they started to fight the fire with water (and maybe even used foam inside too, but this wasn't specified) meand that everything was covered nicely with water, all the electronics in that part of the plane (and especially below the floor) will have received a nice shower of water...
When you add everything it's not just a simple patch it's a lot more then most expect... Honnestly, I wouldn't be surprised for even a second if they announce that the plane is a write off... I actually expect it to be a write off and this mostly "thanks" to the Boeing design of using moulded fuselage parts... If the plane could have been repaired in a "normal way", thus by replacing panels, stringers, etc... I would say yes, they will repair it to have it back in service, but now? Maybe Boeing really wants to keep the 0 hull loss figure this early in the game and maybe they'll buy it from Wells Fargo to have it shipped to PAE to repair it there and keep it in the fleet as a testplane but I doubt it will fly with ET again...
I truly hope I will be wrong since it would be hard to see a hull loss that soon after EIS...