Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

[brusselsairlinesfan]

OO-VEN was still flying today!

Indeed: BRU-BCN-BRU and BRU-CPH-BRU.

I still remember the first brand-new Sabena 737-200 that I flew from Le Bourget to Brussels in the early 1970s. It still had a fresh factory smell. The schedule was still showing a Caravelle.

So is the last brussels airlines Boeing 737 still flying?

What is the exact phase out date?

And what about the last RJ-85 (reg., retirement date)?

[skumfiduse]

In the past year it seemed the RJ100's would stay around for some more years. But now Gustin telling ATW that they are looking at options to replace the RJ100's as fast as possible and the 'rumours' they are looking at more A319/A320 + Q400 seems to indicate they want to get rid of these RJ100's faster than first tought?!

Well, that would mean the fleet simplification will be realised a lot quicker than expected.
With the Bae146's, RJ85's, 733's and 734's gone, and then the RJ100's as well. Leaving SN with wet-leased Q400's, A319's and A320's for short- to medium-haul. In my opinion much clearer than before, so fleet management should be more efficient.
Question remains if they will have aircraft with a capacity of 70 or 100 passengers in future (2-5 years)? E-jets, C-series, whatever. Efficient fleet management and flexibility is all well, but in the end you need to find a balance with the right aircraft for the right routes.

If this is their plan, sounds like a good move: A32S for short and medium-haul. They could bring in a few A321's for very dense routes. Q400's for short and thin routes. And yes please, get rid of those RJ100's. They're só 20th century.

[RoMax]

And yes please, get rid of those RJ100's. They're só 20th century.

They are expensive and not so new anymore, but many passengers like them (especially because they are 5-abreast in SN's configuration). The reactions of FF's on the Q400 replacing 'their' Avro on 'their' route are not always the best. Many of them don't like the less comfortable, slower,... Q400 on the longer routes (BRU-TLS for example).

[skumfiduse]

And yes please, get rid of those RJ100's. They're só 20th century.

They are expensive and not so new anymore, but many passengers like them (especially because they are 5-abreast in SN's configuration). The reactions of FF's on the Q400 replacing 'their' Avro on 'their' route are not always the best. Many of them don't like the less comfortable, slower,... Q400 on the longer routes (BRU-TLS for example).

New or old doesn't matter, the question is the operating cost, and let that be the one increasing, indeed. Is it easy to find spare parts? I guess they must become rare by the time, which increases costs even further.

True, SN has a comfortable 5-abreast configuration, whereas many others have/had 6-abreast. Talking about a cramped feeling...

I've never flown on a Q400 myself, but to me a 1,5hour flight sounds like a maximum in this plane. I've noticed airBaltic and Croatia Airlines send a Q400 to BRU from time to time. That's a 2hour-plus flight on a regional plane
On the other hand, operating cost comes before passenger comfort. I'm not sure how viable it is for SN to put a nice A32S for passenger comfort, flying half-empty...

[RoMax]

New or old doesn't matter, the question is the operating cost, and let that be the one increasing, indeed. Is it easy to find spare parts? I guess they must become rare by the time, which increases costs even further.

On the other hand, operating cost comes before passenger comfort. I'm not sure how viable it is for SN to put a nice A32S for passenger comfort, flying half-empty...

True, of course, that certainly wasn't my point. The operating cost indeed matters, but also take into account that certain routes see loads of luggage (AFI-transfers)...that often results in operational limitations for the Q400's. So of course it's not that they should keep their RJ's, it's the question if the Q400's are the right solution (the decision to stay with wetlease instead of going to dry lease says enough to me...).
But IF they want to replace their RJ100's faster than 'planned'/'expected' (and it's the question if that's indeed the case), they'll of course need extra Q400's to make better mix of A319, A320 and Q400. But again wetleases, so that indicates it's only an interim solution in my opinion.

I've never flown on a Q400 myself, but to me a 1,5hour flight sounds like a maximum in this plane. I've noticed airBaltic and Croatia Airlines send a Q400 to BRU from time to time. That's a 2hour-plus flight on a regional plane

I've once flown domestic (ZAG-ZAD) on a two week old Q400 of Croatia Airlines. Great airplane, really...but not for 1,5+ hours of flight time indeed. Tough in that period Croatia Airlines used an old F100 of Sunadria for the BRU-ZAG-BRU flights (bussy summer season)...I believe I would have liked the Q400 (or especially their A319 I had on ZAD-ZAG) more than that F100

[Flanker2]

In the past year it seemed the RJ100's would stay around for some more years. But now Gustin telling ATW that they are looking at options to replace the RJ100's as fast as possible and the 'rumours' they are looking at more A319/A320 + Q400 seems to indicate they want to get rid of these RJ100's faster than first tought?!

Finally some common sense is starting to sink in at SN.
The Q400's may not be as comfortable as the RJ100's, but the RJ's look old and tired too. Plus they are fuel hogs and cost twice as much to operate than the Q400's. So the question is: would you pay twice the money to fly the RJ100?

I hope that Gustin & co realise that the Q400 is the only option to rebuild the company from the bottom. As I always said, the Q400's would be perfect in a temporary role, to build the routes by increasing frequencies, then merge or upgrade Q400 flights into A32S flights and start making the money.

The customer wants to start the flight journey at the closest possible point from his home and arrive to the closest point to his destination, at the most convenient schedule possible.
Europe is full of untapped regional markets, but every legacy carrier is so focused on flying metropole to metropole at the lowest possible cost, that everyone is losing money, and no one is happy, including the customers, who are defecting to LCC's.

Once SN taps into the regional market, it will be almost 2020 and they will be able to chose from a new generation of aircraft such as the MRJ, to replace the Q400's.

The Q400 also allows to sustain longer thin routes, such as Warsaw, where the A319 is too big, the RJ100 the right size but impossible to make money with. Ok, it makes it harder to compete against LOT that operates B737's, but not if you play smart and offer frequencies and good fares. The game is not about competing to lose money together, but to compete and make a run for the money and beat the competitor. As more and more customers choose you thanks to your convenient schedules, you add frequencies and frequencies, until the competitor is flying empty B737's.

The versatility of the Q400 is also huge. In the winter, they can hop to Africa and give Korongo a capacity boost in the African high season.

[RoMax]

The Q400 also allows to sustain longer thin routes, such as Warsaw, where the A319 is too big, the RJ100 the right size but impossible to make money with. Ok, it makes it harder to compete against LOT that operates B737's, but not if you play smart and offer frequencies and good fares. The game is not about competing to lose money together, but to compete and make a run for the money and beat the competitor. As more and more customers choose you thanks to your convenient schedules, you add frequencies and frequencies, until the competitor is flying empty B737's.

Still passengers will have difficulties with a Q400 on such a relative long route...SN is supposed to be a full service carrier (they are not in Europe...but that's another story) after all. And I believe that's SN's problem. It's not that they don't believe in the Q400 (it proved to be working very well on certain UK, German and French routes), but pax don't like that aircraft on longer flights and once they use it on a route with a lot of transfer pax, they often face operational difficulties. They should need a faster aircraft with the same economics and the same capacity...unfortunately that's not available.

So yes they MAY try it as an interim solution, but I really don't know what pax will say when they start using the Q400's on the longer routes in Southern/Eastern/Northern Europe.
It's not such a big problem on routes without big competition, but I doub't they can beat for example SAS (OSL, BMA/ARN...tough it's the question if they should beat SAS or 'join' them in a codeshare...) or LOT (E19X/E175, only slightly more comfortable, but faster, also here...what happened with that codeshare...).

(btw, LOT is phasing out their 737's, so soon they'll only operate Embraers and 787's and Q400's, I believe, by EuroLot )

[Flanker2]

The luggage problem is due to the smaller overheas bins of the "A"-version. The Nextgen's don't have this problem as most trolleys fit up there, so that these don't need to be stowed in the cargo compartment.

The Q400 is not a perfect aircraft, far from it. But even if a perfect aircraft would exist, whether you make money depends solely on how you use it.

[skumfiduse]

New or old doesn't matter, the question is the operating cost, and let that be the one increasing, indeed. Is it easy to find spare parts? I guess they must become rare by the time, which increases costs even further.

On the other hand, operating cost comes before passenger comfort. I'm not sure how viable it is for SN to put a nice A32S for passenger comfort, flying half-empty...

True, of course, that certainly wasn't my point. The operating cost indeed matters, but also take into account that certain routes see loads of luggage (AFI-transfers)...that often results in operational limitations for the Q400's. So of course it's not that they should keep their RJ's, it's the question if the Q400's are the right solution (the decision to stay with wetlease instead of going to dry lease says enough to me...).
But IF they want to replace their RJ100's faster than 'planned'/'expected' (and it's the question if that's indeed the case), they'll of course need extra Q400's to make better mix of A319, A320 and Q400. But again wetleases, so that indicates it's only an interim solution in my opinion.

Sorry if I sounded rude about the "new or old"-thing. That was not my intention. I wanted to motivate my opinion that operating costs come before plane age and pax comfort. You're right about the Q400 and their cargo-hold. That also illustrates the complexity of choosing the right equipment on short haul routes. They should have like a combi-aircraft, enabling them to take out a number of seats and put cargo instead

I've never flown on a Q400 myself, but to me a 1,5hour flight sounds like a maximum in this plane. I've noticed airBaltic and Croatia Airlines send a Q400 to BRU from time to time. That's a 2hour-plus flight on a regional plane

I've once flown domestic (ZAG-ZAD) on a two week old Q400 of Croatia Airlines. Great airplane, really...but not for 1,5+ hours of flight time indeed. Tough in that period Croatia Airlines used an old F100 of Sunadria for the BRU-ZAG-BRU flights (bussy summer season)...I believe I would have liked the Q400 (or especially their A319 I had on ZAD-ZAG) more than that F100

Oh yeah, I would have preferred a Q400 over a F100, absolutely! How about a CRJ?

[tolipanebas]

About the quote of Gustin: it's not about the next step, it's about what they are doing now: sort of a round up on the present plan so to say.

The Q400 venture is not going to be expanded on, as it has demonstrated itself as an extremely inflexible niche plane. Just look at the operational mess on TLS for instance where they need to supplement/substitute the planned Q400 service with RJs just to get the pax' luggage to BRU and thus have to position RJs and their crews in and out the whole time. Or the millions in lost revenues on the UK, because of limitations on the type of cargo transported. Or how the Q400 almost killed BSL as the ex-SWISS passengers voted with their feet and flew out of ZRH instead: all those 'ideal cases' came back to RJ quickly, didn't they? Other than a limited number of thin routes, there's nothing in the present network that can make good use of this plane, as real world route trials have shown. Not because it is a bad plane, but because it is unfit for the type of customers SN has.

Oh, and Q400s at Korongo? ROTFL... Clearly never been there. ROFL.
Turboprop means Antonov in the RDC and people avoid them by all means: if people want to go to the market, they go on foot, not by a crashing plane.

[Pocahontas]

I wonder if the RJ100's will be replaced at all...

[convair]

Coming back to Gustin's stating that SN wants to replace the 12 RJ100 asap, there are, I believe several aspects to consider:

1. Contract with the lessor: if SN wants to return the planes before the end of the contractual leasing period, it is always possible to negotiate with the lessor an earlier termination. It might cost some money though.

2. Finding replacement planes: I don't know what is the current situation re the leasing of A319/A320; we have seen quite a few airlines go bankrupt recently and return their fleet to lessors.

3. Number: Looking back about 2 years ago at the start of this topic, it looks like the 14 RJ85 and 8-9 737 have been replaced by about 8 A319 + 5 A320 + 5 Q400 on wet lease. So, unless I am missing too many things, there definitely was a fleet reduction, even though the number of seats may have increased (I did not make a count). I don't think SN can really further reduce its fleet without damage to its business, so let's assume, for the sake of discussion, they will need 3 A319 + 3 A320+ 3 A321 for the busiest routes + maybe 3 additional wet-leased Q400.

4. Last but most important, cockpit and cabin crews: SN just made an agreement with its personnel and I don't know how easily and how fast the crews can be converted to the A319/A320 fleet. also the impact of possibly wet-leasing additional Q400s nedd to be carefully looked at.

My conclusion: If SN can solve the crews issue, if they can start returning RJ100 without too big a penalty, they should start the replacement asap, as knowledgeable contributors on this forum have repeatedly stated that it would save them a lot of money in operation and maintenance.

The easiest way could be to start with a few wet-leased Q400s, the use of which would give SN a clearer indication of when and where to go progressively for the A319/320/321 family.

I'm eager to read your comments, specially from professionnals, and more particularly to learn where I am completely wrong.

[JOVAN]

The customer wants to start the flight journey at the closest possible point from his home and arrive to the closest point to his destination, at the most convenient schedule possible.
Europe is full of untapped regional markets, but every legacy carrier is so focused on flying metropole to metropole at the lowest possible cost, that everyone is losing money, and no one is happy, including the customers, who are defecting to LCC's.

FULLY agree. This is clearly demonstrated by KLM, which has e.g. 7 destinations, with multiple flights per day in Norway. Same in UK where there is a huge potential of continental travellers; many flights to many 'secondary' destinations. Secondary destinations with huge potential.

SN apparently does everything tofly with low pax load.

Only way to fill planes (and make money ?) is regular, convenient connections. Intra-Europe and EU-Intercontinental.

I am also pessimistic about SN's future.

[Airbus A330]

According to Flightradar, OO-DWI flew for the last time on 13 December (BRU-BHX-BRU). Is it now in maintenance?

[Yuri166]

It's getting a new lick of paint...

[Airbus A330]

It's getting a new lick of paint...

Thank you!

[OO-ITR]

It's getting a new lick of paint...

Could it be that it is an Star Alliance livery?
I'm in the terminal now and can see a *A tail but can't see if it's an Avro...

[RoMax]

Could it be that it is an Star Alliance livery?
I'm in the terminal now and can see a *A tail but can't see if it's an Avro...

Don't forget it can also be an LX aircraft (if it's an Avro).

[CTBke]

it's unlikely that SN will paint another aircraft into a *A livery . ..

[OO-ITR]

Could it be that it is an Star Alliance livery?
I'm in the terminal now and can see a *A tail but can't see if it's an Avro...

Don't forget it can also be an LX aircraft (if it's an Avro).

yes made the same reflection afterwards...