African operations possible with narrow body equipment

[cathay belgium]

NCB,

As answer :

The new start-up is not Air Senegal but Senegal Airlines. Different owners with totally different plans and full government support. No RAM involvement at all, maybe some oil tycoon looking at investing his value-losing dollars into something profitable.

new start-up = investing in something profitable ( Okay, the sixth sense ? )
Senegal = isn't that an African country ? How they become so rich nowadays that they can afford ( full government support ) to buy so many new planes in Dubai ? and set up a profitable airline from zero?
( Why Senegal and not Botswana for ex. they're rich (some of them for sure !! )
( Sabena = no poor country,full government support,new planes (just no Concorde!),but... )

Just for info : How can they obtain the nice slots they need ? from zero !

Competition is always unpredictable but I don't fear your fears in this economical climate.
And.. if economy rises so does the kerosine and that'll be paid with every airline!
(Also a full back-up, having planes doesn't involve a immediate running airline business !)

Add the higher lease cost and you'd be better off operating to Kangerlussuaq.

Maybe this is a good plan for an A319, they have money,oil,no direct flights to Europe, low pax with less bagage (their airfields are modern,low altitude and cold ( I presume )
Sorry, for laughing with this! Couldn't help it!
But I know where it is (YES before you posted this !!! = Greenland,Danmark ).

but I learned how to operate to indigenous places like FIH

Check LH destinations besides Congo they sure have enough know-how already!!

Altough I must confess that I could somewhere understand your fear of SN to be 'Swiss-ed' by LH.
Altough I don't expect it , it's just one possibilty that COULD happen. (low chance but...)
Belgium made that mistake not so long ago..

They're going to reroute the A333's to Asia or U.S. and then say that they tried hard but that there is no longer a market for longhaul out of BRU.

*A codeshares
Okay BOS then and Narita?

F in Europe is an excellent idea especially in a recovering climate with potentially hiking oil prices.

recovering climate ? where ?? Do you now where we are now and where we gonna be in the next years??
now= under the bottle
Next years = little water maybe (if lucky half-full(+ ))
Do you really think that business gonna boom so much that companies prefer intra-EU flying in F instead C?
after all that cash-injections,job losses,..
I hope with you but I don't think so..

Even now, the few businesses that can still afford to pay for J seats will prefer to use SN's first class than other airlines J service. If the price is right, say only 5-30% higher than J, it will work. The upgrade would be a nice plus for the business accounts who will consider twice before sending their employees into Y, a tendency that SN can not stop any better than LH or AF.

WHY ?? Please explain !
If you don't care about paying J why would I prefer J of SN instead of the company I used to fly with.
30 % less of xxx
Or the prices matters=Y or not C/J intra-european? AFI ?
And miles you earn in an Alliance or not? ( supposing, don't have miles )

Be under no illusion, it would not be a good idea to send such A319's to for instance Palermo, as they will only be able to sell the F seats at low yields. But there's enough places to keep them busy.

Believe, I'm half Sicilian you're 100/100 right!
But what else? London,GVA,CDG,??
Can you expect profit in J with so less flying time!
Economics must boom with a nuclair explosion I think.

For our not so aviated friends, F is first, J and C is business, Y is economy.

What's this for? This is https://www.aviation24.be !!

But I'm no specialist.. I just want to analyse what you want to sell us!

CX-B

[flightlover]

NCB,

As answer :

The new start-up is not Air Senegal but Senegal Airlines. Different owners with totally different plans and full government support. No RAM involvement at all, maybe some oil tycoon looking at investing his value-losing dollars into something profitable.

new start-up = investing in something profitable ( Okay, the sixth sense ? )
Senegal = isn't that an African country ? How they become so rich nowadays that they can afford ( full government support ) to buy so many new planes in Dubai ? and set up a profitable airline from zero?
( Why Senegal and not Botswana for ex. they're rich (some of them for sure !! )
( Sabena = no poor country,full government support,new planes (just no Concorde!),but... )

Just for info : How can they obtain the nice slots they need ? from zero !

Well it seems to me you forget about the slots the old airline had and maybe are still owned by the Senegal government. It's not because you don't have planes of your own you can't have the slots. So if the investor brings in the planes and the gov brings in the slots, you have a working airline with start-up hick-ups but workable from day one since the old pilots and crew are maybe still looking for a job?

Just my thoughts on this subject. But hey don't you have to do some homework before a start-up can take off? I bet they are doing it right now

[cathay belgium]

Hi,

Well it seems to me you forget about the slots the old airline had and maybe are still owned by the Senegal government. It's not because you don't have planes of your own you can't have the slots.

Well, off-course but then this should already be known!
Can anybody confirm that Senegal has slots to compete SN on BRU?
Or were the slots been taken by RAM ?
I know AiR Senegal has some in the past. ( I remember their publicity and logo at the check-in hall of BRU! )
If an airline corrupts the slots could also be sold.. aren't they?

CX-B

[NCB]

The slots, you mean the bilateral.
It's a good point but there are several factors to consider.
The State is supporting the new start-up with a minority participation and alot of bureaucratic support. Which means that the airline can negotiate slots at will. If there are not enough slots for DKR-BRU for instance, the government will renegotiate the bi-lateral with Belgium and force Belgium to accept or cancel the previous bi-lateral and make SN lose their route.
This is a non-issue for the start-up.

Now I have been thinking about that catering division based in a central position and the critics who said that it would cost too much money because of the turboprops that have to deliver it.
Actually I have found a second way to put it at advantage. The same operation can be used to set-up a local technical division to store parts and have some of the better mechanics on stand-by. The same turboprops can be used to carry mechanics and parts to local aircraft requiring technical assistance.
The cost of the operation is acceptable since a Saab 340 or similar can carry catering load for 4 full A319 flights at one time while burning very little fuel (500kg/h at 0.44EUR/kg this week's IATA average fuel price). It is standard practise at many airlines to have their own business jet to fly parts and mechanics to U/S aircraft on outstations.

[AFApresident]

Air Senegal had actually pretty decent service (if you compare with Air Mauritania or Air Ivoire :S, on the latter I was so glad I was on the ground again).

Best african airline I have flown so far is Air Mali, good crew, good catering and on time!

Anyway the new Air Senegal is not going to get 10 or 20 aircraft. They had 4 aircraft (3 B737 and 1 Dash8Q3), so at most they just get the same number of planes again.

Air Senegal was codesharing to BRU with Brussels Airlines.

My conclusion is you are all wrong. NCB is way too optimistic in his A32X plans and in what the new Air Senegal will get as a fleet and the others way to pessimistc that it is in all scenarios a bad plan or that SN should only get A330 size of aircraft for Africa, or that indeed sitting idle for SN till they find a cheap A330 is a good idea.

A32X service from BRU to Bamako etc perfectly possible, (catering, operational no issues at all (if TAP can do it with full meal service in both directions than SN can do it too (i.e. somewhere you will find space)). But indeed you won't get to the gold coast. So A32X investment could make sense for 2-3 extra destinations in western africa (Bamako, NKC, Ouagadougou etc), but it won't work non stop to Togo, Benin, Nigeria which are simply too far.

In other words get 1 A333 for far flung destinations like Cotonou/Libreville and and get 1 A32X series for a BRU - NKC - BMK - BRU sector and BRU - Ouagadougou - Niamey - BRU sector. The A32X can be swapped around with the TEl Aviv and Moscow destinations who need goodbiz class products if only one african combo sector wants to be started at a time. In the othe scenario you do utilse your aircraft 6-7 times a week by doing above 2 flightlines 3/4 times a week each.


Above is more aggressive than what most of your propose and will give SN more power again in Africa + above perfectly realistic in an african environment, yet it is not so megalomeniac as NBC's plans which are indeed simply too optimistic and unrealistic.

[NCB]

A32X service from BRU to Bamako etc perfectly possible, (catering, operational no issues at all (if TAP can do it with full meal service in both directions than SN can do it too (i.e. somewhere you will find space)). But indeed you won't get to the gold coast. So A32X investment could make sense for 2-3 extra destinations in western africa (Bamako, NKC, Ouagadougou etc), but it won't work non stop to Togo, Benin, Nigeria which are simply too far.

In other words get 1 A333 for far flung destinations like Cotonou/Libreville and and get 1 A32X series for a BRU - NKC - BMK - BRU sector and BRU - Ouagadougou - Niamey - BRU sector. The A32X can be swapped around with the TEl Aviv and Moscow destinations who need goodbiz class products if only one african combo sector wants to be started at a time. In the othe scenario you do utilse your aircraft 6-7 times a week by doing above 2 flightlines 3/4 times a week each.

I believe that you are omitting the fact that A319 has 23% more range than A320/A321.

I believe that that is why I don't follow your reasoning.
BRU-BKO great circle distance: 4402km
BRU-OUA great circle distance: 4310km

These distances work perfectly but Cotonou (COO) and Lomé (LFW) are too far?
BRU-COO great circle distance: 4942km
BRU-LFW great circle distance: 4968km

The distance difference between BRU-BKO and BRU-COO is 540km is 40 minutes of flying or 1.6 tons more fuel and at worst 1.6 tons less payload.

Either way, a 75.5ton MTOW A319 has 6800km with 134 passengers and reserves.
In the configuration I propose of 108 pax, you got 2.6 tons less payload, thus you can theoretically carry 1 more hour of fuel increasing the range with reserves to 7600km.

If you fly with 108 pax, you can fly higher, have less induced drag and burn less fuel.
With a full fuel tank and 100% load factor you can get 8 hours of flying without auxiliary fuel tanks that restrict cargo volume and MZFW.
BRU-COO is 6 hours great circle, operationally around 6.5 hours.
=>1.5 hours of reserve and contingency is way more than needed.

I think that it would be a good idea to start with BRU-BKO, BRU-NIM, BRU-OUA and to see how much margin is left. I would operate each route separately, no need to triangulate and waist money/time.

[RoMax]

NCB, Do you now why SN is flying triangle routes? Because of the bad quallity of most of SN's AFI destinations. They don't like the quallity of the kerosine on some of their destinations you now, so they fly these bad quallity airports together with airports that have better kerosine and better service. AF hasn't this problem (not in the way SN has this problem) because most of their AFI destinations has better services. SN is flying as only EU airliner on a lot of their AFI destinations and these airports are really bad. So if they want to fly non- triangle routes it need to be to an airport with good service, good kerosine... But the problem is than , what to do with the bad quallity airports that can have a lot of potential? Indeed triangle routes.
Maybe it can be possible for some AFI destinations to fly with a A319 but SN is now flying triangle routes with their A333's and they are doing fine in this way.

[NCB]

As long as it's kerosine and it has a decent energy density you're good to go. Kerosine is a very abundant and easily distillated fuel, any smaller refinery can produce it in necessary quantity and decent quality.

I think that more than the kero quality, SN is doing triangular flights for 2 reasons: they can't fill the big A333 on single destinations hub to spoke, except maybe for FIH, and they want to serve as many cities as possible with as little planes as possible in order to acquire a market presence.

Afriqiyah is also doing some triangular and one-stop flying to build the demand, and shifting those routes that have become large enough into hub to spoke operation, non-stop.

[134flyer]

My conclusion is you are all wrong. NCB is way too optimistic in his A32X plans and in what the new Air Senegal will get as a fleet and the others way to pessimistc that it is in all scenarios a bad plan or that SN should only get A330 size of aircraft for Africa, or that indeed sitting idle for SN till they find a cheap A330 is a good idea.

A32X service from BRU to Bamako etc perfectly possible, (catering, operational no issues at all (if TAP can do it with full meal service in both directions than SN can do it too (i.e. somewhere you will find space)). But indeed you won't get to the gold coast. So A32X investment could make sense for 2-3 extra destinations in western africa (Bamako, NKC, Ouagadougou etc), but it won't work non stop to Togo, Benin, Nigeria which are simply too far.

In other words get 1 A333 for far flung destinations like Cotonou/Libreville and and get 1 A32X series for a BRU - NKC - BMK - BRU sector and BRU - Ouagadougou - Niamey - BRU sector. The A32X can be swapped around with the TEl Aviv and Moscow destinations who need goodbiz class products if only one african combo sector wants to be started at a time. In the othe scenario you do utilse your aircraft 6-7 times a week by doing above 2 flightlines 3/4 times a week each.

Above is more aggressive than what most of your propose and will give SN more power again in Africa + above perfectly realistic in an african environment, yet it is not so megalomeniac as NBC's plans which are indeed simply too optimistic and unrealistic.

AFApresident, I partly agree. Although 1 A32X series for a BRU - NKC - BMK - BRU sector and BRU - Ouagadougou - Niamey - BRU sector could be doable (in theory), I still see some operational constraints, also regarding cargo & luggage. By the way e.g. LIS is closer by then BRU. Competition is AF and e.g. regarding luggage, AF has a piece concept to Africa, so 2x 23kg, even in economy, so how do you want to compete e.g. with that with an A319? And then we haven't even mentioned cargo... One way or another, something has to be restricted; luggage, cargo, range: you can't have it all. Also, I did already mention that an airline like AF can operate some A319 flights to Africa, as they have a big AFI operation to support it in several ways. SN has until now a much smaller AFI operation, so IMHO they first have to expand their A330 operation (what they apparently plan by getting a 5th A330, and who says they can’t find one?), before they can hypothetically add a seperate operation of one or two 319’s to some dedicated destinations, but I still have my doubts about it. An operation with up to 15 A319's is however Megalomane!!

NCB, Do you now why SN is flying triangle routes? Because of the bad quallity of most of SN's AFI destinations. They don't like the quallity of the kerosine on some of their destinations you now, so they fly these bad quallity airports together with airports that have better kerosine and better service. AF hasn't this problem (not in the way SN has this problem) because most of their AFI destinations has better services. SN is flying as only EU airliner on a lot of their AFI destinations and these airports are really bad. So if they want to fly non- triangle routes it need to be to an airport with good service, good kerosine... But the problem is than , what to do with the bad quallity airports that can have a lot of potential? Indeed triangle routes.
Maybe it can be possible for some AFI destinations to fly with a A319 but SN is now flying triangle routes with their A333's and they are doing fine in this way.

MR_Boeing, I mentioned this as well, but NCB is a slow (or actually non) learner:

-‘Cargo to AFI is very important for us’. AFI Cargo 2008: 20000 ton, which if I calculate very roughly is about 7-8 ton on each and every flight to and from Africa!
-Cargo is the ‘icing on the cake, and the icing is getting bigger and bigger’, ‘the A330 gives us a lot of potential cargo wise’
-'We fly to AFI in trianguals as e.g. at one airport there is no catering, at another there is no high quality kerosene etc.'

Again he is only replying with theoratical stuff, which he found e.g. on Great Circle Mapper, and ignoring all arguments & facts which prove him wrong. Just going in circles and modifying his totally unrealistic ideas, which are very hard to accomplish in reality (WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AFRICA, we didn't only critizise it because of the costs!):

Now I have been thinking about that catering division based in a central position and the critics who said that it would cost too much money because of the turboprops that have to deliver it.
Actually I have found a second way to put it at advantage. The same operation can be used to set-up a local technical division to store parts and have some of the better mechanics on stand-by. The same turboprops can be used to carry mechanics and parts to local aircraft requiring technical assistance.
The cost of the operation is acceptable since a Saab 340 or similar can carry catering load for 4 full A319 flights at one time while burning very little fuel (500kg/h at 0.44EUR/kg this week's IATA average fuel price).

I now have given up all hope...

[LX-LGX]

For our not so aviated friends, F is first, J and C is business, Y is economy.

Thanks for advising us. But let’s not forget that you are the non-aviated here. And actually, we in aviation and travel prefer to talk about First, Business, Economy (and not first, business, economy). Another proof that you are not familiar with aviation.

Even now, the few businesses that can still afford to pay for J seats will prefer to use SN's first class than other airlines J service. If the price is right, say only 5-30% higher than J, it will work.

5 to 30 % more expensive? You really really don’t know what you’re talking about. Even with your 30% more, you can’t pay the extra costs from C to F like additional check-in counter, more expensive lounge, more expensive catering (including the take away bottle of champagne), complimentary parcel, …

You're planning 12 First, compared to 20 Business, so you need to sell at least 66% more expensive (20:12) to get the same gross revenue.

This statement “5 to 30 % more expensive” is another proof that you don’t work in aviation, but get all your information from Google, wiki, airbus.com, boeing.com, iata.org, … And to be honest: you are damned good in. But once confronted with field guys or practical remarks, you fail.

F in Europe is an excellent idea especially in a recovering climate with potentially hiking oil prices…

Hiking oil prices? ARA Jet fuel for Oct 09 was 195.83, compared to 236.58 for Oct 2008 and 395.15 for May 2008. And airlines pay far less now because of the weakening Dollar.

… Now put yourself in LH's position in 2011 ...I can operate Africa all by myself now, I no longer need SN's help. Nah, I'm going to dump my 65 million stake, … but I learned how to operate to indigenous places like FIH.

Lufthansa has more knowledge of Africa then you think. They didn't needed SN for it. And even if they weren’t: you’ve managed to learn all about aviation into AFI through internet in just two weeks. So why would LH need two years on the field to learn it?

No, actually, the only things LH doesn’t have, are passengers and a local African image, built upon mouth-to-mouth publicity there. And SN has it. Africans don’t have constant internet access, but thet have bush telephone. Have you ever travelled through a street in SN-destinations and seen their presence?

Except for Windhoek and crossroads like Keetmanshoop and Lüderitz, you won’t find German speaking Africans. Hence the weak LH-potential. But there are lots of French speaking Africans (in Africa and in France and Belgium). Lufthansa wants to beat AF/KLM; by joining (not fighting!) SN, they can do so on the African market.

[134flyer]

Lufthansa has more knowledge of Africa then you think.

LX-LGX, I'm afraid you see it all wrong: LH also don't know what they are doing; they fly several routes in triangals/tag-on's to AFI as well. Don't they know how inefficient it is to fly those short intra-african sectors with widebodies?


I almost forgot:

I speculate that Senegal Airlines will order around 20 A320 or B737 aircraft at the Dubai Airshow.
Worse, who knows maybe there could be an Afriqiyah order too. Sunday and especially Monday will be interesting to follow, I'll keep you posted.

Thanks for keeping us informed, we are totally in the dark here...

[Airbus330lover]

As long as it's kerosine ......

From now you're a kerosine specialist !

[NCB]

From now you're a kerozine specialist !

Well at least I'm spelling it right.

[cathay belgium]

Pleaze don'dt make remarkz aboudt spelling correctnesz,
thiz is an aviaztione foerum not a language vorum !!
If you want to make other memberz ridiculous arguw with argrumentz instead
of eazy waie spellings !!
Same easy wayz as FJC/karjurlisaki /... ( these were at least a bit f )
CX-B

[134flyer]

From now you're a kerozine specialist !

Well at least I'm spelling it right.

WOW, a reaction! Totally ignoring the fact that you are uttering total crap again, this time about kerosine... But before you start nitpicking (I could find dozens of spelling mistakes by you, but this is not the point in this forum), start with quoting posters here with their full handle, as is normal custom, and not like tulip, 134, AFA, vinnie etc. Should be easy for you, as you are very good in copy-paste... It will also show a little respect to the other posters; as respect is something so important for you to get...

[LX-LGX]

Pleaze don'dt make remarkz aboudt spelling correctnesz,
thiz is an aviaztione foerum not a language vorum !!
If you want to make other memberz ridiculous arguw with argrumentz instead
of eazy waie spellings !!
Same easy wayz as FJC/karjurlisaki /... ( these were at least a bit f )
CX-B

The answer to the question in this topic has already been given by the professionals - although some find it hard to accept it. Probably because they don't understand it.

Therefore, going off topic is allowed,

and because this topic is becoming the most hilarious one on luchtzak.be,
and because spelling seems to be more important then content,
and because most people at Lufthansa speak German,
and because Brussels Airlines is now Lufthansa,

I permit myself to post an internal memo from the European Commission about the language policy within the European Union. It can be seen as aviation-related, as Eurocontrol will have to adapt to it. So please regard this as confidential:

EU memo ref.: 2410/ovv

The European Commission announces an agreement whereby English will be the official language of the European Union rather than German, which was the other possibility. As part of the negotiations, the British Government conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has accepted a 5- year phase-in plan that would become known as "Euro-English".

In the first year, "s" will replace the soft "c". Sertainly, this will make the sivil servants jump with joy. The hard "c" will be dropped in favour of "k". This should klear up konfusion, and keyboards kan have one less letter. There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year when the troublesome "ph" will be replaced with "f". This will make words like fotograf 20% shorter.

In the 3rd year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be expekted to reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible.

Governments will enkourage the removal of double letters which have always ben a deterent to akurate speling.

Also, al wil agre that the horibl mes of the silent "e" in the languag is disgrasful and it should go away.

By the 4th yer people wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing "th" with "z" and "w" with "v".

During ze fifz yer, ze unesesary "o" kan be dropd from vords kontaining "ou" and after ziz fifz yer, ve vil hav a reil sensi bl riten styl.

Zer vil be no mor trubl or difikultis and evrivun vil find it ezi tu understand ech oza. Ze drem of a united urop vil finali kum tru.

Und efter ze fifz yer, ve vil al be speking German like zey vunted in ze forst plas.

[134flyer]

Therefore, going off topic is allowed,

I permit myself to post an internal memo from the European Commission about the language policy within the European Union. It can be seen as aviation-related, as Eurocontrol will have to adapt to it. So please regard this as confidential:

EU memo ref.: 2410/ovv

[...]

Und efter ze fifz yer, ve vil al be speking German like zey vunted in ze forst plas.

ROTFL

Back to topic (...):

As long as it's kerosine and it has a decent energy density you're good to go. Kerosine is a very abundant and easily distillated fuel, any smaller refinery can produce it in necessary quantity and decent quality.

It is surprising that NCB hasn't included the following in his plan: small refineries built & operated by SN themselves at these places! Well, maybe I shouldn't have said this, as he for sure is now modifying his plan...

[cathay belgium]

LX-LGX you made my day!!
Thanks,..
And be sure this topic gonna be in the charts of luchtzak for many years to come...

It is surprising that NCB hasn't included the following in his plan: small refineries built & operated by SN themselves at these places! Well, maybe I shouldn't have said this, as he for sure is now modifying his plan...

I was thinking the same..
NCB is starting a whole new economy in AFI, oil-cargo-catering-technical operations-...,
in a few years they can start thinking about the next wave of colonisation by the Belgians!
( and all that risks for just an A319 ! )

Cx-B

[LX-LGX]

As long as it's kerosine and it has a decent energy density you're good to go. Kerosine is a very abundant and easily distillated fuel, any smaller refinery can produce it in necessary quantity and decent quality.

Typical reply for someone who is brand new in aviation, yet has to explore it all but thinks he knows it all.

Shall we ask Simon how many crashes in Africa have been caused by bad fuel?

[regi]

To NCB:
there are now 5 bio fuel installations in Flanders which work at a very low rate or are even closed down because the subsidies from the government stay away and the price of crude oil has fallen down after 2008.
So, that fuel problem is solved as well. SNBA buys the fuel plants, brings back palm oil from Africa in the cargo hold and makes its own fuel .
And if they fly to Spain or Greece, they can bring back olives. Great to make bio diesel .

"SNBA, smooth as Olive "