747-8 Progress

[RC20]

Interesitng as I did not know Sprite was doing hte nose for hte -8.

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/fligh ... pirit.html

Some thoughts on the status, noting that there was a major shift in pax vs freighter sales from original projecions

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... oeing.html

The 747-8I may be in what looks like a logical slot to fill (i.e more or less 450 seat Pax) between the A380 and the 777-300

Looking at sales, that does not seem to be true. While Lufthansa wants it, there have been no other airlines sales (the rest are pure single owner luxury liner sales which does make some sense).

What looks to be happening is that the A380 has the capacity in the large size to accommodate the luxury passengers (and their space gobbling environmentally xxxxx seats) and enough business and third class passengers to keep the whole thing profitable (the Titanic was a luxury liner with a whole lot of desperately poor below deck passengers). Keep in mind the A380 has been sold at an unprecedented discount, so the base cost is the same or even better than a normally discounted 747-8 would be.

The 747-8I does not have the size or economics to be able to do that. Give the luxury pax the space they have on the A380, and they cannot carry enough other passengers to pay the operating costs (letting the luxury pax act at a very good profit center). To make it pay, you have to scale down the luxury offering space wise, and then that puts you in direct competition with someone else who offers more space.

Shift to the 777-300, that can do the same thing, except it’s a lot more economical to operate with two engines and can close to offering the same seat mix. So, if you do not go with the A380, the 777 is the other option.

The 747-8I may get more orders if it fits into a particular route structure, or there is enough of multiple routes within a bigger airline (Lufthansa apparently). Some higher density runs may work for it if there is not enough need for what an A380 can carry, and or purchase slots are not available. Slot availability might garner some sales if someone needs it fairly fast.

In either case, it doesn’t look like either one is going to sell real numbers in that category (though those buying the A380 are happy to have the 747-8I as a way to threaten Airbus and keep the price of the A380 down).

On the other hand, the 747-8F will probably sell better than they hoped for. There simply is no alternative or competition in that segment. FedEx would seem the be the only remote possibility for freighter sales, UPS has invested in the 747-400s, and likely to just move up to the 8F if they have the need for larger single flight haul needs.

[smokejumper]

Just-in-time manufacturing and lengthy water transit times has given air freight a real boost over the past decade. The current economic global down-turn will dampen the need for all transportation for a couple of years, but it will come back and prosper.

The 747-8 Freighter is the only large (front-loading, outsize) commercial freighter available. I beleive that the market will ultimately be fairly large, even with competion from converted, ex-passenger 747-400's.

[achace]

Interestingly, I did an excercise a while ago regarding airfreighting a large generator to Manila.

The big surprise was how limited the nose ramp of the 747 is as far as height is concerned.

Although we could get the generator on board, it was through the side dooor, which is considerably higher than the nose entrance.

Sorry I have not got the numbers here, but they can be found on the Boeing website.

The moral of this is that nose loading is probably ok for fast loading, but it has its limitations for large loads.

[Jester]

The 747-8 Freighter is the only large (front-loading, outsize) commercial freighter available. I beleive that the market will ultimately be fairly large, even with competion from converted, ex-passenger 747-400's.

The only one??? Give the AN124 an AN225 some credit!!!
The are available for ad-hoc charters as well.

[flightlover]

To be correct the max nose-load cap of an 747F is 240cm height with a few cm to spare. The max load cap thrue side door is 300cm height with a few cm to spare. But with width limitations for the top span as the plane has a oval hull.

This still makes it possible to load some quite impresive cargo

[flightlover]

The 747-8 Freighter is the only large (front-loading, outsize) commercial freighter available. I beleive that the market will ultimately be fairly large, even with competion from converted, ex-passenger 747-400's.

The only one??? Give the AN124 an AN225 some credit!!!
The are available for ad-hoc charters as well.

And don't forget the so called "beluga" from airbus. It to has a nice load capacity in terms of size although not so much in terms of weight. And only loads thrue nose-load on the main deck I think (not shure of this though). And don't realy know if they are available for charters

[smokejumper]

The 747-8 Freighter is the only large (front-loading, outsize) commercial freighter available. I beleive that the market will ultimately be fairly large, even with competion from converted, ex-passenger 747-400's.

The only one??? Give the AN124 an AN225 some credit!!!
The are available for ad-hoc charters as well.

And don't forget the so called "beluga" from airbus. It to has a nice load capacity in terms of size although not so much in terms of weight. And only loads thrue nose-load on the main deck I think (not shure of this though). And don't realy know if they are available for charters

Are these aircraft currently in production and available for order?

[an-148]

antonov decided to restart production of an-124: it will be called an-124.150
main improvements:
- improved load possibility: 150to
- improved engines: more power and less fuel burn
- improved cockpit to be operated by a 2 men crew instead of 4
-- many other details........

with current loan possibilities of the banks, I don't know if they will be able to rise the fundings for the study.

[earthman]

To be correct the max nose-load cap of an 747F is 240cm height with a few cm to spare. The max load cap thrue side door is 300cm height with a few cm to spare. But with width limitations for the top span as the plane has a oval hull.

This still makes it possible to load some quite impresive cargo

So I suppose the nose door is more useful for ridiculously long items, otherwise you can squeeze larger things trough the side door than through the front.

[flightlover]

So I suppose the nose door is more useful for ridiculously long items, otherwise you can squeeze larger things trough the side door than through the front.

That's correct

[smokejumper]

antonov decided to restart production of an-124: it will be called an-124.150
main improvements:
- improved load possibility: 150to
- improved engines: more power and less fuel burn
- improved cockpit to be operated by a 2 men crew instead of 4
-- many other details........

with current loan possibilities of the banks, I don't know if they will be able to rise the fundings for the study.

If an aircraft is not available for order, it's not available.

[achace]

The ultimate issue for the nose loading is whether or not it is value for money, when perhaps 80% plus of all cargo will fit in the side door, and apart from very long loads, is much more versatile.

This makes -400 conversions a serious threat to the 748F, which incidentally has not had too many orders in the past 12 months?

Cheers

[flightlover]

The ultimate issue for the nose loading is whether or not it is value for money, when perhaps 80% plus of all cargo will fit in the side door, and apart from very long loads, is much more versatile.

This makes -400 conversions a serious threat to the 748F, which incidentally has not had too many orders in the past 12 months?

Cheers

For a full ofload sia for example always uses the nose door. It saves a bit of time, but or this time gain weighs up to the cost of having one, that I don't now.

The best reason to have one is the versatility of freight they can take.

[Jester]

[quote="flightlover And don't forget the so called "beluga" from airbus. It to has a nice load capacity in terms of size although not so much in terms of weight. And only loads thrue nose-load on the main deck I think (not shure of this though). And don't realy know if they are available for charters

Are these aircraft currently in production and available for order?[/quote]

I did not mention the Beluga nor Boeing's Dreamlifter because they are not available for third parties to charter. In a magazine it was mentioned that The Antonov Design Bureau wants to slice up an AN124 and make it higher to match the gap in the market

[smokejumper]

Here's another vote for 747F (hinged nose) and a converted 747BCF - "Boeing to deliver 3 more converted 747 freighters to Air China Cargo". see: http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/art ... 58627e.htm

[RC20]

The -8 has now been delayed for 9 months (someone at one point commented that they thought this would happen, kudos to them for calling it right).

It looks like most of the delay is the cascade affect from the 787 progrm flops. That being the outsourced portion (all new airframe and the systems themselves seem to have done pretty well). The conseaue3nce go somethign liek this
If you outsource something this technical, you need oversight
Oversight is in all disciplines from engineering to logistics which means many bodies from each area
If your outsources are scattered all over the globe, you need many oversight teams
You get your oversight teams from other programs as you already have maxed out the resources you have.

There have been more issues with badly installed fasteners on the 787 (all have to be fixed) The 737 had mounting plates that did not have the right coating on them (goes back to 2007). That means a re-do over time (not structural, as they are wire bundle mounting plates), all will have to be replaced eventually. Probably a result of loss of oversight as the 787 sucked those resources up.

777 also delayed a couple of months, though that looks to be directly attribute to the strike , but the engineers are not happy either (asking for strike authorization so.......)

[achace]

This delay when combined with the promised correction of the A380 overweight issue by 2012 and a better fuel burn may be the death knell for the 748I unfortunately.
Even on todays figures LH, the only airline customer, concedes a 10% seat mile cost advantage to the 380, so things are looking bleak, particularly has one has to assume specifications can be met by Boeing to even reach the above situation, and right now the base airplane is overweight.

Possibly another subject, but if Boeing shares fall much further, and the 787 and 737 issues drag on, their cash position is going to take a serious hit. Lets hope they dont end up asking for hand outs.