5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

[b.lufthansa]

You have to put things in perspective: b.air is considering a 5th aircraft, this will not mean that they will have a 5th aircraft! No special news to bring, so why not release some news about a possible new aircraft. Looks good towards Lufthansa (how future aimed the management is) and to keep b.air own staff happy (new career opportunities blabla).

[NCB]

but if you really think our A330-300s can make it non-stop back from JNB to BRU fully loaded like you've implied, you're simply said: nuts!

Even from nearer-by NBO we're sometimes payload restricted and this is not from graphs I found on the net or from a glossy Airbus flyer, but from real world operational experience!

Korean Air flies Seoul-Zurich with A333.
That is the same great circle distance as BRU-JNB.

I can see why SN could be payload restricted out of NBO, but it doesn't mean anything at all, certainly not what you'd wish it to mean.

I am going to prove it to you:

A330 specs data from airbus.com
MZFW 173 tons
OEW 122 tons
MZFW-OEW = Max Payload = 51 tons

MTOW 230 tons
Usable load = MTOW - OEW = 108 tons

Usable - Max payload = Max fuel at max payload = 57 tons

This means that for a max. payload of 51 tons, the A333 can only carry up to 57 tons.

Fuel burn A330-300: 7-7.5 tons/h
Ground Speed: 870km/h
Fuel/distance ratio 8.6kg/km

For 6552km BRU-NBO, counting an additional 1000km for route/redundancy and reserves, we calculate fuel required to fly 7552km: 64947kg or around 65 tons. (Even considering a low fuel burn of 7 tons per hour, it would play out at 60 tons.)
Basically that means that no matter what you do, NBO is going to be payload restricted to below the Max. payload of 51 tons, to be more precise, max. payload would be 43 tons.

But that doesn't mean much at all, certainly not that you can't fly with full passengers!
43 tons for 265 passengers means that there is still quite alot of room for cargo revenue... about 15 tons
(I had mentionned about the same load for BRU-FIH which is about the same distance, note it was sucked out of the thumb but not far off at all).

If you are not looking at any cargo revenue, you can fly 265 pax at 100% load factor BRU-JNB on sscheduled ops, the way I suggested.

Bring in more convincing stuff.

[sdbelgium]

You should also think about the HHH-specifics of JNB, compared to ZRH. JNB is hot, high and humid, which limits the operations of double-engined aircraft. Even 747s have difficulties climbing out of JNB in Summer, cf. British Airways that had the stick shaker activated after engine failure on climbout.

This, combined with the fact that SN's A333 are early-built birds and therefore can carry less IIRC, are some of the reasons SN cannot operate into JNB with a full payload.

[NCB]

Hot and high is a factor. I think that SN's old airframe isn't a big factor, engine performance would be a more significant factor.

Nevertheless, I believe that unless flights are leaving at noon during the South African summer, there shouldn't be any empty seats due to performance at JNB's 4400 meter runway. Again 100% load factor is a totally different concept than full payload, by more than 20 tons...

SAA announced a few days ago an order for A330's, a conversion of their previous A340 'dispute' order.
AF will be sending its A380's to JNB for the world cup, and I suspect LH will do the same.

[Vinnie-Winnie]

@ NCB

I think you are totally overestimating the market size in Belgium and underestimating the importance of Cargo for destinations that are difficult to reach by other means of transport.

You also seem to disregard operational contraints that make it very difficult to fly any type of aircraft to a particular destination.

Let me remind you that we are talking about transport here. IE a business that make peopel travel from A to B and often via C when A to B is too expensive/unavailable.

Equating a new potential destinations with theoretical range + supposedly highly inelastic demand is just not gonna work!

Also check any flight to a particular destination 7 months in advance and you'll get pretty horrendous prices as no-one really ever books flights so long in advance. If you do decide to book that far in advance u problably dead set on going. Airlines know that and that is why they hike up prices.

About beijing: Rarely have olympic games been succesful in terms of travellers. People are just not prepared to spend that sort of money with a few exceptions!

Let me remind you the basics of aviation: Large home demand willing to spend bucket loads of people willing or able to spend large sums of money topped up by cheapo travellers willing to make a sacrifice (inconvenience of connecting through airport c) to get to their destinations cheaply! BRU hasn't got enough of them.

Your solution using A319 would either/or/and

- Introduce 1 or 2 extra stop somewhere for sure
- decrease comfort (narrow body + lack of amenities if u decided that weight is an issue
- Introduce extra weight (think about meals IFE boxes, lie flat beds...)
-...

Think SN has thought things through a lot! A 5th A330 is probably for the best!

[EBBR_Based]

Bring in more convincing stuff.

YAAAAAAWN :eh:

Would it just be possible to put a shoe in your mouth!? How much more arguments do you need?

Take it from people who actually do know: NO, it is NOT POSSIBLE, just like an A319 to Kinshasa, Johannesburg or anywhere else you suggested is not possible. Full stop.

[NCB]

I think that you have an interpretation problem or simply you are lazy and did not read.
No one talked of A319 FIH or JNB scheduled ops, only you.
If I imitate you I would say this:
"scheduled A319 to JNB... are you nuts?
Do you even have intellectual capacity?
You don't have any idea".

No one forces you to read the thread and to react to it.

I hope that SN doesn't share your lack of future vision, lazyness and willpower, I don't want to see Sabena Part II in a few more years.

[jan_olieslagers]

NCB,
Just walk into headquarters and tell them you are the new manager. You obviously have the qualifications, the relations, the experience, the insights that will make Brussels Airlines the shining star. Everybody is waiting for you to ACT! YOU are the one they've been missing so much! Why spend your precious time on this shitty forum of non-believers?


















And now back to reality, please.

[Conti764]

I hope that SN doesn't share your lack of future vision, lazyness and willpower, I don't want to see Sabena Part II in a few more years.

I'm pretty confident we won't... SN is doing very well with it's A330's on triangular routes in Africa. This system has to be kept and expanded with A330's (the smaller -200 probably) flying direct to cities which can sustain such operation. A smaller variant (A320-family) could be used to North-African destinations, but not to, let's say 'subsaharian' (is that a word? ) destinations.

SN has to be very cautious opening new destinations or expanding current destinations and do it step by step. I have read many viable arguments on this forum of people who know more about this stuff then I do and I learned a lot from it.

[euroflyer]

Interesting discussion to read here, but I am afraid it is all quite far away from reality ... Maybe we should focus a bit more on what could actually really be done - not only from a technical point of view, but also from a economical point of view For example I doubt very much LH is interested in SN flying to South Africa at all in the short term. LH has a number of flights to SA itself already, connections from BRU (and many other EU airports) are easy, so why open another route to Sout Africa? I think it is much more likely they would like to see SN to start operations to other places in Africa, which are not yet covered by LH or LX already. But that is just my no-nonsense approach maybe

[airbuske]

The new destination would be Accra, Lomé , Benin , Cotonou or Ouagadougou.
B. Airlines will make a decision in december.

[NCB]

I think that sending an A333 to JNB is alot more interesting than BOS, JFK or YUL, which have been discussed extensively here and on airliners.net

The issue with SN adding a A333 to Africa is: where to?
It has to be somewhere that makes alot of money with the least risk or it has to have Star Alliance traffic potential. Other routes are not without risk, integration takes quite some time as we have seen with the 4th A333. Of course JNB is not the only option around here but smaller cities = considerable risk.

Actually I think that this 5th A333 itself is a daydream. SN is losing money, if they couldn't afford to expand when they were making money, what are they trying to achieve now at the worst of everything?
I tend to think that this is the most plausible thing they are trying to achieve:

You have to put things in perspective: b.air is considering a 5th aircraft, this will not mean that they will have a 5th aircraft! No special news to bring, so why not release some news about a possible new aircraft. Looks good towards Lufthansa (how future aimed the management is) and to keep b.air own staff happy (new career opportunities blabla).

Olieslagers, I' mgoing to respond promptly to your post.
SN don't need me, it has some people with alot of potential inside the company. They are just not taken seriously as people who claim to have half a century of experience, notably some ex-Sabena's, behave like they hold the keys of the company.

Their behaviour is similar to the one that was expressed on page 5 of this forum. "You are nuts, it can't be done, you don't know anything, in theory it works but in practice bullcr*p, etc..."

A good example of this behaviour is people who don't make a difference between elementary full payload and 100% load factor (I caught 2 of you who don't know what payload restriction is, but hey we all learn the hard way, we can't know everything) trying to teach me lessons.
That's the kind of behaviour those talented guys within SN with future vision are encountering every single day.
The conservatives also make themselves interesting in front of higher management in order to win their consideration and there are one or two of them in every single department I have come to understand.

I'm against this kind of behaviour even when posting on anonymous forums, tend to avoid writing cheap stuff like "you don't know anything".
Intellectual people don't share idea's in this manner, intellectual people learn to back their claims with proof.

I suggest you do that too.

[JOVAN]

Good points and analysis NCB.

Indeed, as long as the old experienced Sabéniens are running the shop, things will not move.

We can only hope for a quick LH takeover and some German business-oriented and no-nonsense managers in this ex-Sabena.

Load factors are 10 to 15 % below any competition. That says everything for me.

And investing in African destinations is acceptable as long as AF-KL leaves some oxygen. They can close the door and the oxygen tomorrow if they want.

Stevie and the other old boys, you did your job (maybe not so well, but alas..)
Now pls go and let some fresh ideas and management in.

[Conti764]

I think that sending an A333 to JNB is alot more interesting than BOS, JFK or YUL, which have been discussed extensively here and on airliners.net

I believe the general consensus on this forum is for SN not to deploy their own equipment transatlantic too soon... Some N-A destinations can become true, but only in the future and not to everywhere.

The issue with SN adding a A333 to Africa is: where to?
It has to be somewhere that makes alot of money with the least risk or it has to have Star Alliance traffic potential. Other routes are not without risk, integration takes quite some time as we have seen with the 4th A333. Of course JNB is not the only option around here but smaller cities = considerable risk.

Africa is one of the last markerts in aviation with a good margin and alot of potential to operate to. The point of an alliance is to harmonise operations between all members and have a global network as streamlined as possible. Therefore the focus of SN shouldn't be at serving markets which are already covered from and to Europe, but those markets which feed enough passengers through their Brussels hub, thus destinations not yet or only marginally explored by European airlines. JNB, CPT,... are already very well covered from Europe. Unless the local BRU market is so big it can sustain an own, seperate operation, SN should keep their hands of from such destinations.

[tolipanebas]

NCB

May I point out to you our A330's are early models and as such do not have the range capacities as the ones you are constantly qouting after heaving found them on the airbus site? What you quote as range is for new builts only under ideal conditions

[Conti764]

Indeed, as long as the old experienced Sabéniens are running the shop, things will not move.

Actually, the current developments at SN are far from the old Sabena strategy. Sabena wanted to fly to anywhere whereas SN is very prudent and careful about opening new destinations.

And investing in African destinations is acceptable as long as AF-KL leaves some oxygen. They can close the door and the oxygen tomorrow if they want.

What are you saying? That AF-KL is keeping the door open for SN and Star Alliance? If they could have killed SN operations to Africa, they would have done so a long time ago. AF desperately tried to lure away clients from Brussels when Sabena went bankrupt, but after a few months, SN restarted operations to Africa and kept making money on them. Even Hewa Bora offering flights to FIH half of the rates SN used, couldn't compete with SN. We have seen enough proof SN has to keep focussing on their main money making market: Africa.

[teddybAIR]

Even Hewa Bora offering flights to FIH half of the rates SN used, couldn't compeed with SN.

Compeed? As in Compeed?

Back on topic:

I don't remember where I read this, but I recall reading that starting up a service to a new long haul destination requires multiple million budgets. Thus, I'm guessing that the people taking these decisions at Brussels Airlines are far better informed by means of market studies than we can possibly be. Let's trust them a little, no? After all, IMHO Brussels Airlines is not doing so bad, given it's heritage and all the constraints that come with it.

Regards,
Tom

[RoMax]

Brussels Airlines said that they are looking at 4-5 long haul destinations outside Africa. But these destinations ( and we don't now wich destinations) are for over a few years. Now it is to expensive for SN to lease a lot extra planes to operate outside AFI. In 2011 when SN is for the 100% in hands of LH than these destinations will come. Not before 2011, I am pritty sure about that.
But what I read here about A319 operating further than North-Africa, come on be serious "NCB". Do you want to fly in a A319 for around 7-10 hours. SN and for sure LH will never do something like that.
About the A333's, don't think they will make JNB. Even the newest A333 would have serious dificulties with that. And I doubt if the market is there for BRU-JNB like already said before by others. Maybe over 5 years or something but that is long away.
But we can be almost sure for 100% that SN will lease a fifth A330 (if they found one), now they have the money and they wanne use it so they can make the new destinations profitable. If they wait to long, the money will burn away if they don't expand in AFI. And this expanding need to be happend with A330's maybe A343's and to places with a huge potential. So not flying with A319 further than Nort-AFI and not to JNB, for sure not with a A333.

[BrightCedars]

I really think SN will get the 5th A330 for African service only. Southern Africa is out of the question, there is too much competition, you require several planes to offer a decent competitive service, and there are a series of alliance and non alliance nonstops all around. Hasn't SN already put its code on LH's JNB flights? That's good enough if you ask me. Maybe later they can coordinate a smooth connection e.g. via ZRH with LX or SA.

For the Atlantic, it seems things are laid in such a way that Canada will be covered by AC hardware. As for the rest we can expect CO, UA and US to provide the lift. This leaves the question of BOS opened as this might be an interesting destination for SN, or not.

I think they should concentrate on covering a lot of North Africa that they don't cover today. Not Morocco which is a tourist magnet and has all sorts of competition, but places like ALG and TIP. Egypt will come in partnership with MS. The Levant is also a candidate for good yields. The A319 and eventually a slightly larger A320 are ideal candidates. Forget the A321 or special config narrow bodies, SN isn't in that niche.

[NCB]

May I point out to you our A330's are early models and as such do not have the range capacities as the ones you are constantly qouting after heaving found them on the airbus site? What you quote as range is for new builts only under ideal conditions

That is a valid remark that I have somehow underestimated.
After some research I found the following information:

For A330-300s with serial numbers below 113, the highest possible MTOW is 215 tons, while serial numbers 113 through to 254 can be upgraded to 217 tons. A330-300s with serial numbers higher than 254, can be upgraded to 230 or even 233 tons at cost, but without any additional structural changes.

On a hot day, it would be hard to come out of JNB at full load factor for a 215 ton MTOW A333.
Basically, if SN want JNB, they must look for MSN 254 (1999-model) or later.

Early A319's also have lower MTOW's.

The new destination would be Accra, Lomé , Benin , Cotonou or Ouagadougou.

Ouagadougou and Accra could be a nice triangle, but it would take time to establish a customer base there.
It certainly wouldn't be profitable until 2011.


Jovan was mentionning Air France, but there are some running start-up projects and already runnning projects like Afriqiyah that could take the entire market away from SN, AF and the others within 3 or 4 years.
Africa's high yields could be no more by 2014, what will SN do then with a handful of old A330's?

A drastic expansion plan needs to be layed over the table.

But we can be almost sure for 100% that SN will lease a fifth A330 (if they found one), now they have the money and they wanne use it so they can make the new destinations profitable.

I think that a large part of the capital injection through LH's acquisition is going to cover this year and the coming winter's losses. There won't be much left to pay for the addition of an additional A333 even if they were to find one. I hope that SN prove me wrong.