Global air passenger demand fell 2.2% year-on-year in May 2026 as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to weigh heavily on airline traffic, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Excluding the Middle East, however, global demand still increased by 0.7%.
The decline was driven primarily by Middle Eastern airlines, which reported a 28.4% drop in passenger traffic compared with May 2025. Although severe, the decline represented an improvement from April’s 46.6% contraction, suggesting a gradual recovery in the region.
Despite weaker traffic, airlines maintained a record-high global load factor for the month of May at 83.5%, as capacity was reduced by 2.3% year-on-year.
Europe and Latin America delivered the strongest regional growth, with passenger demand increasing 2.7% and 6.1%, respectively. Africa also recorded solid growth (+6.6%), while North America (-0.8%) and Asia-Pacific (-1.4%) experienced modest declines, largely reflecting weaker domestic markets in the United States and China.
International traffic declined 1.6% overall, but would have grown 3.1% without the Middle East. European carriers saw international demand rise 3.8%, helped by a continued shift towards direct flights between Europe and Asia, while Latin American airlines posted the strongest international growth at 10.5%.
Domestic passenger traffic fell 3.1%, with China recording the sharpest decline (-6.2%), possibly linked to higher airfares and calendar effects surrounding the Dragon Boat Festival. The United States also saw domestic demand weaken, while India remained the fastest-growing major domestic market with a 10.1% increase.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the industry’s overall performance remained resilient despite the impact of the Middle East conflict, elevated fuel costs and high airfares. He cautioned, however, that airlines operating on slim profit margins are likely to keep testing passenger demand through higher ticket prices until lower oil prices translate into reduced jet fuel costs.