The International Air Transport Association warns that global jet fuel supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict will take months—not weeks—to normalise, even after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Refining capacity damage—not just crude supply—is the key bottleneck
- Fuel shortages and elevated prices are expected to persist
- Airlines will inevitably pass higher fuel costs onto passengers
- Temporary traffic shifts away from Gulf hubs are not sustainable long-term
Director General Willie Walsh emphasised that the industry underestimated how concentrated refining capacity is in the region, prolonging recovery timelines.
Bottom line: Even with oil flows resuming, the aviation sector faces a prolonged period of higher operating costs and rising airfares.