IATA: January 2026 traffic up 3.8% as load factors hit record high

Global air passenger demand rose 3.8% year-on-year in January 2026, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), while capacity increased 3.5%, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The global load factor reached a record 82.0% for the month, up 0.2 percentage points compared to January 2025.

International Markets Drive Growth

International traffic climbed 5.9% year-on-year, with capacity up 5.8%. The international load factor hit a January record of 82.5% (+0.1 ppt). All regions recorded growth, though expansion slowed in Asia-Pacific due to the Lunar New Year shifting from January in 2025 to February in 2026.

Regional international performance:

• Latin America: +11.4% demand; 86.5% load factor (+2.0 ppt)

• Africa: +11.7% demand; 77.4% load factor (+1.1 ppt)

• Middle East: +7.2% demand; 83.2% load factor (-0.4 ppt)

• Europe: +6.3% demand; 79.4% load factor (+0.5 ppt)

• North America: +3.4% demand; 82.3% load factor (+0.6 ppt)

• Asia-Pacific: +4.4% demand; 85.9% load factor (-0.7 ppt)

Latin America and Africa were the strongest growth markets, while Asia-Pacific’s performance was dampened by the calendar shift.

Domestic Markets Flat

Domestic traffic edged up just 0.1% year-on-year, with capacity down 0.4%. The domestic load factor rose to a record 81.2% (+0.4 ppt).

Performance was mixed across key markets:

• Brazil: +10.9% demand (strongest performer)

• India: +3.4%

• Japan: +0.7%

• Australia: -1.6%

• United States: -0.7%

• China: -3.8%

China, the US and Australia posted declines, largely reflecting Lunar New Year timing effects.

Outlook: Strong Capacity Growth, Rising Uncertainty

IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted that scheduled seat capacity is expected to rise 5.2% by March 2026—the fastest expansion since April 2024—indicating continued underlying demand strength.

However, he cautioned that geopolitical tensions could affect traffic flows and fuel costs. Walsh also warned that rising infrastructure charges, regulatory burdens and energy transition costs are pressuring airlines, with 2025 recording the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999.

Despite cost pressures, average fares are expected to decline in real terms through 2026, continuing the long-term trend toward more affordable air travel.