The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air freight markets showing that demand, measured in freight tonne-kilometres (FTKs), decreased by 1.1% in November 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. This marks the thirteenth consecutive month of year-on-year declines in freight volumes.
Despite the decline in demand, November’s performance was the best in eight months, with the slowest year-on-year rate of contraction recorded since March 2019. In part, November’s outcome reflects the growing importance of large e-commerce events such as Singles Day and Black Friday.
While international e-commerce continues to grow, overall air cargo demand continued to face headwinds from the effects of the trade war between the US and China, the deterioration in world trade, and a broad-based slowing in global economic growth.
Freight capacity, measured in available freight tonne-kilometres (AFTKs), rose by 2.9% year-on-year in November 2019. Capacity growth has now outstripped demand growth for the 19th consecutive month.
“Air cargo recovered slightly in November, with demand down 1.1% – a significant improvement over the 3.5% decrease in October. However, the fourth quarter is a peak season for air cargo. So, a decline in growth is still a disappointment. Looking forward, signs of a thawing in US-China trade tensions are good news but there is still a long way to go if cargo is to achieve 2.0% growth forecast in 2020,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
Regional Performance
Airlines in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East suffered sharp declines in year-on-year growth in total air freight volumes in November 2019, while North American carriers experienced a more moderate decline. Europe and Africa were the only regions to record growth in air freight demand compared to November last year.
| November 2019 (% YEAR-ON-YEAR) | WORLD SHARE1 | ftk | AFTK | FLF (%-PT)?2 | FLF (LEVEL)?3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market | 100.0% | -1.1% | 2.9% | -2.0% | 49.6 |
Africa | 1.6% | 19.8% | 13.7% | 2.1% | 40.4% |
Asia Pacific | 35.4% | -3.7% | 1.8% | -3.1% | 53.8% |
Europe | 23.3% | 2.6% | 4.0% | -0.8% | 56.9% |
Latin America | 2.7% | -3.4% | -2.3% | -0.5% | 40.3% |
Middle East | 13.2% | -3.0% | 2.6% | -2.9% | 49.7% |
North America | 23.8% | -1.1% | 3.3% | -1.8% | 41.3% |
1- % of industry FTKs in 2018 2- Year-on-year change in load factor 3-Load factor level
Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand for air freight contract by 3.7% in November 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. This was the sharpest drop in freight demand of any region for the month. Capacity increased by 1.8%. The US-China trade war has significantly affected the region, with demand on the large Asia – North America market down 6.5% year-on-year in October (latest available data). However, the thawing of US-China trade relations and robust economic growth in key regional economies are positive developments.
North American airlines saw demand decrease by 1.1% in November 2019, compared to the same period a year earlier. Capacity increased by 3.3%. Slower growth in the US economy and trade tensions with China have affected demand. However, positive progress in trade negotiations between both countries highlighted by the ‘phase one’ deal is a positive development.
European airlines posted a 2.6% increase in freight demand in November 2019 compared to the same period a year earlier. Better than expected economic activity in Q3 in some of the region’s large economies helped support demand. Capacity increased by 4.0% year-on-year.
Middle Eastern airlines’ freight volumes decreased 3.0% in November 2019 compared to the year-ago period – a significant improvement over the 5.7% decrease in October. Capacity increased by 2.6%. Against a backdrop of operational and geopolitical challenges facing some of the region’s key airlines, seasonally-adjusted freight volumes in the region have continued a modest upward trend which is a positive development for the region’s carriers. However, escalated geopolitical tensions threaten the regions’ carriers in the period ahead.
Latin American airlines experienced a decrease in freight demand in November 2019 of 3.4% compared to the same period last year. Various social and economic headwinds in the region’s key economies have impacted the region’s air cargo performance. Capacity decreased by 2.3% year-on-year.
African carriers posted the fastest growth of any region in November 2019, with an increase in demand of 19.8% compared to the same period a year earlier. Strong trade and investment links with Asia contributed to the positive performance. Capacity grew 13.7% year-on-year.
Read the full Freight Analysis for November (pdf)
Press Release No 75, Geneva – 8 January 2020
This post was published on 8 January 2020 23:52
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