IATA: Air cargo demand up 5.6% in January 2026 as regional divide emerges

Global air cargo demand began 2026 on solid footing, with total cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK) rising 5.6% year-on-year in January, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). International operations outperformed the headline figure, expanding 7.2%.

Capacity growth remained more moderate. Available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK) increased 3.6% globally (+5.7% internationally), pushing the global cargo load factor (CLF) up 0.9 percentage points to 45.1%.

Regional Performance: Strong in Africa and Middle East, Weak in the Americas

Growth trends were markedly uneven across regions:

• Africa: +18.2% demand (strongest globally); capacity +6.5%; CLF 43.5%

• Middle East: +9.3%; capacity +9.9%; CLF 40.6%

• Asia-Pacific: +7.8%; capacity +3.3%; CLF 45.3%

• Europe: +6.9%; capacity +4.9%; CLF 54.1% (highest load factor)

• Latin America & Caribbean: ?2.0%; capacity +2.3%; CLF 32.0% (lowest load factor)

• North America: ?0.5%; capacity ?0.2%; CLF 43.3%

Asia-Pacific maintained its position as the primary growth engine, accounting for 35.9% of global CTKs. In contrast, carriers in both North America and Latin America reported demand contractions, making the Americas the clear laggards.

Operating Environment: Supportive but Uncertain

Several macro factors supported January’s performance:

• Global goods trade grew 4.9% year-on-year (December 2025).

• Jet fuel prices declined 6.5% year-on-year.

• The global PMI rose to 51.8, signalling manufacturing expansion; however, new export orders (49.9) remained marginally below growth territory.

Despite this positive backdrop, IATA Director General Willie Walsh cautioned that geopolitical instability in the Middle East and ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy could pressure supply chains in the months ahead. These issues are expected to feature prominently at IATA’s World Cargo Symposium in Lima (10–12 March 2026).

Trade Lane Trends: Asia–North America the Sole Weak Spot

Air freight volumes expanded across most major corridors, with one key exception:

• Africa–Asia: +41.6% (7 consecutive months of growth)

• Europe–Asia: +15.2% (35 consecutive months of growth)

• Within Asia: +14.3% (27 consecutive months)

• Middle East–Asia: +12.9% (11 consecutive months)

• Europe–Middle East: +10.2%

• Europe–North America: +3.8% (24 consecutive months)

• Within Europe: +1.0%

• Asia–North America: ?0.6% (only major declining lane; 23.4% of global CTKs)

Strategic Outlook

The 5.6% global expansion reflects continued structural resilience in air cargo, supported by recovering trade and improving industrial sentiment. However, the widening regional divergence—particularly weakness in the Americas—signals that 2026 performance will likely hinge on geopolitical developments, trade policy clarity, and carriers’ ability to enhance operational efficiency and digital integration.