IATA: Air cargo demand surges in October 2024, marking 15 consecutive months of growth

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported a 9.8% year-on-year increase in global air cargo demand for October 2024, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs). This marks the 15th consecutive month of growth, driven by robust e-commerce activity, inventory stockpiling, and improved global manufacturing output.

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), also grew by 5.9%, buoyed by increased international belly and freighter capacity.

Key Highlights

• Global Growth Drivers:
  • Demand for international air cargo rose by 10.3%, outpacing overall growth.
  • Industrial production and global trade grew by 1.6% and 2.4%, respectively, reflecting strong economic activity.
  • Global air cargo yields (including surcharges) rose 10.6% year-on-year and are up 49% from 2019.
• Geopolitical Uncertainty:
  • The incoming Trump Administration’s proposed tariffs on major trading partners could disrupt global supply chains and dampen future growth.

Regional Performance (October 2024)

• Asia-Pacific:
  • Demand surged 13.4%, with capacity up 9.3%. The region benefits from thriving e-commerce and intra-Asia trade.
• Latin America:
  • Recorded the strongest growth at 18.5%, driven by regional trade expansion. Capacity increased 5.8%.
• North America:
  • Demand rose 9.5%, supported by robust consumer demand and constrained ocean shipping. Capacity grew by 5.8%.
• Europe:
  • Demand increased 7.6%, with capacity up 3.9%, supported by steady transcontinental trade.
• Middle East:
  • Experienced modest growth at 4.5%, with limited capacity increases of 0.8%.
• Africa:
  • Demand grew only 1.6%, the slowest among regions, despite a 7.7% capacity increase.

Trade Lane Highlights

• Exceptional growth on international routes (+10.3%):
  • Europe-Asia: +14.3% (20 consecutive months of growth).
  • Middle East-Europe: +15.3% (15 consecutive months of growth).
  • Within Asia: +15% (12 consecutive months of growth).
  • Africa-Asia: +13.3% (14 consecutive months of growth).

Challenges and Outlook

• Global Trade Weakness: While the global manufacturing PMI indicates growth, the PMI for new export orders remains below 50, signalling uncertainty.
• Inflation Trends: Rising inflation rates in the US (+2.58%) and EU (+2.33%) may pressure consumer spending, while China’s low inflation (+0.29%) reflects slowing economic activity.

Despite challenges, air cargo demand continues to outperform, making 2024 a banner year for the sector. However, geopolitical and economic risks could test the industry’s resilience in 2025.