IATA: global air travel demand to more than double by 2050

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects global air passenger demand to more than double by 2050, according to its latest long-term projections. Under the central scenario, demand will reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), up from 9 trillion in 2024, representing an average annual growth of 3.1%.

In a high-growth scenario, demand could rise to 21.9 trillion RPKs, while a lower scenario still sees 19.5 trillion by mid-century.

Growth will be led by emerging markets, with Asia-Pacific and Africa expected to expand fastest at 3.8% and 3.6% annually. By contrast, Europe and North America are forecast to grow more slowly.

IATA also highlights a structural shift following the COVID-19 crisis, with global demand not expected to return to its pre-pandemic trend, despite continued long-term growth. At the same time, expansion is gradually slowing compared to previous decades, reflecting a maturing market.

According to IATA Director General Willie Walsh, the outlook remains positive, but requires continued investment in infrastructure, regulatory alignment and the transition to cleaner energy.