The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects global air passenger demand to more than double by 2050, according to its latest long-term projections. Under the central scenario, demand will reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), up from 9 trillion in 2024, representing an average annual growth of 3.1%.
In a high-growth scenario, demand could rise to 21.9 trillion RPKs, while a lower scenario still sees 19.5 trillion by mid-century.
Growth will be led by emerging markets, with Asia-Pacific and Africa expected to expand fastest at 3.8% and 3.6% annually. By contrast, Europe and North America are forecast to grow more slowly.
IATA also highlights a structural shift following the COVID-19 crisis, with global demand not expected to return to its pre-pandemic trend, despite continued long-term growth. At the same time, expansion is gradually slowing compared to previous decades, reflecting a maturing market.
According to IATA Director General Willie Walsh, the outlook remains positive, but requires continued investment in infrastructure, regulatory alignment and the transition to cleaner energy.