ACI Europe: Passenger traffic up 4.6% in January as Middle East conflict clouds outlook

Passenger traffic across Europe’s airport network rose +4.6% year-on-year in January 2026, according to ACI Europe, signalling continued demand resilience at the start of the year.

However, the industry’s outlook has been thrown into uncertainty following the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, a region that plays a pivotal role in European connectivity.

Non-EU Markets Outperform

Airports in the non-EU+ market delivered the strongest performance, with traffic up +8.8%, significantly ahead of the EU+ market, where volumes grew by +3.6%.

Growth remained structurally driven by international demand:

• International passengers: +5.5%
• Domestic passengers: +1.8%
• Domestic traffic still sits -8.1% below 2019 levels

ACI Europe Director General Olivier Jankovec warned that while January data typically points to positive prospects, the Middle East conflict is now “upending traffic forecasts,” given the region’s role as both a direct destination and a key transfer hub for Asia-Pacific routes. Approximately 11% of seat capacity at European airports is linked to the Middle East.

Diverging National Performance

Significant disparities persist across national markets.

Within the EU+ area, airports in Eastern and peripheral countries posted double-digit gains, including:

• Slovakia (+98.0%)
• Slovenia (+20.8%)
• Malta (+17.2%)
• Ireland (+13.8%)
• Poland (+11.8%)

Among larger EU markets, Italy led with +4.1%, followed by Germany (+3.5%), Spain (+2.6%), France (+2.1%) and the UK (+2.0%).

By contrast, the Netherlands (-7.3%) was hit by adverse weather, while Iceland (-4.3%) and Latvia (-3.2%) were impacted by airline capacity cuts.

In the non-EU+ region, Moldova (+35.4%), North Macedonia (+31%) and Israel (+24.4%) recorded the strongest growth, while Montenegro (-1.7%) and Kazakhstan (+0.1%) underperformed.

Istanbul Overtakes Heathrow

In a notable shift among Europe’s largest hubs:

• Istanbul Airport (+6.4%) became Europe’s busiest airport in January with 6.9 million passengers, surpassing Heathrow Airport (+2.2%) at 6.5 million.
• Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport (+3.5%) overtook Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport (+0.7%) for third place.
• Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (-9.1%) was affected by severe weather disruptions.
• Istanbul Sabiha Gökçen International Airport (+14.3%) delivered the strongest performance among major airports.

Small Airports Recovering Slowly

Airports handling fewer than one million passengers saw the fastest growth (+12.7%), yet remain -28.7% below pre-pandemic volumes. Only 49% of small airports have fully recovered to 2019 levels, underscoring structural fragility in that segment.

Freight and Movements

Freight traffic expanded by +6.4% year-on-year, with strong performances at:

• Liège Airport (+18.1%)
• Istanbul Airport (+17.1%)
• Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport (+12.5%)

Aircraft movements rose modestly by +1.8%, but remain -6.9% below 2019 levels.

January’s data confirms that European aviation demand remains fundamentally resilient, particularly in international markets. Yet geopolitical developments—especially in the Middle East—now introduce a significant risk factor that could reshape traffic patterns and connectivity across the continent in the months ahead.