Disappointingly slow growth in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production, says IATA

SAF production doubled from 2023 to reach 1 million tonnes (1.3 billion litres), but this accounts for only 0.3% of global jet fuel and 11% of global renewable fuel.

Initial 2024 estimates of 1.5 million tonnes were missed due to delays in key U.S. SAF facilities, now expected to ramp up in 2025. By 2025, SAF production is forecasted to hit 2.1 million tonnes, or 0.7% of global jet fuel.

Challenges & Criticism

• Mixed Policy Signals: Subsidies for fossil fuel exploration undermine SAF investment momentum.
• Profitability Gaps: Airlines operate on slim margins (3.6%), and SAF investors need to adopt long-term strategies for profitability.

Willie Walsh, IATA Director General, urged governments to:

1. Phase out fossil fuel subsidies.
2. Implement strategic incentives for renewable energy production, particularly SAF.

Marie Owens Thomsen of IATA highlighted that aviation’s decarbonisation is part of a broader renewable energy shift. SAF production benefits multiple industries and requires fair access for airlines to renewable energy resources.

Investment Needs

To achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, the aviation sector needs:

• 3,000–6,500 new renewable fuel plants.
• Annual investments of $128 billion, less than half the historical investments in solar and wind energy.

Immediate Measures for SAF Expansion

1. Increase Co-Processing: Allow higher volumes of renewable feedstock in existing refineries to save $347 billion in capital expenditure.
2. Diversify SAF Production: Expand beyond HEFA pathways to scale Alcohol-to-Jet and Fischer-Tropsch technologies.
3. Global SAF Accounting Framework: Develop a transparent registry to ensure airlines can claim environmental benefits and prevent double-counting.

A recent IATA survey found strong support for SAF:

• 86% of travellers believe governments should incentivise SAF production.
• 86% agree oil companies should prioritise SAF supply to airlines.

Conclusion

Achieving meaningful progress requires bold government policies, diversified investments, and accelerated renewable energy initiatives to meet aviation’s decarbonisation goals.