Embraer has forecast demand for 8,500 new commercial jets with fewer than 150 seats over the next 20 years, representing a market worth US$650 billion, according to its Market Outlook 2026 released ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow.
The Brazilian manufacturer expects global passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), to grow by 3.7% annually through 2045. China is forecast to record the fastest growth at 5.2% per year, followed by the Middle East (4.6%), Africa (4.4%), Latin America and the Caribbean (4.3%), Asia Pacific (4.1%), Europe (2.7%) and North America (2.0%).
According to Embraer, changing global trade patterns, regional manufacturing growth and evolving travel preferences are driving demand for more frequent air services between smaller cities, strengthening the market for sub-150-seat aircraft.
Despite slower traffic growth, North America is expected to account for the largest share of aircraft deliveries, with 2,670 jets (31%), followed by Europe/CIS (1,870; 22%), China (1,470; 17%), Asia Pacific (1,050; 13%), Latin America (740; 9%), Africa (370; 4%) and the Middle East (330; 4%).
By 2045, Embraer forecasts that Asia Pacific and China together will account for 40% of global passenger traffic, overtaking the combined share of Europe and North America, which is expected to decline to 37%.