Boeing forecasts global freighter fleet will exceed 4,000 aircraft by 2045

Boeing expects global air cargo traffic to double over the next two decades, supporting a 67% expansion in the dedicated freighter fleet to 4,010 aircraft by 2045, compared with 2,395 in 2025.

Its 2026 World Air Cargo Forecast, released at the Air Cargo Forum in Miami, projects demand for 2,930 new-build and converted freighters. Approximately 55% of deliveries will support growth, with the remainder replacing older aircraft. Passenger-to-freighter conversions are expected to account for around two-thirds of deliveries.

Boeing forecasts annual cargo traffic growth of 3.5%, driven by e-commerce, supply-chain diversification and time-sensitive shipments for advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Trade flows involving Asia are expected to represent approximately 60% of the global market.

Dedicated freighters are forecast to continue carrying more than half of global air cargo traffic, while express operators’ share will approach 25% by 2045. Boeing said changing production locations and geopolitical disruption were also reshaping networks and trade lanes.

The manufacturer’s outlook follows record air cargo traffic in 2025, when volumes grew by nearly 5%. Boeing estimates that airlines operating freighters accounted for approximately 90% of the sector’s US$170 billion revenue that year.