Boeing forecasts global commercial fleet to exceed 50,000 aircraft by 2045

Boeing expects the global commercial aviation industry to continue its long-term growth trajectory despite short-term geopolitical and economic disruptions. In its 2026 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), released ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow, the manufacturer forecasts that global passenger traffic will double by 2045, driving the commercial fleet to more than 50,000 aircraft, nearly 80% larger than today.

The company projects demand for 43,625 new aircraft over the next 20 years, with around half replacing older, less fuel-efficient models. Single-aisle aircraft will dominate deliveries with 33,545 units, followed by 7,715 widebody aircraft, 1,435 regional aircraft and 930 freighters.

Boeing forecasts annual passenger traffic growth of 4%, supported by expanding tourism, trade, point-to-point connectivity and rising demand in emerging markets. While mature markets will account for 45% of new aircraft deliveries, the remaining 55% will be destined for fast-growing regions such as China, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa.

The outlook also highlights continued strength in air cargo, with traffic expected to grow 3.7% annually through 2045. Boeing predicts demand for more than 2,900 new and converted freighters as global e-commerce and supply chain requirements continue to expand.

According to Boeing, airlines are increasingly investing in more fuel-efficient aircraft to reduce operating costs and support sustainability goals, while continuing to expand route networks and diversify their product offerings to meet evolving passenger demand.