Airbus forecasts 46% growth in global freighter fleet by 2045

Airbus expects the worldwide dedicated freighter fleet to grow from 2,360 aircraft in 2026 to 3,460 by 2045, an increase of approximately 46%, driven by fleet replacement and expanding air cargo demand.

Its 2026 Cargo Global Market Forecast, presented at the Cargo Facts Symposium, estimates a requirement for 2,670 freighter deliveries over the period. Replacements will account for 1,580 aircraft, with a further 1,090 supporting growth.

Passenger-to-freighter conversions are expected to supply 1,700 aircraft, compared with 970 new-build freighters. By size, demand comprises 1,140 single-aisle aircraft, 860 medium widebodies and 670 large widebodies.

North America will lead demand with 925 deliveries, followed by Asia-Pacific with 850. Together, the regions represent approximately two-thirds of the total. Europe and the CIS will require 515 aircraft, Latin America 165, the Middle East 125 and Africa 90.

Airbus forecasts annual air cargo traffic growth of 3.2% over the next two decades, outpacing projected global trade growth of 2.9%. It identifies e-commerce, high-value technology shipments and the use of air freight as an alternative to maritime transport among the principal drivers.

Asia-Pacific is expected to remain the leading region for international air cargo traffic, with North American connections forming the largest market. Airbus sees opportunities for its A350F and passenger-to-freighter conversions across the A320, A321 and A330 families as operators replace older aircraft.