Brussels Airlines in 2020

Join this forum to discuss the latest news that happened in the world of commercial aviation.

Moderator: Latest news team

Post Reply
User avatar
sn26567
Posts: 36581
Joined: 13 Feb 2003, 00:00
Location: Rosières/Rozieren, Belgium
Contact:

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sn26567 »

A330 OO-SFE currently operating a repatriation flight from Kinshasa.
André
ex Sabena #26567

User avatar
sn26567
Posts: 36581
Joined: 13 Feb 2003, 00:00
Location: Rosières/Rozieren, Belgium
Contact:

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sn26567 »

ETA 20:49 SN1054 A330 OO-SFP (Eurowings livery) repatriation flight from NSI (Yaounde)
André
ex Sabena #26567

rwandan-flyer
Posts: 370
Joined: 19 Dec 2010, 12:30

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by rwandan-flyer »

sn26567 wrote:
28 Mar 2020, 16:34
ETA 20:49 SN1054 A330 OO-SFP (Eurowings livery) repatriation flight from NSI (Yaounde)
Same thing today, but it's OO-SFL https://www.flightradar24.com/BEL1053/244a5b5e

OO-SFP is flying to Lmoe https://www.flightradar24.com/BEL9905/244a5275

User avatar
sn26567
Posts: 36581
Joined: 13 Feb 2003, 00:00
Location: Rosières/Rozieren, Belgium
Contact:

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sn26567 »

rwandan-flyer wrote:
29 Mar 2020, 10:41
OO-SFP is flying to Lome https://www.flightradar24.com/BEL9905/244a5275
The return flight SN1078 has CGN as destination (which seems normal for an aircraft in Eurowings colours).

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/sn1078
André
ex Sabena #26567

Darjeeling
Posts: 252
Joined: 29 Dec 2006, 10:13

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Darjeeling »

I was talking to a good friend TRI/TRE flying for Brussels Airlines and the future looks very dark. Lufthansa Group will give financial priority to Lufthansa FIRST and nothing is sure about a Belgian State Aid, cash situation is critical at SN as we speak (type...).

The current situation is that SN is currently working on a smaller business plan to restart the operations by beginning of May at the very earliest, with barely half of the existing fleet operating. Taking into account that Africa will only be really affected by the Covid-19 crisis when Belgium will be on the light slope. Many U.S / Canadians travellers have cancelled their trips for this summer as well, even on the lucrative Africa- N.Atlantic - Africa VFR market. Forward booking aren't any good either for the leisure market side.
Moreover, this time, SN will be closely scrutinized by Federal State for its health protection procedures, unlike what happened when Ebola outbreak barely weakened their operations and profits (let's face it, they have been very lucky that time). Nothing will be forgiven this time and African ops will only be cleared under strict conditions.

Hence the idea to restart (or should I say reboot ??) a very light SN for summer 2020. But I doesn't look good.
Last edited by Darjeeling on 31 Mar 2020, 13:43, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Conti764
Posts: 1729
Joined: 21 Sep 2007, 23:21

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

Darjeeling wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 13:38
I was talking to a good friend TRI/TRE flying for Brussels Airlines and the future looks very dark. Lufthansa Group will give financial priority to Lufthansa FIRST and nothing is sure about a Belgian State Aid, cash situation is critical at SN as we speak (type...).

The current situation is that SN is currently working on a smaller business plan to restart the operations by beginning of May at the very earliest, with barely half of the existing fleet operating. Taking into account that Africa will only be really affected by the Covid-19 crisis when Belgium will be on the light slope. Many U.S / Canadians travellers have cancelled their trips for this summer as well, even on the lucrative Africa- N.Atlantic - Africa VFR market. Forward booking aren't any good either for the leisure market side.
Moreover, this time, SN will be closely scrutinized by Federal State for its health protection procedures, unlike what happened when Ebola outbreak barely weakened their operations and profits (let's face it, they have been very lucky that time). Nothing will be forgiven this time and African ops will only be cleared under strict conditions.

Hence the idea to restart (or should I say reboot ??) a very light SN for summer 2020. But I doesn't look good.
Not unexpected imho... LH itself will have pretty difficult times ahead, LX will probably be okay eventually but SN, OS and EW will have to be careful. I wouldn't be surprised to see SN and OS being up for sale in the not so distant future. The entire aviation world will change heavily and it remains to be seen how the Belgian government will react.

Logically, given the importance of SN to the second biggest economic pool in Belgium, they would do everything to keep SN afloat, but given the hostile approach towards aviation in this country...

Poiu
Posts: 822
Joined: 14 Nov 2015, 09:38

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Poiu »

Conti764 wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 14:24
I wouldn't be surprised to see SN and OS being up for sale in the not so distant future. The entire aviation world will change heavily and it remains to be seen how the Belgian government will react.

Logically, given the importance of SN to the second biggest economic pool in Belgium, they would do everything to keep SN afloat, but given the hostile approach towards aviation in this country...
For sale? Who would want to buy 150 million of consolidated loss and 500 million of debts?

As I wrote at the start of the corona crisis, its useless to pump money into a bottomless pit, just let go and start something from scratch with 15 short and 3 or 4 long haul aircraft.

nordikcam
Posts: 1052
Joined: 24 Aug 2008, 10:22
Location: Uccle

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by nordikcam »

Poiu wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 15:20
Conti764 wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 14:24
I wouldn't be surprised to see SN and OS being up for sale in the not so distant future. The entire aviation world will change heavily and it remains to be seen how the Belgian government will react.

Logically, given the importance of SN to the second biggest economic pool in Belgium, they would do everything to keep SN afloat, but given the hostile approach towards aviation in this country...
For sale? Who would want to buy 150 million of consolidated loss and 500 million of debts?

As I wrote at the start of the corona crisis, its useless to pump money into a bottomless pit, just let go and start something from scratch with 15 short and 3 or 4 long haul aircraft.
The first thing will be to see how LH will get out of this story and how healthy EW will be. Then SN, OS and SR..;oups LX !

Ansett
Posts: 529
Joined: 13 Apr 2016, 19:12

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Ansett »

LH's priorities will be to save….(guess)….LH....and LX. This crisis might be a good excuse to either put EW on hold or abandon it. SN and OS will probably be left as collateral damage. FWIW.
9/11 and SR killed Sabena.
Covid-19 and LH will kill brussels airlines.
History repeats itself.

User avatar
cathay belgium
Posts: 2257
Joined: 18 Aug 2008, 00:17
Location: Lommel-Belgium
Contact:

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by cathay belgium »

Hi,

Why would LH kill SN..
Corona will just give them the tools they need...
Shrinking to the minimum needs to make money...
There is money to be made in BRU but with less Planes,People, rules to follow... And government support.
We need an airliner and with no other options... No DAT,Virgin anymore to restart... I guess LH Will get what they want...not we but they...

CXB
New types flown 2020 : A321neo,B781
New types planned : E140-E190E2

Johan23
Posts: 63
Joined: 12 Aug 2005, 00:00
Contact:

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Johan23 »

Poiu, can you please start a new carrier, I am begging you.
Let me know where I need to put my CV. I would love to fly for your perfect company. With all your good ideas you must be a CEO somewhere earning big money, never left alone by headhunters. If not, what happened?

User avatar
Conti764
Posts: 1729
Joined: 21 Sep 2007, 23:21

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

Poiu wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 15:20
Conti764 wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 14:24
I wouldn't be surprised to see SN and OS being up for sale in the not so distant future. The entire aviation world will change heavily and it remains to be seen how the Belgian government will react.

Logically, given the importance of SN to the second biggest economic pool in Belgium, they would do everything to keep SN afloat, but given the hostile approach towards aviation in this country...
For sale? Who would want to buy 150 million of consolidated loss and 500 million of debts?

As I wrote at the start of the corona crisis, its useless to pump money into a bottomless pit, just let go and start something from scratch with 15 short and 3 or 4 long haul aircraft.
I am not saying someone would buy 'today's SN' 1 on 1, but I can imagine LH putting it on sale when the Germans will have their hands full with LH itself...

And then it remains to be seen who would buy the airline. Probably nobody considering the mess aviation will be in for years to come once Covid-19 is finally over.

And that's where - in my opinion - the Belgian government(s) need to step in to temporarely keep SN afloat untill somebody invests in it again and SN finds a more logical umbrella to operate under than LH's. And to be clear, I'm not fingerpointing to anyone or blaming the Germans bit I have alwayq thougth of SN being a strange fit within the LH network.

It could very well be a handful of Belgian investors, together with some other airlines seeing potential in the (once again) renewed airline.

And SN shouldn't be taken over 1/1, but they should at least retain the profitable international routes, even the lossmaking TATL routes to feed into the African ops, at least until a (new) TATL partnership is found. And it could very well be UA and AC since apparently they are pretty satisfies with their respective BRU ops...

Ditch as many A319/A320 aircraft as possible and become a full service carrier again. An XL SN Brussels Airlines so to say...

I don't believe in building again from scratch, but trimming down onto a solid base and restart from there.

User avatar
Conti764
Posts: 1729
Joined: 21 Sep 2007, 23:21

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

cathay belgium wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 17:03
Hi,

Why would LH kill SN..
Corona will just give them the tools they need...
Shrinking to the minimum needs to make money...
There is money to be made in BRU but with less Planes,People, rules to follow... And government support.
We need an airliner and with no other options... No DAT,Virgin anymore to restart... I guess LH Will get what they want...not we but they...

CXB
If that's what it takes to retain some Belgian aviation in the future, even having a brighter future on the long run, so be it...

LH would not put SN down just for the joy of it. If a trimmed down SN would prove to be making money for the LH group I am convinced LH will happily invest in it to make it grow again in the future.

But I highly doubt LH is going to put a lot of effort into SN and OS. LH first, then LX and only then maube SN and OS...

sean1982
Posts: 3252
Joined: 18 Mar 2003, 00:00
Contact:

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sean1982 »

Conti764 wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 17:35
cathay belgium wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 17:03
Hi,

Why would LH kill SN..
Corona will just give them the tools they need...
Shrinking to the minimum needs to make money...
There is money to be made in BRU but with less Planes,People, rules to follow... And government support.
We need an airliner and with no other options... No DAT,Virgin anymore to restart... I guess LH Will get what they want...not we but they...

CXB
If that's what it takes to retain some Belgian aviation in the future, even having a brighter future on the long run, so be it...

LH would not put SN down just for the joy of it. If a trimmed down SN would prove to be making money for the LH group I am convinced LH will happily invest in it to make it grow again in the future.

But I highly doubt LH is going to put a lot of effort into SN and OS. LH first, then LX and only then maube SN and OS...
I think the contract with JAF will probably reviewed too. As the demand will be reduced substansially in the forseeable future, JAF's fleet will be more than enough to cover their operations. The contract with SN i would assume will be burried quickly which leaves them with even more planes that they dont need due to their path of unsustainable growth. That and with Africa not recovering for a long time to come I would not be very happy with the Belgian government to put money into a company which is likely to go under, while we all will still have to pay that money back. There are voices already about having to work even longer, more taxes, more "besparingen". A poll with some high stake Belgian investors might be a good indicator on the survivability of this airline.

User avatar
Conti764
Posts: 1729
Joined: 21 Sep 2007, 23:21

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

sean1982 wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 18:04
Conti764 wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 17:35
cathay belgium wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 17:03
Hi,

Why would LH kill SN..
Corona will just give them the tools they need...
Shrinking to the minimum needs to make money...
There is money to be made in BRU but with less Planes,People, rules to follow... And government support.
We need an airliner and with no other options... No DAT,Virgin anymore to restart... I guess LH Will get what they want...not we but they...

CXB
If that's what it takes to retain some Belgian aviation in the future, even having a brighter future on the long run, so be it...

LH would not put SN down just for the joy of it. If a trimmed down SN would prove to be making money for the LH group I am convinced LH will happily invest in it to make it grow again in the future.

But I highly doubt LH is going to put a lot of effort into SN and OS. LH first, then LX and only then maube SN and OS...
I think the contract with JAF will probably reviewed too. As the demand will be reduced substansially in the forseeable future, JAF's fleet will be more than enough to cover their operations. The contract with SN i would assume will be burried quickly which leaves them with even more planes that they dont need due to their path of unsustainable growth. That and with Africa not recovering for a long time to come I would not be very happy with the Belgian government to put money into a company which is likely to go under, while we all will still have to pay that money back. There are voices already about having to work even longer, more taxes, more "besparingen". A poll with some high stake Belgian investors might be a good indicator on the survivability of this airline.
I can understand your reasoning, but letting SN sink down would mean a huge blow to Brussels Airport as well, still Belgiums second economical pool.

It would throw BRU back 15 years, with (maybe) a small national airline doing a handful of long haul flights with a small fleet of A330's and a couple of A319/320's to Europe, some transatlantic destinations which are sustainable on their own, the ME3 and that's pretty much it. And neighbouring country's airlines 'stealing' the bulk of passengers away from BRU...

PttU
Posts: 368
Joined: 24 Nov 2015, 15:07

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by PttU »

Conti764 wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 18:52

I can understand your reasoning, but letting SN sink down would mean a huge blow to Brussels Airport as well, still Belgiums second economical pool.
I've seen this argument a few times, but how much does that economical activity rely on SN? Just a thought:

Cargo-operations are a big part of the economical revenue, but only part of it flies on SN planes. And if other carriers take over routes from SN, they also take over (part of) the cargo they take with them.
For passengers then: if SN drops out of leisure destinations, others will take over: TUI flying their own customers (and others), Corendon,... And for business destinations, at least part of it will be taken over by other parties: flights to LHR by BA, flights to FRA/MUC/TXL etc by LH. Yes, probably some passengers will fly from other airports: either CRL, OST or ANR which would be neutral for Belgian economy, partly from CDG, AMS, DUS?,...

So all in all: BRU had ~25M passengers, of which ~10M flew SN. Assuming the worst case that SN would disappear 100% (assuming no influence by the impact of Corona on all other airlines and travel in general), and assuming only half of the passengers would be taken over by other airlines: this would mean only 20% less passengers for BRU. Assuming a 50/50 split of economical revenue between pax and cargo, this would mean "only" 10% loss? That would mean to support SN would be a great cost, with a moderate effect.

I think the impact of the global economy going down, less travelling (far less travelling this year at least) and all other consequences will be more than those 10% which would be covered by saving SN.

User avatar
Atlantis
Posts: 4425
Joined: 12 Apr 2005, 00:00

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Atlantis »

PttU wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 21:58
Conti764 wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 18:52

I can understand your reasoning, but letting SN sink down would mean a huge blow to Brussels Airport as well, still Belgiums second economical pool.
I've seen this argument a few times, but how much does that economical activity rely on SN? Just a thought:

Cargo-operations are a big part of the economical revenue, but only part of it flies on SN planes. And if other carriers take over routes from SN, they also take over (part of) the cargo they take with them.
For passengers then: if SN drops out of leisure destinations, others will take over: TUI flying their own customers (and others), Corendon,... And for business destinations, at least part of it will be taken over by other parties: flights to LHR by BA, flights to FRA/MUC/TXL etc by LH. Yes, probably some passengers will fly from other airports: either CRL, OST or ANR which would be neutral for Belgian economy, partly from CDG, AMS, DUS?,...

So all in all: BRU had ~25M passengers, of which ~10M flew SN. Assuming the worst case that SN would disappear 100% (assuming no influence by the impact of Corona on all other airlines and travel in general), and assuming only half of the passengers would be taken over by other airlines: this would mean only 20% less passengers for BRU. Assuming a 50/50 split of economical revenue between pax and cargo, this would mean "only" 10% loss? That would mean to support SN would be a great cost, with a moderate effect.

I think the impact of the global economy going down, less travelling (far less travelling this year at least) and all other consequences will be more than those 10% which would be covered by saving SN.
I have the impression that a lot of people still don't get it. Aviation will be drastically changed.

Certain people think that other airlines will jump to take over SN or their routes.

WRONG

All airlines suffer very badly now. They will even not use all their current planes anymore for a long time. Cash has to come in again. That's the most important, priority. Investments will be postponed.

So why would they take over an other airline?

As from the moment that aviation is allowed again, not the full slots and frequencies will be used, but gradually introduced depending on the demand.

Yes, SN has a huge impact on this second economic pool in Belgium. More then 10 million pax, bcs of the home carrier and member of Star, certain long haul decided to start flying to BRU. If not, they also will stop flying. So the impact of 10 million will be even much higher
The number of people working on the airport is also an effect of the home carrier.
How everything will evolve? Nobody can say. Africa is extremely important to SN we will see how it will develop there.

It will become again to back to basics, to the core business after some months. TUI, Corendon, Transavia will be for leisure flights. SN for business flights.
Ryanair and Easyjet the mix

The government should support the aviation business no matter who is the main shareholder. It is their duty to keep open the lines and the traffic. And otherwise the scenario of Alitalia to nationalise the home carrier bcs there will be no interest at all, at least not this year

Hard facts, not nice to hear, but this is the reality now

Passenger
Posts: 6709
Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Passenger »

Atlantis wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 22:21
...I have the impression that a lot of people still don't get it. Aviation will be drastically changed... All airlines suffer very badly now...
Exactly. And some people who now predict how the bankruptcy of Brussels Airlines will be settled, are at job risk themselves.

User avatar
Conti764
Posts: 1729
Joined: 21 Sep 2007, 23:21

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

PttU wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 21:58
Conti764 wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 18:52

I can understand your reasoning, but letting SN sink down would mean a huge blow to Brussels Airport as well, still Belgiums second economical pool.
I've seen this argument a few times, but how much does that economical activity rely on SN? Just a thought:

Cargo-operations are a big part of the economical revenue, but only part of it flies on SN planes. And if other carriers take over routes from SN, they also take over (part of) the cargo they take with them.
For passengers then: if SN drops out of leisure destinations, others will take over: TUI flying their own customers (and others), Corendon,... And for business destinations, at least part of it will be taken over by other parties: flights to LHR by BA, flights to FRA/MUC/TXL etc by LH. Yes, probably some passengers will fly from other airports: either CRL, OST or ANR which would be neutral for Belgian economy, partly from CDG, AMS, DUS?,...

So all in all: BRU had ~25M passengers, of which ~10M flew SN. Assuming the worst case that SN would disappear 100% (assuming no influence by the impact of Corona on all other airlines and travel in general), and assuming only half of the passengers would be taken over by other airlines: this would mean only 20% less passengers for BRU. Assuming a 50/50 split of economical revenue between pax and cargo, this would mean "only" 10% loss? That would mean to support SN would be a great cost, with a moderate effect.

I think the impact of the global economy going down, less travelling (far less travelling this year at least) and all other consequences will be more than those 10% which would be covered by saving SN.
Great, more flights to Germany, the Netherlands, France and the UK... Exactly what happened from 2002 on, after the demise of Sabena.

BRU will loose international connections they have today because of SN's hub at BRU.

737MAX
Posts: 449
Joined: 29 Aug 2017, 08:46

Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by 737MAX »

Passenger wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 23:00
Atlantis wrote:
31 Mar 2020, 22:21
...I have the impression that a lot of people still don't get it. Aviation will be drastically changed... All airlines suffer very badly now...
Exactly. And some people who now predict how the bankruptcy of Brussels Airlines will be settled, are at job risk themselves.
And? :roll:

Post Reply