Air Transport in Africa Outlook

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rwandan-flyer
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Air Transport in Africa Outlook

Post by rwandan-flyer »

It's hard to see such reports about Aviation in Africa. But when we can see such reports, we learn so many things.

Biggest regional routes (pax), in Africa are mostly in Eastern and Southern Africa
Biggest continental routes (pax) between Africa and rest of the World, are mainly from Africa to Middle East. No Brussels African route, in the top 10

Glad to see Kigali 8-) . Kigali Entebbe is among the busiest routes in Africa, with over 120 000 pax per year, with 3 daily flights by RwandAir. Uganda Airlines will soon resume flights to Kigali, from December 2019 trafic will grow. I thought Kigali Nairobi was busiest. Kenya Airways operates between 2 and 3 flights a day, while RwandAir operates 3 flights a day and sonn the Kenya Airways Low cost JamboJet

Biggest hub in Africa (in term of connecvity) and biggest airports (pax and freight), it's not a suprise to see Johannesburg, Addis Ababa, Cairo, Casablanca and Nairobi. And they are big competitors for non African airlines

Central Africa has a very poor record. The most of expansive airports in Africa, are in Central Africa.

If an airline wants to serve Africa, go to East Africa or Southern Africa, then West and North Africa

https://www.afraa.org/wp-content/upload ... _Final.pdf

rwandan-flyer
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook Q1 2019

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Another analysis, interesting with the capacities proposed by the African companies, in Africa.

Ethiopian Airlines, South African Airways, Royal Air Maroc, Kenya Airways, RwandAir and Egyptair are the companies with the largest capacity on the African network. But there is big gap between the capacities on routes and the number of pax. On some routes, we have more than 500,000 seats in a year for traffic that runs between 100,000 and 200,000 pax per year.

Harare (Zimbabwe) -Johannesburg: 749,300 seats for 2019. For 2018, traffic reaches barely 200,000 pax
Kigali (Rwanda) - Entebbe (Uganda): 523,100 seats for 2019. For 2018, traffic reaches barely 120,000 pax

The average load factor on flights in Africa is 60%

Brazzaville-Nouakchott, opeated by Mauritania Airlines is probably one of the longest flight in Africa, with 4 stops (Pointe Noire, Libreville, Cotonou & Bamako). How an airline can get profit with this ? Better to fly from Brazzaville to Nouakchott via Paris Cdg, with Air France.

Africa is a reputed market for having a high yield, but the load factor are too low. Low competition, no sky opening, high fees, very low intra-African trade, big restriction of visas, .... If we reached a 80% load factor on these routes, it will change a lot of things

https://www.anna.aero/2019/10/24/africa ... pian-is-1/

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sn26567
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook Q1 2019

Post by sn26567 »

It seems that to increase their load factor, African airlines are asking government protection against fifth freedom rights by non-African airlines. That could backfire, because Ethiopian, for example, has many fifth freedom routes within Europe.
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sn26567
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook Q1 2019

Post by sn26567 »

I cannot resist publishing one picture of the anna.aero article mentioned by Rwandan-Flyer:

Image
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lumumba
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook Q1 2019

Post by lumumba »

rwandan-flyer wrote: 24 Oct 2019, 17:37

Brazzaville-Nouakchott, opeated by Mauritania Airlines is probably one of the longest flight in Africa, with 4 stops (Pointe Noire, Libreville, Cotonou & Bamako). How an airline can get profit with this ? Better to fly from Brazzaville to Nouakchott via Paris Cdg, with Air France.
This flights in my opinion are very useful here in Africa all this stops give the opportunity to fly between them .
For example the TAAG flight Luanda Brazzaville Bangui Douala Luanda.
Was very popular between those stops I use to fly every week Bangui Douala and it was almost full every time the tickets where expensive though.
Hasta la victoria siempre.

rwandan-flyer
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook Q1 2019

Post by rwandan-flyer »

This flights in my opinion are very useful here in Africa all this stops give the opportunity to fly between them .
For example the TAAG flight Luanda Brazzaville Bangui Douala Luanda.
Was very popular between those stops I use to fly every week Bangui Douala and it was almost full every time the tickets where expensive though.
In deed tag service in Africa are common sight. All airlines in Africa have tag service, even South African Airways (Johannesburg-Accra-Abidjan).

rwandan-flyer
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Air Transport in Africa Outlook

Post by rwandan-flyer »

It's possible to remove Q1 2019 and write only Air Transport in Africa Outlook, only, thanks

IATA has also updated its data, for Africa (not all unfortunately). As for Europe, the situation is deteriorating. The figures seem to be less impressive than in Europe, the traffic being lower.

The restart may take longer. Aviation in Africa, has many constraints that Europe does not have:

Low demand. The middle class is low in Africa, despite a population of 1 billion.
No open skies policy
Many restrictions for trade and visa (there is no such thing as an African Schengen)
Very low point-to-point traffic.

Example:

A typical Congolese living near the Tanzanian border will prefer the bus to go to Dar es Salaam (economic capital of Tanzania and one of the largest ports in Africa). It will go through Burundi or Rwanda. It will be longer (at least a day and a half, if there is not a mega traffic jam on the road due to an accident), but it will surely cost him less than taking Air Tanzania in Bujumbura or RwandAir in Kigali. Only Congolese businessmen or women, expatriates or humanitarian workers, can afford to fly. It doesn't make many people

Then

Airlines were already in the red, before covid19
Africa has the highest fuel price in the world
A significant foreign workforce (American, French, Indian or British pilots). So a higher salary.
A poorly skilled local workforce, hence the recruitment of foreign staff
Huge investments to be made to upgrade infrastructure

https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-08-13-03/

Image

For Rwanda, it was 1,151,300, pax, in 2018 (at least 90% for Kigali). Going down to 500,000 pax, this is the level of the early 2010s https://www.newtimes.co.rw/news/aviatio ... llion-mark

Image

https://www.iata.org/contentassets/a686 ... diakit.pdf

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