Brussels Airlines in 2020

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Atlantis
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Atlantis »

Small update.

Cs gave today also more news after the quarter figures regarding state aid. Swiss and Edelweis received already, or at least confirmed, 1.5 billion euro. For SN and OS it is still running but could be together more or less 500.000 million. What LH will receive from foreign state aid will be deducted from their own 9 billion euro.

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lumumba
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by lumumba »

Flanker2 wrote:
03 Jun 2020, 19:59
lumumba wrote:
03 Jun 2020, 18:31
Flanker2 wrote:
03 Jun 2020, 17:23
LH Group EBIT Q1 2020 by airline unit

LX -82M
SN -93M
OS -197M
EW -233M
LH -787M

Group EBIT -2,676 Billion EUR


This is the ugly EBIT for a Q1 where the first half was barely affected by flight groundings in Europe.
So what happens in Q2?
Fully grounded, EBIT could be about -5 Billion.
Flying empty aircraft for the second half of June, the EBIT could be - 6 Billion.

Now I would like to call your attention to LH Group's balance sheet as of March 31st 2020.
https://investor-relations.lufthansagro ... 20-1-e.pdf
Equity was about 7.5 Billions as of March 31st.
Substract 1.8 Billions of intangibles.

So you have 5.7 Billions of tangible equity.
Add the above loss of 5-6 Billions and LH is not only cash-flow insolvent, but also balance sheet insolvent.

I'm being candid because I'm not touching the 20.5 Billions worth of aircraft, engines and spare parts which can no longer be taken at face value because the market for these has imploded.
Also never mind the fact that LH is probably holding a billion of cash hostage in exchange for vouchers.

So for those of you working for and defending LH, welcome to our new reality. The crane's neck is broken.
You are working for a company on its way to becoming insolvent, if it isn't already.

The German government is going to prop it up with a 3 Billion loan + 7 billion in non-voting shares.
Why? Because if they only give a loan, the equity position doesn't change, they would still be insolvent.

The question now is... how long will the LH balance sheet stay afloat with 7 Billions in equity.
Fully grounded? Probably 2 quarters.
Flying half-empty? Probably 1 quarter.

Does a loan help LH's situation?
No, they need equity.


So what does this mean for SN and a Belgian State Aid?
Even if it were a loan, the 290-390 Millions could be wasted money by the end of the year as the whole Group could be bankrupt by then.
Newsflash: lending money to a business on its way to bankruptcy is very risky.
So much for loaning money at 0% and lending it for 4%.
If LH Group goes bankrupt in the long chain of bankruptcies that is awaiting, it's going to end up being loaning at 0% and lending at -100%.


If SN splits from LH in the future, propping them up now will only strengthen a future competitor, which would be a foolish move.

Politically, propping up a foreign-owned company today will look very bad, when domestic businesses are failing.
We can't save every subsidiary of a foreign company operating in Belgium.
If you start with SN, where will it end?
If you're going to have to give a similar-sized state aid to the entire BEL20 and BEL-mid, Audi Brussels, Toyota Europe, Volvo Trucks, Accor Hotels, Quick, McDonald's, Carrefour, Lidl, Aldi etc... it's Belgium NV/SA that is going to be bankrupt.

SN employs 4000 in Belgium, big deal.
Colruyt alone employs close to 30.000.

As much as you love to give me the finger, you know that I've been right more often than not in the past, so stay real.
But Flanker2 there is a big difference with Colruyt and Brussels Airlines .
The first one will always be there if they disappear another shop will open but Brussels Airlines is bringing cash to Belgium bringing outside money to the Belgium economy like the port of Antwerp for instance.
Even if TUI disappear people will fly to Holliday destination but with another company.
The HUB of Brussels Airlines is something different and that's strategic!
I think that you are not seeing things clearly.
Don't let the logo and Belgian registration and headquarters fool you.
Brussels Airlines is a fully owned German company.

Brussels Airlines is now as Belgian as Ryanair.
Ryanair also employs loads of people in Belgium, should we also give them state aid?

If SN goes bust, the void will be filled by other airlines in no time, just the same way as people will shop elsewhere if Colruyt goes bust.
You can't call the subsidiary of a foreign company a "strategic national asset" when you don't have any control over it.

You guys are not thinking this through.
Everything is open again, everyone back to work, published infection numbers are down as if the virus had vanished, and the crisis is resolved right? So why are the stores empty? Why are airlines postponing route relaunches? The consumer has stopped consuming. It's called consumer confidence.
Do I need to paint a picture? Here it is:

Image

https://tradingeconomics.com/belgium/co ... confidence

I don't know about your situation, but I'm hearing people getting fired right and left at my company and from former colleagues at their companies.
We're going to have bankruptcies galore this summer and into the next year.


So if you want to use Brussels Airlines as a strategic national asset, sure, make it a national company and invest even 3 Billions in it.
However, if the Germans want to be in control and do whatever they like, let the Germans sort it out.
No it will not be the same has Colruyt because the HUB creates wellness it attract more passengers that's the difference with a non hub Airport like Dusseldorf or Berlin or Lyon .
Even DHL is using the Brussels HUB to send there package to Africa etc...
It's not important it's owned by a foreign company it will be more and more like this in the future.
Hasta la victoria siempre.

Flanker2
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Flanker2 »

The media is reporting that whatever amount the Belgian government provides, it will be deducted from the loan that Germany is providing to LH.

This means that Belgian taxpayer money would only replace German taxpayer money and not supplement it.

So it's meaningless to support this.

Belgium can keep these funds for when Lufthansa inevitably fails and a new airline needs to be set up.

With LH deadset on taking market share, they are restarting way too many routes. This is going to cause huge losses in the coming months.
Once they start flying again, people won't be booking, people who have vouchers will be using those first, lessors, banks and suppliers will be claiming their payments and the overhead will increase.
How I know that people won't book? Because I'm receiving email after email of flight cancellations as even LCC's like Easyjet and Transavia are postponing flight relaunches as bookings remain sparse even to typical high season destinations, and this is for July.
All of this will happen during the 3 busiest months of the year for leisure travel, after which 6 cold months await.

Lufthansa may fail for real this time, unless Germany keeps giving them money. Right now that looks feasible, but in 6 months every German company will be asking for state aid, and then saving Lufthansa will no longer be a priority even for Germany.
If consumption stays low for the next 3 months, the entire economy will start to collapse in a domino-effect.

I work for a company whose owners are Belgian aristocrats, a family running one of the bigger Belgian companies. Big fish. When I see said aristocrats on the workfloor, micro-managing with fear written on their faces and mindful about every Euro that is wasted, I find it rather out-of-touch to suggest that it's justified to give away money to a foreign company without a plan, just because it's remotely strategic.

Sure, Belgium needs an airline.
But we can't give away money for a shaky hub to Africa that can collapse at any moment, to an airline that is in constant restructuring, owned by people who have little to no interest in developping it.

nordikcam
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by nordikcam »

I do not understand the fight of Flanker ... the new white knight of the country ... it would be funny if not unbearable to read ...

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Av24.be
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Av24.be »

Can we please keep the discussion civilized ? We removed several off-topic comments.

www.aviation24.be/rules

Passenger
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Passenger »

The announcement by the Belgian Safety Council (03th June) that non-essential travel will be allowed again as from 15th June, should be the final relief for Brussels Airlines. But it is not. HLN yesterday wrote: “Lufthansa heeft het nergens zo moeilijk als in België” (for Lufthansa, it’s nowhere as difficult as in Belgium). And RTBf wrote: “Brussels Airlines: direction et syndicats campent sur leurs positions” (management and unions camp on their positions). It seems indeed that the trade unions stick with the self-protectionism plan by the pilots. That plan is unrealistic because the savings are not enough to cover the losses, and because it's based upon the expectation that things will be normal again in 2023.

Last weekend, prof. Wouter Dewulf (Transport Economics, Antwerp) said on Kanaal Z: “the trade unions should have returned the responsability to Lufthansa – I hope they will do so the latest by Monday (02/06)”. And they didn't: they repeated their demands. And time really runs out: Dewulf isn't sure that Brussels Airlines will get a safety jacket on time: “it still can go both ways”, he said on Kanaal Z.

Both the Belgian government and the trade unions ignore the basic fact that Belgium has more to loose then Lufthansa has. Just set all emotions and anti-LH bias here aside, and calculate what Lufthansa will loose in case of bankruptcy - versus what Belgium will loose. Lufthansa will loose the capital that they have invested, a selected number of contracts they will be forced to honour, some feeder passengers for their long haul, and the prospect of dividends. But LH doens’t count on that: they first have to clean the deficit, and that will take allmost 10 years. Basic facts: 65M cumulated loss till 2018 (fact), 50M loss 2019 (rumour), 93M loss 1Q2020 (statement), more loss for 2020 (expectation). Repeat: even if SN Airholding would make a profit of 75M in 2023, it is legally not allowed to pay a dividend to Lufthansa before the cumulated loss is gone. So why would Lufthansa invest in airline that offers a weak prospect of return-on-investment?

(I don't calculate what Belgium will loose when Brussels Airlines disappears, because that exercise is endless).

Source Kanaal Z:
https://kanaalz.knack.be/talk/z-talk-me ... 04463.html
Source HLN.be:
https://www.hln.be/geld/economie/geen-d ... ~aad7765d/
Source RTBf:
https://www.rtbf.be/info/economie/detai ... d=10514624

Flanker2
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Flanker2 »

Passenger wrote:
04 Jun 2020, 13:37
The announcement by the Belgian Safety Council (03th June) that non-essential travel will be allowed again as from 15th June, should be the final relief for Brussels Airlines. But it is not. HLN yesterday wrote: “Lufthansa heeft het nergens zo moeilijk als in België” (for Lufthansa, it’s nowhere as difficult as in Belgium). And RTBf wrote: “Brussels Airlines: direction et syndicats campent sur leurs positions” (management and unions camp on their positions). It seems indeed that the trade unions stick with the self-protectionism plan by the pilots. That plan is unrealistic because the savings are not enough to cover the losses, and because it's based upon the expectation that things will be normal again in 2023.

Last weekend, prof. Wouter Dewulf (Transport Economics, Antwerp) said on Kanaal Z: “the trade unions should have returned the responsability to Lufthansa – I hope they will do so the latest by Monday (02/06)”. And they didn't: they repeated their demands. And time really runs out: Dewulf isn't sure that Brussels Airlines will get a safety jacket on time: “it still can go both ways”, he said on Kanaal Z.

Both the Belgian government and the trade unions ignore the basic fact that Belgium has more to loose then Lufthansa has. Just set all emotions and anti-LH bias here aside, and calculate what Lufthansa will loose in case of bankruptcy - versus what Belgium will loose. Lufthansa will loose the capital that they have invested, a selected number of contracts they will be forced to honour, some feeder passengers for their long haul, and the prospect of dividends. But LH doens’t count on that: they first have to clean the deficit, and that will take allmost 10 years. Basic facts: 65M cumulated loss till 2018 (fact), 50M loss 2019 (rumour), 93M loss 1Q2020 (statement), more loss for 2020 (expectation). Repeat: even if SN Airholding would make a profit of 75M in 2023, it is legally not allowed to pay a dividend to Lufthansa before the cumulated loss is gone. So why would Lufthansa invest in airline that offers a weak prospect of return-on-investment?

(I don't calculate what Belgium will loose when Brussels Airlines disappears, because that exercise is endless).

Source Kanaal Z:
https://kanaalz.knack.be/talk/z-talk-me ... 04463.html
Source HLN.be:
https://www.hln.be/geld/economie/geen-d ... ~aad7765d/
Source RTBf:
https://www.rtbf.be/info/economie/detai ... d=10514624

If the Germans stand to lose so little, why do you keep singing their propaganda?

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lumumba
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by lumumba »

Another solution would be like Alitalia nationalize or a new state company from scratch but I'm sure they will keep a airline at Brussels Airport.
Hasta la victoria siempre.

Passenger
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Passenger »

Flanker2 wrote:
04 Jun 2020, 16:31
If the Germans stand to lose so little, why do you keep singing their propaganda?
I didn't say "Lufthansa will loose so little". I said that Belgium will loose more then Lufthansa, in case Brussels Airlines ceases.

But then... to understand this, one needs to be able to set all emotions and anti-LH bias aside.

Passenger
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Passenger »

lumumba wrote:
04 Jun 2020, 18:30
Another solution would be like Alitalia nationalize or a new state company from scratch but I'm sure they will keep a airline at Brussels Airport.
Italian newspapers report that Margarethe Vestager, the EU Commissioner for Competition, rejects the Alitalia construction.

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lumumba
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by lumumba »

Passenger wrote:
04 Jun 2020, 18:51
lumumba wrote:
04 Jun 2020, 18:30
Another solution would be like Alitalia nationalize or a new state company from scratch but I'm sure they will keep a airline at Brussels Airport.
Italian newspapers report that Margarethe Vestager, the EU Commissioner for Competition, rejects the Alitalia construction.
Let's see what the EU is going to do in my opinion they will just bark and let it go.
Hasta la victoria siempre.

Flanker2
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Flanker2 »

Passenger wrote:
04 Jun 2020, 18:40
Flanker2 wrote:
04 Jun 2020, 16:31
If the Germans stand to lose so little, why do you keep singing their propaganda?
I didn't say "Lufthansa will loose so little". I said that Belgium will loose more then Lufthansa, in case Brussels Airlines ceases.

But then... to understand this, one needs to be able to set all emotions and anti-LH bias aside.
Isn't it interesting that you are bluntly admitting that you are singing the German propaganda?
All this time you spent around here, you were doing PR work apparently, trying to influence opinions.

I think that to understand what is best for SN, its staff and Belgium, everyone need to set aside the pro-LH bias.

I can't believe that some SN fans are still waving the Lufthansa flag even after what is going on now.
I can tell you that the 4000 people working for SN right now are going through a nightmare.
They are all in fear about their jobs and the incompetent management are nowhere to be found.

Where are the big job cut announcements at EW, LH, OS, LX?
And yet, they have no problem cutting jobs at SN.
lumumba wrote:
04 Jun 2020, 18:30
Another solution would be like Alitalia nationalize or a new state company from scratch but I'm sure they will keep a airline at Brussels Airport.
I would have no problem with that.
I would also not have a problem with a continued partnership with Lufthansa in some form.

But the problem of SN has to be resolved once and for all.
Having an anemic and weak airline is hurting us all: businesses, corporations and individuals across Belgium.

Lufthansa has had the opportunity to do it.
They had the opportunity to turn SN around and would have achieved it if only they had invested in it instead of thinking of ways to downsize it or to merge it into EW.
Even as Belgium is willing to offer them a second chance and the funds to do it, LH is turning the offer down and already eyeing more downsizing.
They just don't get it.


The EU competition authorities have no spine to stand on after they barely slapped LH on the hand for their 9.8 Billion gift from Angela.
I think that SN would have no problem forfeiting 2% of its slots at BRU to any new competitor in exchange for a generous present from the Belgian government. It's Covid-19, can't let the airline go bust for something that is not their fault.

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cathay belgium
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by cathay belgium »

Hi,

When looking for booking I noticed at SN booking site.. BHX again operated by Cityjet ???????
Cityjet is gone...

New contract for winter season by any other operator?? and more A319 lay offs... ?? Smaller Planes are needed but as they announced the new-operating routes and timings were on line from now ..

Very strange...

Any info...?

CXB
New types flown 2020 : A321neo,B781
New types planned : E140

Ge203
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Ge203 »

cathay belgium wrote:
04 Jun 2020, 22:02
Hi,

When looking for booking I noticed at SN booking site.. BHX again operated by Cityjet ???????
Cityjet is gone...

New contract for winter season by any other operator?? and more A319 lay offs... ?? Smaller Planes are needed but as they announced the new-operating routes and timings were on line from now ..

Very strange...

Any info...?

CXB
CityJet isn't gone (yet?). The Amsterdam base is closed and the Brussels Airlines contract is said to be rescinded, but is it? I can't seem to find a flight operated by WX, do you have an exact date?

I was looking to go to BLL by October, and checked on both LH's and SN's site. SN : 4004€ (!!!), LH : 140€, for the same flights, on the same dates, same class. What could justify such a difference? And this is something recurrent. The only thing I see, is they want people to book via LH, but for airlines of the same group...

Darjeeling
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Darjeeling »

The "new" intercontinental schedule is now published:

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-04jun20/

It seems like it's the end of the road for both of their A330-200s. OO-SFT/Z will be probably returned to the lessor.

SLM
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by SLM »

No BOB service on board, must be boring for cabin crew. (and also for pax)

Poiu
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Poiu »

SLM wrote:
05 Jun 2020, 17:40
No BOB service on board, must be boring for cabin crew. (and also for pax)
Aviation is going through the biggest crisis in its existence, the majority of airlines are wobbling, crew are facing redundancies and huge salary cuts, do you really think anyone cares about BOB? :roll:

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cathay belgium
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by cathay belgium »

Hi,

Dates with flights in WX are BRU-BHX-BRU 20-22/11 both operated by Cityjet on SN and LH booking site..

No BOB... , Euh as a customer with a mouthmask for flights over 1,5 h.. yes that's very poor... No coffee ??? Sorry as an coffee addict I want my coffee. ..

What's the purpose of the crew then really?
Greet the customer, show them the screens for the safety movie, sit down and say yes to people wanting to go to the toilet.. and give the extra smile when leaving the aircraft ???
Make half of the crew redundant then..
I can open the door when I survived the crash myself , I saw the video ;)

Not funny I know..
But as I can have a coffee at a pub/ cafe nowadays, I maybe can have a coffee on a flight now when the crew has mouthmasks no ?

Or just another reduced service ?
Let's fly FR then ...what's the difference...

Aviation is getting worse then ever.. and with these little things I promise SN will loose the battle soon...

FR announced cheap fares for summer for getting RID of the competition...
1 euro fares to BCN,IBZ,MAD,FCO,..

I won't minimise COvid19 and the crisis but after a crisis you have to be better then the competition...

Not all Will win... But hope for SN the best..

BTW I booked SN ;)

CXB
Last edited by cathay belgium on 05 Jun 2020, 18:57, edited 1 time in total.
New types flown 2020 : A321neo,B781
New types planned : E140

theeuropean
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by theeuropean »

Well Aegean is offering pre-packed snacks. And in an article in the exyu-aviation forum someone flew Swiss and got the small sandwich so I do think BOB should be possible, also LH will start again a meal service for business class passengers. Wizzair never stopped either its BOB, I don't see why SN should abandon it. They should at minimum offer an OS/LX service with a drink and a snack if they are to become a network airline part of LH group.

https://en.aegeanair.com/togetherwithca ... xperience/

https://www.exyuaviation.com/2020/06/lu ... ex-yu.html (scroll down to the comment section about the food).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWczZWZHERI (Wizzair at 7:45mins you see the bob)

Poiu
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Poiu »

theeuropean wrote:
05 Jun 2020, 18:53
Well Aegean is offering pre-packed snacks. And in an article in the exyu-aviation forum someone flew Swiss and got the small sandwich so I do think BOB should be possible, also LH will start again a meal service for business class passengers. Wizzair never stopped either its BOB, I don't see why SN should abandon it. They should at minimum offer an OS/LX service with a drink and a snack if they are to become a network airline part of LH group.
EASA is very clear, minimum service, social distancing or mandatory face mask when social distancing is not possible, so eating and drinking is not recommended without social distancing.

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