Brussels Airlines in 2020

[Darjeeling]

I won't resume the discussion on refunds, but it's now very clear that SN is in deep need of cash.
Ryanair is very responsive on refunds it seems, this won't help SN commercially either.

Yesterday I could grab some info thanks to a friend working there:
- May 15th is the earliest date to restart SOME operations provided situation is safe and viable to operate
- Repatriation flights are needed and welcome to improve cash situation
- Forward bookings situation is terrible (business travel ban are in place until October for some corporate clients)
- Charter production is put at risk due to tour-operators dangerous situations and much smaller volumes expected
- No real update on cash situation but more cancellations than bookings, I let you draw your own conclusions
- If German State helps LH with a bail-out, it will only be for the Germany based assets (not SN, LX, OS thus).

As for most airlines, it's difficult to hedge fuel as no one can predict the volume that will be needed in the future with the forecast reduced operations. You always need to hedge on fixed volumes.

[crew1990]

A proper airlines based in Brussels can't make money, but in the mean time Belgium have to be linked with an home based carrier. This is to me a little bit like the NMBS/SNCB, it can't be in the green but we need it.

To me Brussels Airlines should be nationalised but also should get rid of all those charter stuff and island destination and focus on a smaller network.

Also there should be a better harmonisation between the network of Brussels Airlines and NMBS/SNCB, so that short route could be operated by train service directly linked with the airport. Having 3 A320 flying BRU-CDG everyday shouldn't be tolerated anymore.

[Boavida]

Breaking news from LH Group:

Lufthansa Group decides on first restructuring package

- Significant decline in air travel also expected for period after the Coronavirus crisis
- Suspension of aircraft leads to the first permanent capacity reduction
- The inevitable downsizing of flight operations shall be implemented in a socially responsible manner, among other things, through collective employment models

The Executive Board of Deutsche Lufthansa AG does not expect the aviation industry to return to pre-coronavirus crisis levels very quickly. According to its assessment, it will take months until the global travel restrictions are completely lifted and years until the worldwide demand for air travel returns to pre-crisis levels. Based on this evaluation, today the Executive Board has decided on extensive measures to reduce the capacity of flight operations and administration long term.

The decisions taken today will affect almost all flight operations of the Lufthansa Group.

At Lufthansa, six Airbus A380s and seven A340-600s as well as five Boeing 747-400s will be permanently decommissioned. In addition, eleven Airbus A320s will be withdrawn from short-haul operations.

The six A380s were already scheduled for sale to Airbus in 2022. The decision to phase out seven A340-600s and five Boeing 747-400s was taken based on the environmental as well as economic disadvantages of these aircraft types. With this decision, Lufthansa will be reducing capacity at its hubs in Frankfurt and Munich.

Furthermore, Lufthansa Cityline will also withdraw three Airbus A340-300 aircraft from service. Since 2015, the regional carrier has been operating flights to long-haul tourist destinations for Lufthansa.

Eurowings will also be reducing the number of its aircraft. In the short-haul segment, an additional ten Airbus A320s are planned to be phased out.

Eurowings long-haul business which is run under the commercial responsibility of Lufthansa, will also be reduced.

In addition, the implementation of Eurowings objective of bundling flight operations into only one unit, which was defined before the crisis, will now be accelerated. Germanwings flight operations will be discontinued. All options resulting from this are to be discussed with the respective unions.

The restructuring programs already initiated at Austrian Airlines and Brussels Airlines will be further intensified due to the coronavirus crisis. Among other things, both companies are working on reducing their fleets. SWISS International Air Lines will also adjust its fleet size by delaying deliveries of new short haul aircraft and consider early phase-outs of older aircraft.

In addition, the Lufthansa Group airlines have already terminated almost all wet lease agreements with other airlines.

The aim remains the same for all employees affected by the restructuring measures: to offer as many people as possible continued employment within the Lufthansa Group. Therefore, talks with unions and workers councils are to be arranged quickly to discuss, among other things, new employment models in order to keep as many jobs as possible.

Source: https://newsroom.lufthansagroup.com/eng ... a5d5b2c0d3

[Jetter]

The restructuring programs already initiated at Austrian Airlines and Brussels Airlines will be further intensified due to the coronavirus crisis. Among other things, both companies are working on reducing their fleets.

I wonder what the program will be called now. ‘Hard-reset’ instead of reboot?

[Atlantis]

FWIW this is now my own way of thinking but like I have said many months ago, to have the leisure destinations in the portfolio of SN was not a good idea and this was reflected in the YE figures of SN. The bankruptcy of Thomas Cook and the leisure flights caused that they were running into red figures

So, the only way to really cut in costs is everything regarding the fleet and to look what is too much. Back to basics, and this is always a very good idea.

Leave the leisure flights to TUI, they will be more than happy to have more full flights bcs spread over 2 companies will not be a good idea to fly with half empty planes. There is also Ryanair, Easyjet and next year Transavia. That's a bit too much in this time and next year. so hard decisions will be.

SN has to go back to the pure business flights, connections. With 30 to 35 planes they can start. I think also that prices will be higher again with less service. But this will be the only way for airlines to survive.

The previous model cannot be anymore with flights of 9 euro or sth.

[Conti764]

FWIW this is now my own way of thinking but like I have said many months ago, to have the leisure destinations in the portfolio of SN was not a good idea and this was reflected in the YE figures of SN. The bankruptcy of Thomas Cook and the leisure flights caused that they were running into red figures

So, the only way to really cut in costs is everything regarding the fleet and to look what is too much. Back to basics, and this is always a very good idea.

Leave the leisure flights to TUI, they will be more than happy to have more full flights bcs spread over 2 companies will not be a good idea to fly with half empty planes. There is also Ryanair, Easyjet and next year Transavia. That's a bit too much in this time and next year. so hard decisions will be.

SN has to go back to the pure business flights, connections. With 30 to 35 planes they can start. I think also that prices will be higher again with less service. But this will be the only way for airlines to survive.

The previous model cannot be anymore with flights of 9 euro or sth.

30 to 35 planes seems a bit an overstretch.

A number of planes in the lower 20 should suffice to fly business oriented imho...

Another issue that comes to mind is the fact that the majority of SN's planes (if not all) are leased. Companies who own most of their fleet can have them stand idle, send them to the boneyard of sell them cheaper then their theoretical value.

While SN still has to adhere the leasing contracts or faces a (hefty?) penalty in terminating them early.

[UJspotting]

Airbus A330-223 'OO-SFU' to Marana Pinal Airport (MZJ/KMZJ) as SN9909 for scrapping.

[nordikcam]

SN cancels 8 destinations to 31 of march 2021 : Seville, Valencia, Moscou, Marrakech, Bristol, Hanovre, Billund and Santorin...

https://www.lesoir.be/293607/article/20 ... -mars-2021

[TLspotting]

SN cancels 8 destinations to 31 of march 2021 : Seville, Valencia, Moscou, Marrakech, Bristol, Hanovre, Billund and Santorin...

https://www.lesoir.be/293607/article/20 ... -mars-2021

https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/brus ... mmer-2021/

Direct consequence of the crisis.

[AAI]

and other destinations will follow, one of these days ...

[Atlantis]

Some of those holiday destinations like Valencia and Santorini will not be missed. They are not giving the high revenue. So this is not a surprise and a good move of SN. I think that more of them will follow.

What is, on the other hand, a real surprise is Moscow. This is a city to be. They had of course the strong competition with Aeroflot with good service. If compared with the service of SN and the not always good slots then the bill is made.

Destinations in Germany or the UK are always up and down. Especially the UK seems very difficult for SN with exception of LHR. Maybe there will be now more chance for Air Antwerp on this.

A good cost saving is indeed to stop the lease contract with City jet.

More will follow later

[crew1990]

Valencia is not an "holiday" destination. If you want to go to all those touristic area Benidorm type, then Alicante is your airport.

[Atlantis]

Leave those destinations for Ryanair or Vueling. Its good to check the portfolio now.
BTW SN is not the only one who is doing this. Everything is questioned now by the majority of the airlines

[sn26567]

Some of those holiday destinations like Valencia and Santorini will not be missed. They are not giving the high revenue. So this is not a surprise and a good move of SN. I think that more of them will follow.

Not so sure. The holiday destinations were a good way to increase the usage of the aircraft when business destinations did not have to be served, e.g. during weekends and in the middle of the day. Furthermore,
holiday destination seats were often largely booked by tour operators and provided a fixed income, maybe not very high, but still profitable. The arrangements concluded between TUI and SN a few weeks before the corona crisis were a good example of a deal profitable to both parties.

[Atlantis]

Being popular and profitable are not the same

I agree that during weekends planes are more on the ground due to low business demand. So at that time there is maybe space for more leisure flights.

But during the week it should be during the whole day busy. SN was still not using all possibilities. The European portfolio was too small. In upcoming markets they were not present

If we compare with the Dutch, I know its hard to compare with them, they have a huge European portfolio to feed their longhaul. They have guts, a big mouth and they go for it, they try. We are too modest, too soft

[crew1990]

The european network was not that bad neither, if you compare to Swiss or Austrian or many other airline

[skumfiduse]

I never understood why SN doesn't fly to Helsinki. Finnair has a monopoly with multiple flights a day and fares starting easily at 300-400 euros (roundtrip).

Also, Istanbul is a question mark to me. There's quite some VFR-traffic on this route, thus willing to pay for it, semi-predictable travel pattern and willing to pay for it.

But then again: not every destination/flight is sustainable/profitable with an Airbus A319/A320. The CRJ (and previously Sukhoi Superjet and Dash 8) were a perfect fit on thinner routes. +/- 80 seats vs +/- 140 seats to fill...

[rwandan-flyer]

I never understood why SN doesn't fly to Helsinki. Finnair has a monopoly with multiple flights a day and fares starting easily at 300-400 euros (roundtrip).

Also, Istanbul is a question mark to me. There's quite some VFR-traffic on this route, thus willing to pay for it, semi-predictable travel pattern and willing to pay for it.

But then again: not every destination/flight is sustainable/profitable with an Airbus A319/A320. The CRJ (and previously Sukhoi Superjet and Dash 8) were a perfect fit on thinner routes. +/- 80 seats vs +/- 140 seats to fill...

Finnair fills its flights mainly thanks to its huge network to Asia. AF ended flights to Helsink, late 2000s. HEL is not served by British Airways, Swiss, Alitalia or Iberia.

[Poiu]

According several newspapers Mr D is confident that the Belgian state will bailout SN, although it will be a shrunk version.

[sean1982]

Finnair fills its flights mainly thanks to its huge network to Asia. AF ended flights to Helsink, late 2000s. HEL is not served by British Airways, Swiss, Alitalia or Iberia.

BA does fly to HEL. Did quite a few overnights there.

On another note. Davignon expects support from the state. Pre-liminary figure is 300 million EUR. LH is also at the table with the government. He is expecting to company to shrink 25-30% in order to survive.

My personal opinion: after the hostile take over from LH, I hope de government makes a hard deal here with LH. “Hun vel duur verkopen”. If they don’t, they risk handing 300 million EUR of Belgian taxpayers money to a company just to keep it afloat for a year, seeing they are losing 3million a day! Also I think 30% smaller is overoptimistic. I’m guessing 40-50% smaller.