Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

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Atlantis
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Brussels Airlines future long haul and medium haul fleet

Post by Atlantis »

An interesting topic regarding the "leaking" reboot plan.

As we know, they would like to shrink the fleet. Normal thinking people knows that this is about the European flights.

We know that for the first three years we don't have to expect anything. But my curiosity is also about the mother company. They own SN for the full 100%. Still they decided very unexpected that SN has to be on their own feet, also regarding to finance their own future fleet. How this contract is made? What are the modalities?

E. G. LOT Polish airlines who is part of Star can buy a lot of new B787-8 and B787-9. They are owned by the government and a huge private company. SN owned by big Luftie is receiving nothing...

To come back in the future. The performance of the current long haul fleet is not good. This means extra costs and losing pax. This means also to look for other options.

The Airbus 330-300 is too big for quite some African destinations.
The B787-8 or the B787-9 could be a better option. They can have less pax on board but this plane can fly even further then the current SN long haul fleet. This opens alternatives for other destinations.

As CS confirmed to member Andre that the A321 would be a perfect plane for them, this could be the solution for those tine African lines. This A321 can be used also for the Tel Aviv flights like in the time of Sabena. That flight was always full. Even Cairo can be added.

Maybe South Africa could become in the range of the B787-8.

But also important is extremely good contacts with other Star Alliance partners, code share, JV, etc.

But the Belgian politics has to help in this. Without agreements, nothing will change.

This costs money. Agree. But if you fly with old material, cancel flights, losing pax, then it will cost you even more. Have the guts to invest, have an aggressive plan to enter Africa bcs this is really the future continent. Asia is not stable for the moment, so stay away from it. Africa was and is the future for SN. In the past we had the best Boeing mechanics in the world at BRU. That center should here again. Especially that so many long haul airlines are flying with all types of the Boeing 787 to BRU.

This is a thought. Long haul planes will be smaller in seats but better filled. And new material.

VoloperTe
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Location: Brussels

Re: Brussels Airlines future long haul and medium haul fleet

Post by VoloperTe »

Hi Atlantis,

Thanks for this new topic ! I repeat what i said before, SN must keep a 100% Airbus fleet in the future !! For European network and some destinations like Tel Aviv St Petersburg and Moscow, a mix of A220-100 and A320-200 or newer A320neo it's perfect !
For Africa i think a mix of A330-300 and A321LR and to USA&Canada clearly A330-300.

In Africa what are the most popular destinations? What are the average fill rates ??

Homo Aeroportus
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by Homo Aeroportus »

airbuske wrote: 30 Aug 2019, 21:34
A321Lufthansa wrote: 30 Aug 2019, 13:23
DannyVDB wrote: 28 Aug 2019, 07:42 OO-SFG seems to come back to BRU today ...
It is already planned to fly to Accra today but that seems a bit optimistic to me ...
See: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/oo-sfg

Which bird will be next to get the new interior?

Cheers
Danny
Which one is the next? SFC, SFF or SFX?
OO-SFB ;)

And said SFB is currently on her way back to EBBR.
OO-SFB Back 20191027.png
She has been out for more than 7 weeks so I hope she'll have the new interior.
Due to fly SN277 to ACC tomorrow 28OCT.

Her next rotation will be to DSS on Tuesday which probably (hopefully) means a seat change for me but I will not complain about this one ;)

H.A.

DannyVDB
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by DannyVDB »

It seems they are already shrinking the short/medium haul fleet right now.

Not surprisingly since the winter season started and TC is not existing anymore.

According to https://sites.google.com/site/lhgroupfleet/brussels

- Czech Airlines planes are gone (I think originally part of those were meant to stay year round)
- EW/Germanwings plane is gone too
- One CRJ-900 less (4 instead of 5)
- OO-SSC - Stored in BOD
- OO-SNG - Maintenance in LJU, but leaving the fleet soon
- OO-SNM - Maintenance in LJU (but seems to come back)

Bel33
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by Bel33 »

CRJ: Nantes is stopped
SSC is stored each year during winter

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sn26567
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by sn26567 »

Bel33 wrote: 27 Oct 2019, 21:36 SSC is stored each year during winter
thus, no aircraft to show that SN is part of the Star Alliance? Bad example...
André
ex Sabena #26567

Inquirer
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by Inquirer »

yet the logo is displayed next to the entry door of each plane.

But I agree: it would be smarter to have a plane in STAR colours actually flying, ideally one of their big ones even, because on the intercontinental routes, they are a far more valuable asset to STAR then on regional routes in Europe.

PttU
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by PttU »

Inquirer wrote: 28 Oct 2019, 07:27 But I agree: it would be smarter to have a plane in STAR colours actually flying, ideally one of their big ones even, because on the intercontinental routes, they are a far more valuable asset to STAR then on regional routes in Europe.
But where is the alliance a valuable asset to SN?

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MD-11forever
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by MD-11forever »

Homo Aeroportus wrote: 27 Oct 2019, 15:16
airbuske wrote: 30 Aug 2019, 21:34
A321Lufthansa wrote: 30 Aug 2019, 13:23
Which one is the next? SFC, SFF or SFX?
OO-SFB ;)

And said SFB is currently on her way back to EBBR.
This morning, OO-SFX left as SN9905 to Amman

convair
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by convair »

It's all very well to say the B787 and/or the A321 would be better fits for SN. However, I would like to see their comparative rent and operation costs with those of the current A330s.

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lumumba
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by lumumba »

convair wrote: 28 Oct 2019, 12:29 It's all very well to say the B787 and/or the A321 would be better fits for SN. However, I would like to see their comparative rent and operation costs with those of the current A330s.
For sure that's a good argument.
Hasta la victoria siempre.

PttU
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by PttU »

And the price of changing: re-certification of pilots, technics,...

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Atlantis
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by Atlantis »

convair wrote: 28 Oct 2019, 12:29 It's all very well to say the B787 and/or the A321 would be better fits for SN. However, I would like to see their comparative rent and operation costs with those of the current A330s.

You have to invest in the future. It costs, for sure. But it costs also if your planes are all the time on the ground, re-booking, hotels. And you are flying with very old birds which costs you in fuel. Newer ones are much more fuel efficient.

And look at what your competition in flying with to Africa....

If you stand still and all the time think that tomorrow will be better, you lose

So put aside this very narrow Belgian way of thinking and dare to invest in something new

nordikcam
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by nordikcam »

Atlantis wrote: 28 Oct 2019, 15:27
So put aside this very narrow Belgian way of thinking and dare to invest in something new
It is the Germans who drive SN and not the narrow-minded spirit of any Belgian, right?

PttU
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by PttU »

If you want to invest in something new, you need the money to invest. If you need a loan for that money, and your profitability is only around 1%, you might pay more in interest for that loan than the savings they would bring.
As I heard the reboot-plan, it was about making more profit first and to make investments afterwards. So we can talk, discuss and dream about investments, but I'm afraid the chances they will happen are rather small.

DeltaWiskey
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by DeltaWiskey »

If you average out over all airlines across the world, brand new aircraft will have a very similar total operating cost compared to 2nd hand, until they reach an age of 20-25y. Then heavy maintenance visits become the main cost driver.

For new aircraft, lease / loan payments are high, but maintenance costs (component, engine and heavy maintenance contracts) are cheaper. As these aircraft age, the component contracts and heavy maintenance go up (you usually get a big discount for young aircraft).
As there are many people in all airlines in the world calculating the exact differences, just like there are people at Airbus & Boeing and the leasing companies. When a new type of aircraft is launched, the OEM's can charge a premium as high as "the economic advantage" over the previous generation. Lessors will adjust their prices for 2nd hand aircraft accordingly until a balance is reached again.

When the economy is doing well, the demand for aircraft increases, and both new and 2nd hand price go up. When there is a downturn, all prices are going down.

In the end, the most important is when you sign the contracts.
If you have the balance sheet to sign or renew a contract when is economy is a poor state (think big, like the Ryanair order after 9/11), you will have an advantage over the competition.

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Atlantis
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by Atlantis »

nordikcam wrote: 28 Oct 2019, 15:45
Atlantis wrote: 28 Oct 2019, 15:27
So put aside this very narrow Belgian way of thinking and dare to invest in something new
It is the Germans who drive SN and not the narrow-minded spirit of any Belgian, right?
And what it brings???? According to an unexpected decision again of the CEO of LH they are now on their own legs and has to finance the future by themself and they keep BRU short of every new Star airline. Maybe they saved them for everything stand still for the moment while our neighbours are growing

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Atlantis
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by Atlantis »

DeltaWiskey wrote: 28 Oct 2019, 19:23 If you average out over all airlines across the world, brand new aircraft will have a very similar total operating cost compared to 2nd hand, until they reach an age of 20-25y. Then heavy maintenance visits become the main cost driver.

For new aircraft, lease / loan payments are high, but maintenance costs (component, engine and heavy maintenance contracts) are cheaper. As these aircraft age, the component contracts and heavy maintenance go up (you usually get a big discount for young aircraft).
As there are many people in all airlines in the world calculating the exact differences, just like there are people at Airbus & Boeing and the leasing companies. When a new type of aircraft is launched, the OEM's can charge a premium as high as "the economic advantage" over the previous generation. Lessors will adjust their prices for 2nd hand aircraft accordingly until a balance is reached again.

When the economy is doing well, the demand for aircraft increases, and both new and 2nd hand price go up. When there is a downturn, all prices are going down.

In the end, the most important is when you sign the contracts.
If you have the balance sheet to sign or renew a contract when is economy is a poor state (think big, like the Ryanair order after 9/11), you will have an advantage over the competition.
Exactly Delta Whiskey, this is what I mean

convair
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by convair »

Atlantis wrote: 28 Oct 2019, 15:27
convair wrote: 28 Oct 2019, 12:29 It's all very well to say the B787 and/or the A321 would be better fits for SN. However, I would like to see their comparative rent and operation costs with those of the current A330s.

You have to invest in the future. It costs, for sure. But it costs also if your planes are all the time on the ground, re-booking, hotels. And you are flying with very old birds which costs you in fuel. Newer ones are much more fuel efficient.
Most of the very old birds are now gone and the problems are still there.
Atlantis wrote: 28 Oct 2019, 15:27
If you stand still and all the time think that tomorrow will be better, you lose
So put aside this very narrow Belgian way of thinking and dare to invest in something new
No standing still, but, on the contrary, knowing the figures enables you to take bold decisions at the right time. Since when is knowing what you're doing "a very narrow Belgian way of thinking"?
If you understood that I suggested to do nothing, read my post again, but this time putting first your brains into gear.

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Atlantis
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Re: Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

Post by Atlantis »

convair wrote: 29 Oct 2019, 00:02
Atlantis wrote: 28 Oct 2019, 15:27
convair wrote: 28 Oct 2019, 12:29 It's all very well to say the B787 and/or the A321 would be better fits for SN. However, I would like to see their comparative rent and operation costs with those of the current A330s.

You have to invest in the future. It costs, for sure. But it costs also if your planes are all the time on the ground, re-booking, hotels. And you are flying with very old birds which costs you in fuel. Newer ones are much more fuel efficient.
Most of the very old birds are now gone and the problems are still there.
Atlantis wrote: 28 Oct 2019, 15:27
If you stand still and all the time think that tomorrow will be better, you lose
So put aside this very narrow Belgian way of thinking and dare to invest in something new
No standing still, but, on the contrary, knowing the figures enables you to take bold decisions at the right time. Since when is knowing what you're doing "a very narrow Belgian way of thinking"?
If you understood that I suggested to do nothing, read my post again, but this time putting first your brains into gear.
I'm not speaking about you, I'm speaking about the typical Belgian attitude. They just sit and watch how everything is disappearing. There is no investment in what really matters.

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