Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

[Passenger]

Meanwhile, in Africa:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/16/world ... index.html

[Passenger]

Having experienced the best Belgian hospitals from close-up and having seen their modus-operandis, I think that Belgium can not deal with Ebola outbreaks in the professional and sterile manner that is required. Hospitals in Vlaanderen are like low-cost hotels with mediocre nurses and doctors...

I don’t know what your close up experiences with those Flemish paysant hospitals were, but I certainly do not call them “low cost hotels with mediocre nurses and doctors”. And I know what I’m talking about: as some fellow luchtzak members here know, few years ago I’ve stayed in one of those “low cost hotels” for a few months. And contrary to you, I’m extremely thankful to our “mediocre Flemish nurses and doctors” who managed to get that nasty haematological cancer out of my body.

During my hospital stay I’ve talked a lot about cancer survival statistics with my Flemish mediocre oncologist, and her advice was always the same: “Medecins is no Exact Science so we we don’t rely on statistics. You will become part of statistics (= the Kankerregister) once it’s all over”.

That said – and back op topic now:

I was quite sceptical about those Boston University statistics with a prediction, with extreme accuracy, about when and how ebola would spread worldwide, and their suggestion that we need to stop commercial flights. At least, that's how the study was presented here.

But actually, that Boston university didn’t said that. Forbes contacted professor Alex Vespiognani of the Northeastern University of Boston (see link below). Interesting facts! First of all, they used variable parameters – which need an update once one of the parameters has changed. More important is that professor Vespignani is very clear that a reduce of air traffic will only postpone the inevitable: “For most countries, the results indicate that an 80% air traffic reduction more than halves the probability of importing a case of Ebola. An 80% reduction in air traffic only postpones the inevitable. “This is just delaying by four weeks what would have happened without those travel restrictions,” Vespignani explains. What about a 90% reduction? It would only buy you another month or two” (source: Forbes).

Forbes continues: “A travel ban is short-sighted, and would be ineffective in the long run. It’s the epidemiological equivalent of an ostrich sticking its head in the sand: ignore the problem and hope it goes away. And the Ebola epidemic isn’t going anywhere. It’s actually getting worse: the number of cases in West Africa continues to increase at an exponential rate”.

More info:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jvchamary/2 ... la-travel/
and
http://www.mobs-lab.org/ebola.html
and
http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/arti ... -outbreak/

[sean1982]

Passenger, I agree, experts call for more medical staff in Africa. But are they calling for more tourists back to Belgium?

If Belgium (and Europe) had had-oc flights to transport medical staff to Africa, will you be happy for SN to stop flying there? If not, why not?

Meanwhile you still failed to answer this very valid question?

[FlightMate]

An NBC cameraman infected with ebola will be repatriated to the US, with his coworkers.

Except him, none of the others are displaying symptoms, but they will be quarantined for 21 days.

I very well understood Lumumba's point that people should be allowed to travel freely (well, healthy people only).
Maybe they should all take 'a hit for the team' and be quarantined upon arrival in Brussels.
200 pax per flight, 21 days, I know it may seems expensive and difficult to put in place, but less costly than an outbreak in Belgium?

[Passenger]

Passenger, I agree, experts call for more medical staff in Africa. But are they calling for more tourists back to Belgium? If Belgium (and Europe) had had-oc flights to transport medical staff to Africa, will you be happy for SN to stop flying there? If not, why not?

Wat als? (What if?) is a fascinating fiction program on VTM. I can't respond to your What If question, unless you give me frequency, routing, capacity, (pax and cargo) and operator for these ad hoc flights.

[sean1982]

Enough ad hoc flights to get and keep the rescue going perhaps?

[sn-remember]

I very well understood Lumumba's point that people should be allowed to travel freely (well, healthy people only).
Maybe they should all take 'a hit for the team' and be quarantined upon arrival in Brussels.
200 pax per flight, 21 days, I know it may seems expensive and difficult to put in place, but less costly than an outbreak in Belgium?

I second that

[BAAV]

Fyi, sharing this today's Bloomberg interview with SN CEO I came across after reading on de Tijd that EU Ministers of Health will not take concrete measures re Ebola. Our Min of Health Maggie De Block is quoted ‘Het gaat hier eerder om een paniekscrisis’ (this is more about a panic crisis) and SN to continue to serve the three stricken countries
http://www.tijd.be/politiek_economie/in ... 9-3146.art

On B. Gustin, nothing really new but quite confident statements
Ebola-stricken Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea will keep scheduled flights to Belgium that provide a vital link with the outside world, the head of Brussels Airlines NV said after a personal fact-finding mission to the region.

“Disconnecting completely from the rest of the planet would make the problem even bigger.”

Gustin spoke after traveling last week to the Liberian capital of Monrovia, where he said local safety precautions and the airline’s additional passenger screening are proving effective

“Ebola is a very bad sickness but a very weak virus,” Gustin said. “While the cases we see are shocking, we know very well how it is transmitted. I hope we keep reason, analyze the facts and get out of the panic mode. The hysteria must be overcome.”

for more, see link
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-1 ... visit.html

[Flanker2]

To stop the spread, it needs to be contained.
To reach containment, first these nations need to be isolated.
From there, a globally organised series of full sweeps needs to evaluate every single inhabitant, contain every case of Ebola within the borders and isolate it, so new infections can be avoided.

They need to start this sooner than later.
That's the same thing they did in previous outbreaks, only that it has now far exceeded the geographical and demographic reach of any aid organisations.

Until they do this, it has no sense to fly in medical staff and material, because there will be more and more cases anyway.

If this things jumps over to other countries, it will only further hamper containment efforts as it will spread support resources even thinner. That's why it's already too late.

Is there panick? I don't see panick.
Panick is when people act instinctively and intensively to a situation.
I don't see anarchy in the streets, only people sharing their concerns.

The same mechanism that triggers panick is concern. It's called instinct, it's built in our nature, because we're animals and we're programmed to act instinctively to assure the survival of our species.
When so many people have their instincts trigger concern, there is real danger, because it's our own nature that is telling us that there issomething that requires our immediate attention.

De Block rules out big outbreaks in Belgium. She's basically saying that she's not interested if the few deaths that will come, because that's just part of life.
3 people killed at the Jewish museum is an act of terrorism that they won't stop reminding us about, but the dozens that will inevitably be killed by Ebola are just part of doing business.
And that's supposing that Belgium can contain it, which I seriously doubt until there is a certain remedy for it.

[Passenger]

Fyi, sharing this today's Bloomberg interview with SN CEO I came across after reading on de Tijd that EU Ministers of Health will not take concrete measures re Ebola. Our Min of Health Maggie De Block is quoted ‘Het gaat hier eerder om een paniekscrisis’ (this is more about a panic crisis) and SN to continue to serve the three stricken countries
http://www.tijd.be/politiek_economie/in ... 9-3146.art

Indeed - the fact that no concrete measures have been taken was announced in advance. Tony Borg, the EU Commissioner for Health, said this during his opening speech:

"...One important clarification: We are meeting here as Commission and representatives of the EU Member States and countries of the European Economic Area to discuss an important issue that concerns us all. As such, this is not in any way an extraordinary Council meeting; and we are not here to formally agree or adopt any conclusions. We are here to discuss possible options to address a very important issue. I would like to stress that the European Commission is fully committed to helping the affected countries in every way we can; and to supporting international efforts aimed at bringing the Ebola epidemic to an end as soon as possible..."
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SP ... 698_en.htm

Maggie De Block, Belgian minister of Health, reacted after the meeting as medical doctor: "Rumours and panic are spreading faster than the virus."

[Flanker2]

We'll see who's going to panick in a few months, when the infections reach the 6 figures and it will be too big to contain, unless they find a remedy for it.
Without a remedy, I predict that by March 2015, we'll hit the million cases in 40 different countries, including dozens in Belgium and dozens to hundreds in most West-European countries.
That's supposing that some terrorist group won't start using it as a WMD.

From there, it will be a wild ride.

Ebola is known since a long time, yet there is no cure yet. If it was easy, they would have found it already.

[Passenger]

To stop the spread, it needs to be contained. To reach containment, first these nations need to be isolated. From there, a globally organised series of full sweeps needs to evaluate every single inhabitant, contain every case of Ebola within the borders and isolate it, so new infections can be avoided.

Aha... So you are the HLN forum visitor who posted "isolate those three countries" ?!

(believe it or not, but I already thought so)

[airazurxtror]

Aha... So you are the HLN forum visitor who posted "isolate those three countries" ?!
(believe it or not, but I already thought so)

I don't know who posted that on HLN, but I know for sure that thousends, not to say millions of Belgian are of the same opinion - me amongst them.

[Homo Aeroportus]

... It's called instinct, it's built in our nature, because we're animals and we're programmed to act instinctively ...

On slippery roads when one loses control of his vehicle, instinct is what leads most drivers to hit the brakes.
The worst thing to do of course, as we all know.

H.A.

[airazurxtror]

... It's called instinct, it's built in our nature, because we're animals and we're programmed to act instinctively ...

No, we are not animals, we are human beings and we excercise common sense - although some don't.

[Passenger]

... It's called instinct, it's built in our nature, because we're animals and we're programmed to act instinctively ...

No, we are not animals, we are human beings and we excercise common sense - although some don't.

Common sense is accept that none of us here is an ebola expert, and that we therefore have to listen to the medical ebola experts. Like Dr Tom Frieden, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: “Importantly, isolating countries won’t keep Ebola contained and away from American shores. Paradoxically, it will increase the risk that Ebola will spread in those countries and to other countries, and that we will have more patients who develop Ebola in the US. People will move between countries, even when governments restrict travel and trade. And that kind of travel becomes almost impossible to track".

Forbes adds to this interview with professor Alex Vespignani from the Northeastern University of Boston (the university that was falsely brought up here as asking for a travel ban): Simply put: you can’t seal the country. If you blocked air travel, it would force desperate individuals to use alternative routes – over land and sea – to escape the epidemic. They’ll still end up in the US, except you won’t know where.

Forbes: "A travel ban is short-sighted, and would be ineffective in the long run. It’s the epidemiological equivalent of an ostrich sticking its head in the sand: ignore the problem and hope it goes away. And the Ebola epidemic isn’t going anywhere. It’s actually getting worse: the number of cases in West Africa continues to increase at an exponential rate".

Common sense is to believe what medical ebola experts say. And if that contradicts what HLN forum visitors say, common sense is to give priority to the medical experts.

[airazurxtror]

Brussels Airlines n’a pas pu livrer à temps quelque 252 bagages de passagers en transit par Zaventem, provenant d’Afrique de l’Ouest. Les voyageurs ont pris leur correspondance sans leurs valises, indique ce jeudi la porte-parole de la compagnie aérienne, Kim Daenen. Le traitement des bagages a été perturbé par une action menée par l’Union belge des transports (UBT) qui a appelé les bagagistes à arrêter de décharger les avions en l’absence d’informations concernant la prévention en matière de contamination au virus Ebola.
Les valises en provenance de Sierra Leone et de Guinée ont été temporairement stockées dans l’aéroport de Zaventem.

http://www.lesoir.be/682627/article/act ... tains-vols

Brussels Airlines was unable to deliver on time some 252 passenger baggage in transit through Zaventem, from West Africa . Travelers took their correspondence without their bags , said Thursday the spokesman for the airline , Kim Daenen . Baggage handling was disrupted by an action taken by the Belgian Transport Union (UBT ) who called the porters to stop to unload the planes in the absence of information about the prevention of infection by the Ebola virus.
Suitcases from Sierra Leone and Guinea were temporarily stored in Zaventem airport .

[airazurxtror]

Common sense is to believe what medical ebola experts say.

You must be joking !
Common sense is never to blindly believe what the experts say.
Expects err as often as anybody else - it has been shown many times in the past.

[Homo Aeroportus]

... It's called instinct, it's built in our nature, because we're animals and we're programmed to act instinctively ...

No, we are not animals, we are human beings and we excercise common sense - although some don't.

Dear Airazur,

You realize I quoted someone, do you?

My claim is :
On slippery roads when one loses control of his vehicle, instinct is what leads most drivers to hit the brakes.
The worst thing to do of course, as we all know.


Just to put the record straight.

H.A.

[sn26567]

Common sense is to believe what medical ebola experts say.

You must be joking !
Common sense is never to blindly believe what the experts say.
Expects err as often as anybody else - it has been shown many times in the past.

OK, everybody has now clearly understood that you prefer what the readers of HLN write in that paper's forum to the advice and opinion of worldwide recognised specialists. Can we now stop that discussion and stick with hard facts rather than with "ifs" and "whens" ?