Jet Airways out of Brussels

[RoMax]

Yet how high yielding are these pax? They're probably good to fill the empty seats for 9W, but it's probably not enough to make an additional flight work. Moreover, those ex-US will probably fly via AMS or another hub to their final destination (whaterver is the cheapest).

If 9W stops flying BRU-EWR that would be the 3rd BRU-NYC flight to end. When SN starts an evening flight (JFK or EWR) it would also create a 'new market' for BRU. Currently a lot of pax fly through LHR (for example) to NYC because they want an evening flight. So I'm quite sure that there's a market for an additional UA/SN flight in this market, even with 9W on the BRU-EWR route I see the potential of an evening flight.

[LJ]

Therefore, in the short term I see 2 players UA and AC that could consider taking over the indian routes. AC would operate yyz-bru-del while UA would run the ewr-bru-bom route. Both scisor crossing in bru. I think it could be successfull. At a later stage we could imagine the indian scisor hub model developing to other star hubs like iah, iad or other indian destinations.

Why? I reckon you already know that UA serves both BOM and DEL nonstop from EWR? Thus why would they fly via BRU (and undermine their own flights)? As for AC, why would they fly such a low yielding route and compete with AI, 9W, EK, EY and all the European airlines?I reckon they'll use their resources for better routes (and an additional flight to BRU wouldn't be a bad idea)

[RoMax]

(and an additional flight to BRU wouldn't be a bad idea)

Last I heard was that Toronto-Brussels is on their agenda as a future 787 route, but probably only as from the moment SN insists on taking over Montreal.

[tolipanebas]

Notably on the NY market, 9W pulling out from BRU will bring SN/UA in pole position to increase capacity and finally open that evening flight which will be beneficial to the overal performance of both A++ partners as it will give them a unique position of offering multiple daily frequencies to New York.

Yet how high yielding are these pax? They're probably good to fill the empty seats for 9W, but it's probably not enough to make an additional flight work.

If the plan would be to just target the Belgians getting onto 9W's EWR flight, indeed.
However, contrary to any hard to fill Indian route many here dream about, an additional flight to NYC will be quite easily filled with connecting pax from all over the EU and if they go for EWR, they can also feed UA at the other end of the route. Good loads are thus guaranteed, which should allow for revenue steering. Make it an evening flight and it suddenly becomes far less of an 'everybody's doing it' kind of thing AND it gives A++ a substantial commercial edge over its only remaining competitor on the NYC route, Delta, as A++ will be able to offer the corporate market multiple daily flights between NYC and BRU, thus driving up their yields on the route further: DL will definitely not like the outcome when 9W does pull out, but who cares?

[LJ]

DL will definitely not like the outcome when 9W does pull out, but who cares?

I doubt this. DL has corporate contracts which aren't going anywhere as these are Skyteam alliance contracts. Thus when 9W leaves, it will mean one competitor less and thus higher yields. Moreover, I think you underestimate the number of Skyteam frequent flyers in Belgium.

[RoMax]

I doubt this. DL has corporate contracts which aren't going anywhere as these are Skyteam alliance contracts.

That's also what people said about AA when SN stopped their codeshare with them, and when UA started BRU-ORD and once again when SN started BRU-JFK.

No seriously now, Delta indeed has several strong corporate contracts and there is a rather strong Skyteam client base in Belgium indeed.
But still there's a demand for an evening flight to/from NYC, especially when 9W stops flying the route.

[tolipanebas]

DL will definitely not like the outcome when 9W does pull out, but who cares?

I doubt this. DL has corporate contracts which aren't going anywhere as these are Skyteam alliance contracts. Thus when 9W leaves, it will mean one competitor less and thus higher yields. Moreover, I think you underestimate the number of Skyteam frequent flyers in Belgium.

With BRU quickly turning into an important STAR hub, there's an ever increasing incentive for companies around BRU who haven't done so yet, to jump ship: an evening NYC flight will be another good reason for quite a few of them.

[LJ]

According to the aticle below, BOM-BRU-EWR will become BOM-AUH-EWR next month (subject to government approval). Thus like initially planned AMS will probably be a stopover to YYZ only.

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 023_1.html

[Inquirer]

Already next month? Wouldn't that be very quickly?
They'd inconvenience quite a lot of Belgian passengers with bookings over summer that way!

The one thing which is for sure: Seats to New York will become a rare commodity: the 2 remaining operators will be laughing all the way to the bank, I am sure.
Going twice daily to New York does make sense for Brussels Airlines, especially in light of all this.
Was it just a personal idea of Tolipa, or is it really on the table at Brussels Airlines?
Wonder how long it would take to roll it out, if they get the green light for it?

[Conti764]

If they don't, I must agree with members like Flanker when talking about SN/LH's management vision...

Just a question, but whas the BRU - USA market via 9W so big it could warrant a rapid SN expansion into the US should 9W leave BRU?

[LJ]

Already next month? Wouldn't that be very quickly?
They'd inconvenience quite a lot of Belgian passengers with bookings over summer that way!

I agree, and personally I've some strong reservations if this will happen as we haven't seen a US DOT filing for such a move.

[Conti764]

Yet how high yielding are these pax? They're probably good to fill the empty seats for 9W, but it's probably not enough to make an additional flight work. Moreover, those ex-US will probably fly via AMS or another hub to their final destination (whaterver is the cheapest).

If 9W stops flying BRU-EWR that would be the 3rd BRU-NYC flight to end. When SN starts an evening flight (JFK or EWR) it would also create a 'new market' for BRU. Currently a lot of pax fly through LHR (for example) to NYC because they want an evening flight. So I'm quite sure that there's a market for an additional UA/SN flight in this market, even with 9W on the BRU-EWR route I see the potential of an evening flight.

IMHO, the BRU-NYC market is being brought back to its normal situation. You have A++, with UA which inhereted CO's EWR power hub in NYC with at the other end SN at its home base. With SN entering A++, the NYC partnership with 9W became redundant since SN had more to gain from their A++ joint venture.
The second party is DL, which is not as strong at NYC as UA is, but is still far stronger then AA ever was resulting in AA pulling back from BRU some time ago.

You can see the BRU-US market being brought back to its real proportions. Dominated by A++ (UA, SN), with some markets left for the competition (DL from ATL and AA/US from PHL). For BRU it is better like this, a stronger home base carrier with real ties to the country is better then having an exotic airline promising a lot, but nog bringing much to the table after all.

Now get that A-Pier West and get it fast!

[LJ]

For BRU it is better like this, a stronger home base carrier with real ties to the country is better then having an exotic airline promising a lot, but nog bringing much to the table after all.

Yet, most (if not all) decisions of the home carrier will be (or are already) made in Frankfurt. The current decisions by 9W are driven by EY, just as SN will be driven by policies set by its future owner LH.

[Passenger]

Schiphol Airport calls victory:

http://www.telegraaf.nl/dft/bedrijven/a ... dia__.html

In brief: AMS will be the European hub for Jet Airways flights between India, Europe and the U.S., and there will be dozens of extra flights from Indian cities to AMS.

(edited : I've forgotten "for Jet Airways")

[EBKT]

Schiphol Airport calls victory:

http://www.telegraaf.nl/dft/bedrijven/a ... dia__.html

In brief: AMS will be the European hub for Jet Airways flights between India, Europe and the U.S., and there will be dozens of extra flights from Indian cities to AMS.

(edited : I've forgotten "for Jet Airways")

you are very right, it seems they have been taken a final decision http://buyingbusinesstravel.com/news/22 ... hol-switch

into my opinion this is really sad news for BRU airport and SN. Hopefully LH may consider to help SN growing more rapidly in order to take over Toronto flights, maybe a 2nd daily NY. Imagine if SN want to open flights to India, would they be allowed as India/Belgium flights are existing today or do they have to apply for these rights?

[Air Key West]

Will LH help SN grow ? Not sure. Yes, when Mayrhueber was the boss at LH. Not so sure with Franz. He's hesitating if not clearly reluctant to bring in SN into the LH Group ; otherwise he/LH would have done more than just lend 100M to b.air. Don't forget it's a loan, not really the same as an actual investment imho.
LH will want to keep the Indian market to themselves unless they are faced with traffic rights restrictions, but in that event LH will make LX/OS fly to India, not SN (my opinion fwiw).
The "one extra long-haul aircraft per year" strategy is also a clear sign that LH is not eager to develop b.air and is definitely a strategic mistake. I know : Sn is not EK, but two extra long-haul aircraft per year would be much better for the airline and should be feasable.
My priorities for b.air would be (forgive me for being an armchair CEO) :
1. evening flight to EWR
2. negotiate with AC : AC > Toronto-BRU and SN BRU-YUL
3. convert one A319 into a "long-haul aircraft" on the model/configuration used by IB for some African flights ; let this aircraft fly (if traffic rights permit) 3x weekly BRU-OUA-Cotonou-OUA-BRU and 3xweekly
BRU-Niamey-Lomé-Niamey-BRU. This might make an A330 available to develop other destinations in Africa.
Again, my Top 3 Urgent Priorities (but of course there are more).

[nordikcam]

Will Jet Airways keep the Mumbay BRU or DEL BRU and let the North Atlantic lines via AMS ?

[b720]

Very sad news for BRU, but an opportunity for SN. Will they grab it? We shall find out. An eve. Flight to
NYC .. 5xweek daily high season to BOM, with a deal with Antwerp diamond couriers for diamond shipments
That weigh almost nothing but generate very high revenue is the minimum expansion in my opinion..With SN direct flights to LHR, JFK, TLV, DME, and BOM.
They cover all major diamond hubs (except DXB HKG JNB LX destinations)

[RoMax]

Will LH help SN grow ? Not sure. Yes, when Mayrhueber was the boss at LH. Not so sure with Franz. He's hesitating if not clearly reluctant to bring in SN into the LH Group ; otherwise he/LH would have done more than just lend 100M to b.air. Don't forget it's a loan, not really the same as an actual investment imho.

Franz still wants to integrate SN in the whole group and they are still doing that. The difference is that Mayrhuber's expansion was more one of "as fast as possible and at any cost", Franz doesn't want that. That's why they put so much pressure on SN to return to a profit before a full take over. And yes the 100 million is just a loan, but SN will probably never pay it back. LH probably takes over SN before they are able to pay back such a loan (100 million is not that much, but it is for SN which has 'just' about a billion revenue per year), the money will flow back into LH's books in a more subtile way after a take over.

More on topic. Without Jet, I'm quite sure SN is going to increase their expansion plans for North-America, otherwise they are plain stupid and others (not necessarily at BRU) will run away with the market (also take into account that until late 2012, there were 3 more daily flights on the NYC-BRU market as there will be without Jet, there probably was overcapacity back then, but now there is not enough capacity for the market BRU represents).

2. negotiate with AC : AC > Toronto-BRU and SN BRU-YUL

These discussions have already been done. But with Jet leaving, the plans will probably be executed much faster and/or in a slightly different way. But it will probably simply be SN taking over YUL and AC starting non-stop YYZ.

[crlhub]

Very sad to see SN not present in three BRIC markets like China,India and Brazil.Three countries with an incredible population and still a very big export/tourism potential for the decades to come.
We at BRU(and this is not new)are surrounded by very big hubs like:CDG/AMS/LHR/FRA..we are in the middle of 'nowhere',even if we have solid positive advantages like: the UE,NATO and other international bodies,and so many international corporate headquarters,it seems not to be enough to attract and keep big airlines(in cargo we are doing much better).Bru is also surrounded by mainly or only LCC/CHARTERS apts like Lille,Charleroi,Liege,Eindhoven,Maastricht,Koln or even Dusseldorf.It took too much time after the end of Sabena to retart a new intercontinental network(like Swiss did).12 years after Sabena we are still below the traffic numbers of 2001.