Plane carrying Polish president crashed near Smolensk airp't

[JVJASON]

Hello, juste heard the news a few minutes ago (French radio) : the TU-154 carrying the Polish president Lech Kaczynski crashed during approach to Smolensk airport, possibly because of strong fog. The president was accompanied by his wife, the minister of foreign affairs and different officials. According to first reports, no survivors.

[luchtzak]

132 passengers on board, Polish government announced.

[tolipanebas]

The entire polish elite seems to be wiped out:

President

Leader of the opposition in Parliament

Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces

Secretary of State

Governor of the Central Bank

Archbishop

etc...

[tangolima]

Hello,

Plane involved was 101.

Greetings,

[Carl Hendriks]

Plane involved was 101.

101 taking-off from BRU: http://www.airliners.net/photo/Poland-- ... 1417398/L/

[Bruspotter]

Hello

Yes this really is a tragedy for the Polish people. Indeed quite all direct important people died , except from the prime minister who always travels the second Tu-154 (102) of the Polish Air Force (various reasons for that).
So he must be quite the only capable person to take over the control of the country in the intermediate time untill which elections will be held. There will be a busy and turbulent time to come in Poland I guess.

my condolances to all

Regards, Yannick

[regi]

Well, if the advice is to land in Minsk, but the pilot decides to fly to Smolensk where there is thick fog, than we can talk about a human error. Nothing to do with the origin and age of the airplane.
I wonder if we will be informed how the pilot came to the conclusion to fly to Smolensk, against traffic control advice.
Is that pilot a civilian pilot? Or a military pilot? Could he have been given a (presidential ) order to fly through?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8612825.stm

[Bruspotter]

Hello

Well that's the more the question Regi. Was thinking the same, why not diverting after multiple failed attempts to land. Considering Smolensk airport will probably be not so good equipped if it comes to airport equipment like ILS etc (what CAT I don't know but )... it's a bit odd that he did try multiple times after all. With all do respect but even if you are the president, you would not want to risk such things when it could be perfectly safe, even more so.

Anyway, we will have to await what the actual investigation brings up, we can only speculate with the little information (correct?) that we have at the moment.

regards, Yannick

[TCAS_climb]

Ever heard of "get-there-itis" or "press-on-itis" ? It's a syndrom many pilots have when they are supposed to complete a very specific mission in a specific timeframe. It's slightly more vicious than pure tunnel vision because of self-induced pressure and stress. They disregard most (if not all) the hints that safety is endangered, or is about to be compromised, as they focus only on the mission objectives. Unnecessary risks are taken, cues about hazards are overlooked, ponctuality goes before safety, etc.

Emergency medical services in helicopter are particularly subject this syndrome, partly because of the urgency to save the patient. Dig the Flight Safety Foundation or http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Pres ... (OGHFA_BN) if you want to learn more.

[andorra-airport]

I guess a normal commercial airline would not try 4 times..

The plane left 58 minutes late. It crashed about half an hour before the ceremony would have taken place......

What I think is that the pilot was under big pressure of the big boss behind him to land the plane, and not to divert , which would ruin the ceremony (I know the PIC is in charge, but this was a military plane. He can forget his future by disobeying the orders of his superiors) .

The polish president was known to push pilots.

[mmciau]

The polish president was known to push pilots.

If this is true, then it won't happen again!

Sad indeed for all of Poland.


Mike

[andorra-airport]

The polish president was known to push pilots.

If this is true, then it won't happen again!

Sad indeed for all of Poland.


Mike

Back in 2008, when Georgia and Russia fought their brief war, Kaczynski was on his way to Tbilisi.
Air traffic control told the pilot of Kaczynski's plane to turn back because it was too dangerous to land in Tbilisi, but the president -- who also is commander in chief under Poland's law -- ordered the pilot to land anyway......

[regi]

strange: the black boxes were immediately retrieved but we don't "hear" the first results.

[TCAS_climb]

Well, not necessarily... There are a few good reasons to keep quiet:

• 1. Perhaps the recordings were damaged in the crash and need to be "repaired".
  2. Perhaps the recorders didn't work at all (that happens more often than you think).
  3. Perhaps the recordings reveal a technical problem that needs to be clearly identified.
  4. Last but not least, the recordings give some clues, but not conclusions

What I mean by that is that in an investigation you can't recreate everything that happened in History. It's gone for ever and we may have lost important details. Even if they all survived and could tell about it, you still wouldn't have the complete picture. Investigators are therefore supposed to recreate a model of History that's as close as possible to what really occurred. As we know, all models are wrong but some can be useful.

The danger here is what we call "hindsight bias". We have pieces of information scattered everywhere and our brains automatically starts to draw lines between the dots. The problem is that we may draw incorrect lines between dots that have nothing to do together. Our brain oversimplifies history and it may be totally wrong without realising it.

An easy example ? Early on it was said that the tower advised the pilot to divert since they had tried already three times. The pilot reportedly replied that he would try a fourth and last time before diverting. Ironically, it's during the last attempt that they went way too low (perhaps in order to see the runway) and hit the trees. What did the journalists (i.e. untrained investigators) print? That the pilot disobeyed the orders from the tower! Come on folks, it was not an order, that's a big difference! And on the other hand, the pilot has final authority over ATC. Journalists once again (i.e. as always) fall into the trap of hindsight bias.


Frankly I'm shocked the Russians said so early that there were no technical malfunction. Not because I think there may have been some, but because you don't rule out any possibility until you've completely explored them all.

[regi]

some news drips through:
1.the result of the black boxes is already known:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/arti ... 03785.html

2. the pilot was not familiar with the landing approach system of this military airport
http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/disas ... 9-tu_154-0
(I know : the Pravda has some weird topics. But the details in the article shed a light that was not described by western sources )

[Propwash]

Yeah,

Rule 1: The Pilot is the Boss of the plane
Rule 2: The Boss is the Boss of the Pilot

[FLYAIR10]

An interesting article in the Polish newspaper " Krakow Post" brings some additional concerns on safety of VIP flights (in Poland) and the circumstances of the accident near Smolensk..
See below link.

http://www.krakowpost.com/article/2009



Grtz
Flyair10

[regi]

conclusions are drawn based on the released black box data: independent pilot error.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8624067.stm

[Propwash]

DATE: 24/04/10
SOURCE: Air Transport Intelligence news
Crashed Polish Tu-154 fitted with terrain warning system
By David Kaminski-Morrow

Russian investigators have confirmed that the Polish state Tupolev Tu-154M which crashed on approach to Smolensk had been equipped with a ground collision-warning system.

Full article (Flightglobal)

[sn26567]

RUSSIAN INVESTIGATORS have confirmed that others in addition to the operating crew were in cockpit of the TU 154 which crashed at Smolensk on 10 April killing all on board including Poland's President Lech Kaczynski.

Russian officials said they had identified at least one person who was not a crew member as the plane descended in thick fog towards the airport and added that there was evidence that another passenger – or possibly passengers – was also present.

Indications are that Kaczynski may have personally contributed to the accident by insisting the pilots land, determined as he was to reach Smolensk to attend a memorial service on the 70th anniversary of the Katyn massacre.

Source: AERBT