First Quarter Orders

RC20 · Post by **RC20** » 07 Apr 2007, 02:56

Airbus booked 134 orders (aviation site estimates 6.5 Billion value)

Boeing books 185 orders (aviation site estimates 18 billion value.

Analysis:
Good news for Boeing in value, bad news single aisle sales down. Will need results for all year in that volatile market, but last year could have been an anomaly when they were about even.

This may be what triggers Boeing on the 737 replacement soon.

Also good news is this would make it another very good year for order numbers, and with others looking to chime in, could be really good again.

Good news for Airbus is the bread and butter single aisle still selling very well, really bad news is the wide body market is gone.
Bad news would be if Boeing launches the single aisle 737 replacement, that would likely cause a severe drop in A320 sales in two years (maybe sooner if the 787 is anything to go by.

achace · Post by **achace** » 07 Apr 2007, 04:28

RC20, would you kindly advise your data source please.

Cheers
Achace

boomer535 · Post by **boomer535** » 07 Apr 2007, 23:18

I think that there are fewer orders for the 737 because Airlines sense the introduction of the 737 replacement. If Boeing doesn't announce anything about the 737 replacement by the Paris Airshow then 737 orders should pick up. They can always transfer the orders to the new AC. This is just speculation on my part, I just think Boeing is on a roll now and will use the R&D on the 787 project to speed up the 737 replacement. The only thing Boeing needs now is new engines. Maybe GTF?

RC20 · Post by **RC20** » 10 Apr 2007, 05:26

achace wrote:RC20, would you kindly advise your data source please.

Cheers
Achace

Compiled from several sources. I write down the figures and don't keep the links.

The numbers are in the Seattle times for sure, and the estimates were by an aviation analysis group.

They list the list price, and then their estimates. It was about 30% off for both Airbus and Boeing, which kept the relationship equal as well (3x more value for Boeing).

What I found interesting was the short term A320 sales were better than 737 sales. Last year Boeing was ahead in that category (and you really need the full year for any trend as single aisles are volatile from one quarter to another). 2 year average is better still (and then some analysis like how many switched from one brand to another). Again, if they are always lower, then its a trigger for Boeing to move. They keep saying they want to know what airlines actually want, but I am sure they know by now, just a matter of what pushes them over the edge.

I think they would like to wait another year-even two, but that’s ideal (787 and 747 into production and resources freed up) I think they will move when they hit those trip points that say its time rather than wait. The bonus is pushing Airbus over the edge.

smokejumper · Post by **smokejumper** » 10 Apr 2007, 16:29

Perhaps this article in the Seattle Times is the one that is referenced:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/b ... ing07.html

boeing797 · Post by **boeing797** » 10 Apr 2007, 17:59

boomer535 wrote:I think that there are fewer orders for the 737 because Airlines sense the introduction of the 737 replacement. If Boeing doesn't announce anything about the 737 replacement by the Paris Airshow then 737 orders should pick up. They can always transfer the orders to the new AC. This is just speculation on my part, I just think Boeing is on a roll now and will use the R&D on the 787 project to speed up the 737 replacement. The only thing Boeing needs now is new engines. Maybe GTF?

Why do they still order A320s if they sense the introduction of B737 replacement?

Why don't they order B737 and order A320s instead and later can convert the order to the B737 replacement?