India to play key role in Brussels long haul ventures?

[Macquarie]

Dear all,

I have been reading a lot of topics and stories about the future of Brussels long haul traffic to Asia.
There have been a lot of rumours lately, therefore I decided to register and share my thoughts.

I have knowledge of two serious projects.

The first is a faze one project, it concerns the Indian carrier Jet Airways who has shown interest to connect the Indian capital Delhi with New York, via Brussels.
But the USA and Brussels link is not a priority.
First they will focus on the UK by starting operations to London.
That’s all I know about this one.

The second project is a faze two project, it concerns a new carrier who would operate out of Brussels with a fleet of two a/c to Bangkok and Hong Kong, via Delhi and Mumbai.
No specific information is available about this project.
We can only hope that this time the investors behind this project don’t change their minds.
A similar plan was aborted by the same Dubai based group some time ago.
They wanted to link Brussels with Bangkok and Hong Kong via Dubai.
It seems they have a large portfolio of stakes in airlines and very deep pockets.
But still, they wanted route subsidies and very large discounts at Brussels airport.
I’m afraid that this will once again be the main problem?
I heard that this time they dropped Dubai in favour of Abu Dhabi (the Etihad Airways project), and that they want to serve some key Far-East destinations via the booming Indian market.
I also heard that if they don’t get what they want, they will take their business elsewhere.
But I’m afraid that their terms are unacceptable at the moment.
How long will it take before competing airlines file a complaint, and that the European Commission will start an investigation in regard to the discounts and route subsidies they would get?

I hope by putting this up here, I do not offend anyone.
It is certainly not my intention.
There is nothing wrong with discussing a (strong) rumour, is there?
At first I was very sceptical myself about these rumours, but there are strong indications that they mean business.

My question to you all is (especially the industry specialists): do you think it might work?

Please note that none of the above mentioned projects have officially filed a request yet.
Both projects will certainly not take-off before 2006, if they ever take-off …

Kind regards,

A MAp Brussels employee on holiday in France 8) .

[Avro]

first of all welcome to Lcuhtzak Macquarie. Your first post is very interesting.

Let's hope that at least one of the projects will come true.

If Jet Airways plans to come to BRU it will not be before next year or at least 2 years in my opinion. For the moment they don't even have a long haul plane....

But we should stay optimist.

Chris

[sn-remember]

While not being an industry specialist, I would like to comment if you don't mind.

First this is very good news. It reveals BRU's airport very promising long-haul potential not only because there is no base/flag carrier serving that segment but also because of BRU's interesting geopolitical location (comparable in my opiniion to WAS)
Obviously, one of the biggest avenue for long-haul development lies within the east:west scope.

But to succeed BRU's offer should substantially differentiate from its competitors in terms of costs and convenience
Therefore:
- It seems highly desirable to drop the airport's costs to a minimum for all operators (still too expensive imho)
- A feeder carrier is a necessity ; should be attractive in terms of costs and volumes (welcome SNBA)
- Making a success of long-haul operations should be the priority of all actors because success attracts success.
Also the project must be viable from the start.

The 2 projects you mention seem promising enough.
It is highly desirable to have a successfull indian operator that could implement a real traffic node at BRU. But more operators will be additionally needed developing together the BRU's market place. In order to succeed better at BRU, the long-haulers should try to closely cooperate possibly integrating their respective routes in a bigger set. Therefore, slots arrangements and code sharing should be the rule whenever possible. Why not a sort of "BRU label" that would serve as the glue strenghtening the routes among the different operators.

Another question :
What long-haul traffic can BRU hope to attract ?
Looking at a world globe, of course the Asia::North-America routes pop up as an evidence but Africa should remain the important extra add-on BRU can/will offer !

It is up to us to turn business opportunities into a success stories. Let it be so!

[Pittsboy]

in an article that appeared in Trends today, they mention that Macquarie would like to attract more low-cost companies to BRU and that a long haul connection with Asia is on top of their wish list.

Hopefully these plans will turn out into commercial success for BRU.
To be continued.

[Humberside]

Macquarie, Welcome

[press]

hi,

project 2 was already rumoured at the latest iata conference.
the potential new airline is planning to apply for 1st freedom, 2nd freedom, 3rd freedom and 4th freedom traffic rights.

this means -> allowed to carry pax and cargo between:
bru-del
del-bru
bru-bom
bom-bru
bru-hkg via del, pax for hkg do not leave a/c
hkg-bru via del, pax for bru do not leave a/c
bru-bkk via bom, pax for bkk do not leave a/c
bkk-bru via bom, pax for bru do not leave a/c

not allowed to take on extra pax or cargo between:
del-hkg
hkg-del
bom-bkk
bkk-bom

they want a 50% discount at bru and route subsidies the first 2 years.
they also want to feed their flights by train with the eurostar and thalys.
therefore they want those hst's to make a stop at the airport.
this is still a major problem, hopefully the sncb/nmbs can help out like they did with the sn paris link with thalys?
if a project like this fails to take-off due to eu regulations and politics, bru is doomed to outsource its intercontinental asian traffic.
even if an existent asian carrier flies to bru, offering only one asian destination is not enough.
nobody seems to be seriously interested to link bru with a big asian hub.
a non-stop bru link is hardly viable, so making an extra stop in europe is necessary.
but in that scenario, it is much cheaper and much more efficient to feed those bru pax to major hubs like ams, cdg, fra and lhr or others.
from those hubs pax have a wide variety of frequencies and usually fly non-stop.
it is not viable for asian carriers like cx, sq, tg, mh, ci, br, jl, nh etc ... to fly to bru via big markets like india or pakistan.
it is just not done, they rather fly those routes to and from their hubs.
why would they care about bru?
a new carrier is one of the few alternatives I see.
if there is someone who can do it, it must be the people behind this project.
maybe soon we have a belgian version of emirates? 8)
bru has nothing to lose, so why not?

back to my paper now.

bye

[SN30952]

not allowed to take on extra pax or cargo between:
del-hkg
hkg-del
bom-bkk
bkk-bom

That is surprising, dear press.
An airline that would not have basic traffic rights out of its own country....
That would be a first in aviation history, anyway I never heard of that before. But maybe some other examples exist?
Or would it be a traffic limitation by the Indian Authorities, that designated other carriers for these traffic rights? On the other hand these convernments concerned want to promote open skies. Is your info of proj2 dated, and might there be some evolution meanwhile?

[fly]

Hello to you all,

This project 2 with the dubai based investors group, maybe if they succeed in starting up ops at brussels they will buy a stake in SNBA as SNBA will sell a portion of their stakes.
This will then bring them to long haul ops from Bru to the asian market with their own feeder traffic from their own feeder airline in Bru, if they do that this could be the birth of a new BIG airline in Bru making SNBA expand their own new longhaul network...... the sky is the limit, but maybe I'm just dreaming out loud

cheers .

[fly]

what type of a/c would be the best to suit the proposed routes?
In what stage are the negotiations?
what would be the name?
what nationality would the crews have?

anybody knows more?

[sn-remember]

Project 2:
bru-del-hkg
bru-bom-bkk
Seems viable if you can load pax/cargo in del/bom
Otherwise I should try engineering another scheme.

project 1:
NewYork-bru-del
I should say that any scheme like
NorthEast America/Canada - bru - IndianSubcontinent (Pakistan included)
sounds very viable to me provided the freedom to load pax/cargo in bru is guaranteed and that the carrier is well positionned on the market.
I see room for quite some routes here;

press wrote :

if a project like this fails to take-off due to eu regulations and politics, bru is doomed to outsource its intercontinental asian traffic.

Let us hope not.

Additionally (for the same price ;o) some possibilities that I see:
For what concerns the NorthEastAsia booming market:
Iberia cancelled ops to Japan recently...sad
I believe the route could be reopen more successfully this time with a stop at bru.
And I've been reading that Iberia is code-sharing on ams-hkg with klm.
So I could see profitable Iberia ops at bru looking like this:
mad-bru-tok
bcn-bru-hkg
of course coupled together so that the 2 flows meet at bru where they can interchange.

For what concerns the SEAsia market:
so much tigers are there that there should be an opening from one of them. I would see
HoChiMinVille - bkk- bru as interesting from the Vietnamese carrier
but any other xxx-bkk-bru could apriori be equally promising

And now I stop dreaming aloud
Greetz

[SN30952]

And I've been reading that Iberia is code-sharing on ams-hkg with klm.
So I could see profitable Iberia ops at BRU looking like this:
mad-bru-tok
bcn-bru-hkg
of course coupled together so that the 2 flows meet at bru where they can interchange.
And now I stop dreaming aloud
Greetz

Suppose TOK* = TYO, Tokyo
You suggest to fly BRU-HKG or BRU-TYO non stop? That means you exclude some aircraft type or you limit yourself to some types: A340?
And you need at least 3/7 three weekly frequencies each. That totals to 2 A340's. Does Iberia have that on shelf?

Better for Iberia would be to stop in an other catching area than between LHR, CDG and AMS, FRA. Because in that area the price competition is fierce. (Low yield)
The more Iberia goes North the shorter the flying time is.
imho a stop in the Baltic area would be more fruitful for them. And on the first and last legs, the carrier would have beside cargo volume, a good feeder for its S and M Atlantics which yields would not interfere with its actual S & M. Atlantic yield.
This is not a dream, as I discussed this already some 20years ago with Iberia's Pools & Comm. Contracts Mgr. But this kind of operation will still for longtime, not be a priortiy decision with Iberia.
*TOK = Torokina in ...... Papua New Guinea (not much traffic to BRU nor MAD/BCN there)

[sn-remember]

sn30952 wrote:

The more Iberia goes North the shorter the flying time is.

I don't see any sensible difference in flying time between
mad-bru-tyo* and
mad-baltic-tyo

*I knew there could be an error I had no time to check anyway I knew it would be implicitely corrected by most observant contributors

Because in that area the price competition is fierce. (Low yield)

Price competition is fierce everywhere in EU and the market in my opinion is there. Ex-Sabena proved it after serving the line during 30 years or so.
And I think that you should not be afraid to sell bru as a possible asian gateway (although modest) because it has the potential, it has the location, it has the infrastructure (we still miss the high-speed train link ...for the moment). The basic conditions are there, the "sellers" are missing....and the detractors are in the place ...regrettably

And you need at least 3/7 three weekly frequencies each. That totals to 2 A340's. Does Iberia have that on shelf?

IB received this month a new A340 not the first certainly not the last. I am not pretending that they start next wk, I am just suggesting a possible "success story" . Was there a "bru-seller" at the time IB hesitated continuing the japanese route ? I say there should have been one even before they started hesitating. I am not telling that to blame anybody but just trying to seek the lessons of past failures. It is obvious to me that we should put in place a team of "bru-sellers" proactively selling the place of bru whenever and wherever the market is there.
Back to the frequency objection:
I believe you need caution and ambition in the airlines business. It is not contradictory. So in my view the route shoud eventually be served daily. This is the objective not for the sake of sheer frequency but for the sake of survival.
Let me add this (sorry to be a bit lenghty)
My suggestion of a spain-bru-NEAsia (not just Japan) was just a possible win/win partnership between bru and Spain. I still hope it will come up ...one day.
But I hear that ANA is (re)considering a new expansion program towards the EU.
Are we selling bru as we b.. well need to?
I could see a profitable Japan-Hamburg-bru for example....served daily of course
Saludos

[SN30952]

Here some figures:
MAD-BRU 1316 km 1:37
BRU-TYO 9463 km 11:41= 10779 km

BRU-HAM 483 km 0:36
HAM-TYO 8995 km 11:06 = 9478 km

HAM-BRU 483 km 0:36
BRU-TYO 9463 km 11:41 9946 km Not much diff TYO-HAM or TYO-BRU As did Sabena, the connex time BRU was important.

MAD-TLL 2888 km 3:34
TLL-TYO 7897 km 9:45 = 10786 km TLL-HKG 7847 km 9:41

MAD-RIX 2697 km 3:20
RIX-TYO 8113 km 10:01 = 10809 km RIX-HKG 7954 km 9:49

MAD-LED 3174 km 3:55
LED-TYO 7626 km 9:25 LED-HKG 7537 km 9:18

MAD-HEL 2952 km 3:39
HEL-TYO 7829 km 9:40 HEL-HKG 7821 km 9:39 10772 km
MAD-HEL-TYO is almost a straight line

And to stay on topic!!!
MAD-BRU 1316 km 1:37
BRU-BOM 6873 km 8:29
BOM-HKG 4278 km 5:17 BOM-TYO 6740 km 8:19

BRU-DEL 6411 km 7:55
DEL-HKG 3752 km 4:38 DEL-TYO 5867 km 7:15

BRU-BGL 6896 km 8:31
BGL-HKG 3108 km 3:50 BGL-TYO 5298 km 6:32

[Advisor]

Go India : Grow.

[sn-remember]

Here some figures:
MAD-BRU 1316 km 1:37
BRU-TYO 9463 km 11:41= 10779 km

MAD-HEL 2952 km 3:39
HEL-TYO 7829 km 9:40 HEL-HKG 7821 km 9:39 10772 km
MAD-HEL-TYO is almost a straight line

So
mad-tyo via hel = 2952 + 7829 = 10781 km
To compare with
mad-tyo via bru = 10779 km
Therefore the latter is also a straight line (even slightly straighter )

The ham stop is also right bang on the bru-tyo line (as for mad, it could not be more perfect)
But the perfection on that matter is not always the top requirement as you can observe in the practice.
The frequency is also another important requirement.

Back to the subject :
1. bru-bom-bkk : there is a slight distance overhead but certainly very acceptable.
2. bru-del-hkg : there is here a slightly more significant distance overhead but it is still (in my view) largely acceptable compared to the expected gain of the stop.
I can remember that LH (for instance) did exactly that a few years ago (still the 90ies I think) using a B747 on a daily fra-del-hkg

Never forget that the big hubs of today used to operate more "humbly" not so long ago when the traffic flows were not that strong and the place still a "hub-to-be".

[press]

@sn30952

the new airline would operate out of Brussels, but with LX registered a/c.
it would not be another Indian carrier with VT registered a/c, like you suggested.
the a/c that they seek are not new, but stored a/c standing somewhere in the desert.
they are looking for 2 up to 4 a/c.
two ex-UA 777-200 (type A) a/c are rumoured.
they have a limited range, so a stop in India would make perfect sense.
also 2 ex-MH 747-400M a/c have been offered by Boeing at a very good price.
they would focus on India, China, Japan and Thailand.
but the people behind this project are sharks.
they want all or nothing, and play hard to get.
they are here to make money, not just to put Brussels back on the intercontinental map.
let's keep that in mind!

that's all I know for now.

back to my article.

Bye

[SN30952]

...but the people behind this project are sharks...

Thanks 'press', you're closer to the source
and
Most the people behind aviation projects are sharks or crocodiles!
tiburones o cocodrilos as they say in South American press.

[sn-remember]

All businessmen are sharks if you like (though all sharks are not businessmen )
You don't expect lambs do you ?

Make them come man by all means help them starting and growing in bru, it is your job I suppose putting bru at the center of the airlines business sphere, you should know better even if it sounds a bit tough at the start, don't hesitate, push this project through, go for it, make things change and opportunities happen !

Business making is a permanent revolution.

[press]

project one has been altered to bom-bru-jfk, and now it will be altered once more, to bom-cdg-jfk.
this means no more bru in the jet airways planning.

project two has entered faze three and has been modified.
a big thanks to a few Indian families in the Antwerp area and... for their deep pockets and the much needed know-how.
take-off is scheduled with 2 aircraft around april/may 2006.
The 2 aircraft would be OO- registered after all.
the carrier would be placed under emirates management, the 2 aircraft would be emirates aircraft whose 7 year leases come to an end around that time (A6-EKQ and A6-EKR).
Let's hope that they get some support from biac and the nmbs/sncb.
they are playing hard to get, like every new intercontinental carrier at bru ...

[sn26567]

Thanks for this timely update, press. I guess that the Antwerp Indian families are in the diamond trade and industry?