Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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The Trump administration reached an agreement in principle with major U.S. airlines over a $25 billion bailout to prop up the struggling industry.

The terms of the agreement were not disclosed on Tuesday. The Treasury Department said that Alaska Airlines, Allegiant Air, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Frontier Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, JetBlue Airways, United Airlines, SkyWest Airlines and Southwest Airlines would be participating.

https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/iiK ... 9tWAQAAAAA
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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

Post by Ozzie1969 »

TLspotting wrote: 15 Apr 2020, 12:08BA retires 5 747s, G-CIVL, CIVJ, CIVK, CIVN, CIVN to Kemble, ending 23 years of activities.
You mentioned CIVN twice.

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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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Ozzie1969 wrote: 15 Apr 2020, 23:58
TLspotting wrote: 15 Apr 2020, 12:08BA retires 5 747s, G-CIVL, CIVJ, CIVK, CIVN, CIVN to Kemble, ending 23 years of activities.
You mentioned CIVN twice.
The last CIVN was supposed to be CIVH.
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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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Yesterday's daily review:

Eastar Jet has extended the suspension of all International service until 30 June 2020.

FlyPelican of Australia will be suspending over 90% of its flying until the end of May 2020, due to the pandemic.

HK Express announces the extension of its short-term flight suspension to 18 June 2020, in response to the latest development of the pandemic and travel restrictions imposed by governments around the Asia Pacific.

IndiGo will begin domestic operations only from 04 May 2020 and then gradually ramp it up further, to commence operations on some international routes as well.

Pacific Coastal Airlines has extended scheduled service suspension to 31 May 2020.

SpiceJet chairman and managing director Ajay Singh says airlines in India need short-term support from the government as revenues have dried up due to the outbreak.

Summit Air of Canada says federal support will allow it to bring back employees it recently laid off due to the economic slowdown caused by the pandemic.

China CAA says Chinese airlines reported a 1Q 2020 total loss of US$4.8 billion as the coronavirus pandemic hit travel demand. The total number of passengers fell 71.7% in March 2020, and down 53.9% in 1Q.

India extended the travel restrictions until 03 May 2020, effectively shutting down all domestic and international carrier operations for a longer period.

Senegal has announced the allocation of US$128.6 million to the aviation and tourism sector, with the majority headed for Air Senegal.
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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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Today's daily review:

Aeromar expects Mexican government aid package to be announced in the coming days, to help bail out the country’s airlines suffering from the crisis. In the meantime, the airline will be looking for access to soft loans and short-term bridge loans.

Air Tahiti Nui announced the delay to its regular passenger operation until 31 May 2020.

Airbus is delaying its planned Mirabel production ramp-up of its A220 by one year to mid-2021, as the coronavirus outbreak weighs on broader airline demand for aircraft.

Airbus says it is examining multiple customer requests to defer deliveries after travel demand collapsed because of the coronavirus epidemic. Airbus is talking to customers about their requests to delay deliveries and is seeking solutions case by case and aircraft by aircraft.

British Airways plans to resume flights between London and Singapore in May 2020, although Sydney remains suspended due to travel bans.

Cathay Pacific is “exploring all options” to ensure the airline group survives the impact of the pandemic, as the carrier reported a 90% year-on-year drop in passenger volume for March 2020.

Corsair extended scheduled service suspension until early June 2020.

Eastar Jet
extends cancellation of scheduled domestic flights until 28 May and international flights until 30 June 2020 as it adjusts its business plan amid the crisis.

El Al says it is at the risk of bankruptcy and shutting down if the government does not help with granting it a US$350 million loan to weather the pandemic.

Etihad has unveiled plans to return to a limited schedule of flying from 01 May to 30 June 2020 – subject to UAE government-imposed travel restrictions being lifted.

LATAM Airlines Group will need regional government support as it undertakes a coronavirus recovery process which could last up to two years. The airline has enough cash to operate for three to four months.

TAP Air Portugal chairman Miguel Frasquilho says that the carrier has already addressed a request for assistance to the Portuguese State and hopes to have a response very soon.

United Airlines to further reduce its capacity to about 10% of what had been planned for May 2020 at the beginning of this year. The carrier expects to announce similar reductions to the June schedule, with demand to remain suppressed for the remainder of 2020 and likely into 2021.
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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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Latest update of the situation of airlines and countries across the Eurocontrol network:

By airline:

Image

By Country:

Image
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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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Air New Zealand plans to fire all it’s B777 crew as it is not expecting the aircraft to fly until APRIL 2021!

They expect the airline to shrink 30% in total in order to survive

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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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Daily review:

Air Seoul now plans to resume International service from 01 June 2020, instead of late-April 2020.

Austrian Airlines is extending the short-time working model for its 7,000 employees by a further month until 19 May 2020.

Cathay Pacific will close its three cabin crew bases in the US, laying off 286 staff as the pandemic has virtually halted global travel.

Copa Airlines says it has not requested US$700 million from the government and plans to cope with the crisis on its own.

Embraer and the union representing workers at its Brazilian plant said they had approved a plan to keep the factory open with a fraction of its employees while furloughing the rest at reduced salaries.

JPMorgan says airline business restoration to 2019 ranges of output will probably be a multi-year affair, ensuing within the materials shedding of plane and headcount alongside the way. The firm expects 2021 EBITDAR will get well to inside solely ~75% of 2019.

People’s of Austria extends its resumption of flights until 01 June 2020 due to travel restrictions.

Saudia does not expect flight operations to return to normal until the end of 2020 and is asking some cabin crew employees to suspend their contracts until then.

Sytra says airfares have fallen as much as 30% since the start of 2020 in North America and Europe, while stabilising on a smaller decline in Asia where some coronavirus lockdowns are being eased.

Transavia France has now postponed until 03 June 2020 the possible resumption of its flights.

US DOT
has rejected most requests by JetBlue and Spirit Airlines to halt additional flights in the wake of the pandemic.

Virgin Australia Holdings has suspended trading in its shares to continue talks on financial aid and restructuring alternatives to help it weather the coronavirus crisis.

WestJet to use the coming federal wage subsidy to hire back 6,400 furloughed workers, but it is still laying off 1,700 pilots from 01 May 2020.

Brazil government loans for Brazilian airlines battered by the coronavirus crisis would only be ready in May 2020. The amounts requested by the airlines were higher than expected.

Japan’s top airlines are operating a majority of their domestic capacity even though the coronavirus outbreak has left seats on flights mostly empty, amid a lack of clear government directives on the functioning of transport infrastructure in the crisis.
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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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Air France cancels CDG - LAX - PPT until 31 May, JFK & LAX reduced to 3 times per week and from 4 May, ATL with 2 times per week.
O'Leary says that the market will be back with low fares...
Reuters : easyJet CEO sees flying restarting with empty middle seats
Qatar Airways allowed by the Polish authorities to fly to Warsaw using 777F.
Air Corsica carries on cargo from Lille to Ajaccio :
(Virgin & Tigerair as well)
Iberia to fly repatriation flights from Australia to Spain via Thailand.

Virgin Atlantic : In response to the rapid acceleration and severe impact of Covid-19, we are continually reviewing our flying programme in order to deploy our fleet most effectively. As a result, we have made the incredibly difficult decision to withdraw our London Heathrow to Sao Paulo service which was due to launch on 6th October 2020.
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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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IATA Economics, 17th April 2020 : "We assume a three month lockdown".

Global RPK quarterly profile Q3: Recovery in domestic markets, slow international recovery, recession.
Global RPK quarterly profile Q4: Recovery in domestic, 50% recovery international markets, recession.


Our earlier assessment, published in March 2020, was based on a global economic recession less severe than the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). However, expectations have become much more pessimistic since then. The latest Oxford Economics forecast shows that the loss in global output could be double that of the GFC. This has implications for our view on the speed of the recovery in air travel in the second half of 2020.

In our new scenario, we still assume a three month ‘lock-down’ of the global air travel market but we incorporate recent data for Africa and Latin America which shows that the closures have been extended into Q2 and are approaching the point of complete lock-down, akin to that in Europe.

Today’s chart shows our industry wide RPK growth expectations based on the revised economic growth and capacity assumptions (ed.: chart: see link down below). In Q3, some limited opening of international markets and the release of pentup demand in domestic markets is expected to offset the recession impact. Recovery continus in Q4, but international RPKs are still only expected to have recovered 50% of their initial decline by this time. To provide some additional insight, the dotted pink line shows the impact of the recession alone on RPK growth; i.e. without border closures, the recession alone would cause ~10% fall in RPKs.

Given the assumptions above, we estimate that RPKs will decline by 48% in year-on year terms and passenger revenues will be $314 billion lower this year compared to 2019. As we have noted previously the typical airline has cash to cover around two months of revenue loss. Hence, managing costs in order to cover this unprecedented loss in revenues will continue to be the main concern of the airline industry in 2020.

- - - - -

Sources:
IATA Economics:
www.iata.org/economics-terms
and IATA chart - pdf
https://t.co/ZVHnvMHiaN?amp=1

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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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TLspotting wrote: 18 Apr 2020, 20:15 Qatar Airways allowed by the Polish authorities to fly to Warsaw using 777F.
SAA plans to fire all staff (more than 4,000 employees) if the airline doesn't get any aid.

3 Chinese investors interested by Virgin Australia.

Air Serbia flew to China with an A320 (via Nur-Sultan).

Air France to fly 3 A380 to Tarbes with Tarmac Aerosave, with F-HPJC from AUH, and HPJA and HPJE and 2 A340 (first is F-GLZO, on 22 April.)

In case you're wondering where's the A380 of Hifly, 9H-MIP, it is under maintenance at Tarbes as well.

Brussels Airlines to operate a flight from TFS to BRU on Tuesday, OO-SNE expected.
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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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Virgin Australia is most probably the next airline to fall.

Corsair International :
- Needs to get through the crisis and a state support, but banks give no positive answer (as the airline has to follow criteria's)
- The 747s are out.

SWISS expects to fly 20% (!) of its schedule this summer.
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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

Post by Homo Aeroportus »

Got some storage room?

Time to buy : US oil sells at NEGATIVE prices.

Quoting FT :

Benchmark US oil prices crashed into negative territory for the first time in history as the evaporation of demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic leaves the world awash with oil and not enough storage capacity — meaning producers are paying buyers to take it off their hands.

West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, lost more than 250 per cent on Monday to trade as low as -$40.32 a barrel in a day of chaos in oil markets. Traders capitulated in the face of limited access to storage capacity across the US, including the country’s main delivery point of Cushing, Oklahoma.

https://www.ft.com/content/a5292644-958 ... e55d766654

This for Spot quotes, short term due to very low demand.

Brent is around 25 so also at a record level for +20 years.

The future is not what it used to be.

H.A.

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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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The oil prices so deep in the negative figures is indeed incredible. Never seen that in my long life! Minus 37,63 $ per barrel at the closing in New York. Airlines should start to hedge at that price.

Back to our daily review:

Airbus will furlough some 3,000 French aerospace workers by tapping a government-backed scheme for four weeks starting from 20 April 2020, in its latest effort to cope with the coronavirus crisis.

EasyJet says it cannot terminate its Airbus order by falling back on the argument that the outbreak is a situation beyond its control.

Indigo Partners founder Bill Franke says US airlines will need more government aid and health checks for travellers to get through the crisis., while a quick turnaround is unlikely.

LATAM Airlines Group and its affiliates announced that they will maintain a 95% reduction in passenger operations during May 2020 in the context of travel restrictions and the historical drop in demand due to the pandemic.

Porter Airlines intends to access the federal government’s Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy to return hundreds of its team members to payroll.

Sydney Airport Holdings has secured additional bank debt facilities worth US$539.9 million to weather the massive slump in passenger traffic due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Transat AT plans to use the Canadian federal emergency wage subsidy to rehire 4,000 employees it had temporarily laid off after halting all flights due to the pandemic.

Virgin Atlantic founder Richard Branson has said that a loan from the UK government is necessary to help his airline business survive the coronavirus crisis.

Pakistan’s government extended the suspension of domestic and international flight operations in the country until 21 April 2020 in a bid to contain the coronavirus.
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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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sn26567 wrote: 20 Apr 2020, 22:18 The oil prices so deep in the negative figures is indeed incredible. Never seen that in my long life! Minus 37,63 $ per barrel at the closing in New York. Airlines should start to hedge at that price.
It’s futures for May delivery at -37, you will have to pay a lot for storage which is the big problem as all reservoirs are full... Closing down wells and starting them up again later is very costly, so it’s cheaper to temporary pay someone to get rid of the oil.
Airlines not flying don’t need fuel, some of them are even loosing a lot of precious cash due to bad hedging at the moment.

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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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Negative record at - $38.96!
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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

Post by luchtzak »

Emirates Airline and Philippine Airlines have introduced special measures to continue operating. Is this the future for air travel ?

https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/emir ... -on-board/



https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/phil ... abin-crew/
.
Image

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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

Post by TLspotting »

Air Caraïbes : 16 May, inter-Carribbean flights, 12 June, flights from Paris-Orly to Cayenne, Pointe à Pitre and Fort-de-France, 3 July (only if borders out of Schengen reopen), flights to Haïti, Cuba, Dominican Republic and dear spotters loved SXM !
United Airlines decided to suspend flights until the end of the year to Nice Côte d'Azur, Glasgow Prestwick, Manchester, Shannon, Palermo, Prague Ruzyne, Reykjavik Keflavik and Stockholm Arlanda.
Frenchbee to restart from 12 June.
Air Senegal extends its flights suspension until 30 June 2020.

Daily review :

ANA Holdings revised full year forecast ended 31 March 2020, with operating revenue down 5.7% to US$18.1 billion and net profit down 71.3% to $248.4 million.

Austrian Airlines predicts a 25-50% drop in demand for 2020. A maximum of 75% of the pre-coronavirus level is expected by the end of 2021, and 100% by 2023.

BNDES will help local airlines with up to US$1.9 billion in credit. The companies will issue five- to 10-year non-convertible bonds to be acquired by BNDES. The companies will also issue subscription rights to BNDES to acquire stakes in the companies.

BOC Aviation mandates banks for a proposed 144A/Reg S US dollar senior unsecured bond offering off its US$15 billion global MTN program. BOCA is looking to issue benchmark five-year and/or 10-year bonds.

Delta Air Lines CFO Paul Jacobson has rescinded his retirement and plans to stay with the carrier as it struggles through the devastating impact of coronavirus on air travel. (better than leave the boat while it sinks..., Costa Concordia, anyone?)

El Al Israel Airlines said it is in advanced talks with an Israeli bank to receive a loan that will be partly backed by government guarantees.

Etihad was unable to provide a financial lifeline to Virgin Australia because of the pressures created by the pandemic on its own business, but it remains open for constructive discussions on a potential re-launch of the airline. (And Etihad let sink Air Berlin, Alitalia & Jet Airways...)

Flybondi has extended its flight suspension until 28 May 2020.

Hawaiian Airlines says it’s getting more than US$650 million in federal aid to keep operating, including $290 million in grants and loans to cover its payroll, and a low interest loan of $364 million for operations.

IndiGo closed all its bookings till 31 May 2020, shortly after the DGCA prevented all airlines from taking bookings till a final decision on lifting or easing restrictions on resuming air travel is announced.

Lufthansa Cargo is looking to extend the use of its MD11F fleet into 2021, as cargo demand remains high.

Luxair will suspend its operations for another four weeks until 30 May 2020.

Malaysia Airlines financials have deteriorated up to 94% since flight restrictions were imposed across most countries to curb the pandemic. The carrier plans to undertake a minimal flight network in the near-term.

Qatar Airways said mid-level employees and above will have their salaries halved for at least three months but that staff would be back paid when the airline could afford it.

Singapore Airlines has extended its flight cancellations until the end of May 2020 in response to the ongoing coronavirus crisis.

Spirit Airlines is close to receiving US$330 million as part of a massive federal aid program.

United Airlines expects to have the ability through 30 September 2020, under the CARES act, to borrow up to approximately US$4.5 billion from the US Treasury for a term of up to five years.

Wizz Air Holdings has received confirmation that it is an eligible issuer under the UK Government’s Covid Corporate Financing Facility.

ZIPAIR Tokyo applies for a foreign air carrier permit from the US, for flights from Japan and beyond. ZIPAIR has not yet rescheduled its initial launch date.

South Korea mulls purchasing corporate bonds via state-owned banks, in addition to providing guarantees to raise funds to support airlines amid the crisis. The government may set employment levels and ask for an option to acquire a stake in the airlines as a result.
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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

Post by SabenaForever »

It seems Avianca Cargo switcht its Europe flights to AMS... on Flightradar24 I can not find Brussels flights. Anybody has more information?

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Re: Impact of the coronavirus crisis on aviation

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Daily review:

Air Burkina says it’s in a liquidity crisis due to “very high fixed costs”, and is asking staff to make sacrifices as operations will not return until July 2020. Survival is not guaranteed, says the CEO Blaise Sanou.

Air Canada announced that it will suspend scheduled service to the US after 26 April 2020 as a result of the agreement between the governments of Canada and the US to extend border restrictions by an additional 30 days.

Air Caraibes announced the resumption of inter-island flights on 16 May 2020.

Air France-KLM is moving towards a €10 billion government-backed rescue deal, after France agreed to 90% guarantees on loans designed to tide the airline group through the crisis.

AirAsia Indonesia to extend the suspension of flights to 18 May 2020.

Copa Airlines to now extend the suspension of all international operations until 22 May 2020.

Easyfly projects losses of more than US$7.5 million by end of April 2020, due to the pandemic. The carrier has already cut routes and frequencies as well as cut employees and suspended aircraft purchases.

Emirates doesn’t plan on resuming its regularly scheduled flights until at least July 2020.

Ethiopian Airlines is ramping up cargo operations while seeking to defer lease payments on aircraft in effort to cope with the impact of the pandemic.

Helvetic Airways will not apply for state aid, says CEO Tobias Pogorevc, who admitted that fleet renewal and growth are postponed.

IndiGo is working with aircraft lessors for deferring lease rental payments by at least six months, as suspension of flight services is adversely impacting its financial position.

TAAG begins dismissing employees as it copes with the fallout from the crisis, while beginning the process to resume operations.

Tunisair must implement urgent measures in order to survive the pandemic, says Minister of Transport and Logistics, as the carrier lost around US$52 million in March-April 2020. Pre-crisis operations are expected to return by summer 2021.

US Treasury Department had disbursed US$2.9 billion in initial payroll assistance to 54 smaller passenger carrier and two major passenger airlines, while it finalized grant agreements with six major airlines.
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