Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

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Re: Crash Ukraine Airlines PS-752 Teheran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by TLspotting »

Swiss and KLM don't fly more above Iran or Iraq.
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Re: Crash Ukraine Airlines PS-752 Teheran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

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Wizz Air Budapest - Dubai Al Maktoum and Bucharest Otopeni - Dubai Al Maktoum routes make a stop at Larnaca, due to a rerouting via Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
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Re: Crash Ukraine Airlines PS-752 Teheran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

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Statement by Canadian PM Trudeau: https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/ukra ... h-in-iran/
Last edited by sn26567 on 08 Jan 2020, 22:38, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: added link
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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by sn26567 »

ASN Press Statement
January 8, 2020
Tehran Boeing 737-800 accident


The Aviation Safety Network has learned that a Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800 aircraft has crashed near Tehran, Iran on January 8, 2020 (full details on the ASN website).

Based on preliminary information, we have established the following facts:


- The aircraft involved was a Boeing 737-800, first flight: 21 June 2016
- The aircraft operated a round trip (Ukraine International Airlines flight PS751/752) from Kyiv, Ukraine to Tehran and back
- The airline has passed the IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) benchmark for global safety management
- The aircraft arrived on time (21:27 UTC, Jan. 7) and departed with a delay of one hour (02:42 UTC, Jan. 8)
- Weather was fine with no clouds
- ADS-B data stopped three minutes after takeoff
- The aircraft impacted the ground and disintegrated about 8 minutes after takeoff

All 167 passengers and nine crew members were killed. This makes the accident the:
- worst accident involving a Boeing 737-800
- second worst accident involving a Boeing 737 (all series)
- third worst accident in Iran
- 42nd worst accident in aviation history
- worst accident involving a Ukrainian aircraft

Rumors and speculations

1) Quotes are circulating that an Iranian official reportedly stated that Iran is 'refusing to hand over the Black Box to Boeing'.
ASN Comment: Per international (ICAO) agreements Iran is responsible for the investigation since the accident happened in that country and therefore for the process to decode and analyze the voice and data recorder information. Black boxes are never 'handed over' to a manufacturer.

2) It is reported that there was no distress message from the flight, suggesting the aircraft may have been shot down
ASN Comment: This by itself does not prove anything. In case of an in-flight emergency, flight crew are taught to aviate, navigate, communicate in that order. Maintaining control over the aircraft and navigating towards an airport are prioritized over making radio calls.

3) There is speculation that the aircraft was shot down
ASN Comment
: It is too soon to speculate on the cause of the accident. The investigation has only just started and there are too many uncertainties to draw any conclusions on what caused the accident.
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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by Homo Aeroportus »

Flight path per FR24. Similar to previous UIA flights up until near the end where the data stopped being transmitted (green line and dot), 3 minutes after take-off.
The red circle marks the crash site which is about 16km in a straight line from the last XPDR transmission.
IKA airport in the bottom right.

UIA Crash Aerial large (3).jpg


Crash zone below. Debris scattered along +400m. Coming apparently from the NNW, heading about 160° in a possible attempt to return (if the flight was still under control).
From top to bottom : the octagonal pavement (yellow line), the football pitch (pink line), the canal (white line), and further south the walled parcel with one rounded corner (blue line).
In the lower left corner of the GE pic is the water tower (blue circle) that appears on several photos further down. It is about 200 meters from the crash site axis.

UIA Crash Site (3).jpg


The Iranian News Agency has published numerous photos, some are harsh :
https://www.isna.ir/amp/98101813851/?__ ... ssion=true



First (visible) contact with ground, looking SSE. Octagonal pavement and football field.
Note the narrow opening in its wall.
61535549.jpg

From reverse angle :

61535957.jpg

End of the crash path, looking towards NNW. Note the vertical stabilizer in the centre left of the photo, at the border between green and brown soil. This point supposedly marks the front end of the crash zone in the direction of travel. The aircraft is disintegrated but the VS has “flown” forwards ending in front of all the other debris?
And what do you make of this myriad of debris? High energy impact or disintegration in flight?

61535550.jpg

I’m puzzled by one thing.
The transponder data abruptly ceases being received just after the moment the flight path went slightly right of the normal course, but without marked disruption in both altitude (climbing) and speed prior to that.
At that point the altitude reported was 7925ft. Field elevation is 1000m or 3300ft, so they were 4600ft/1400m AGL and no obstruction. It must have taken at least 3 minutes to reverse course and crash where she did,

I don’t know how the XPDR is powered on a 73, (from the bus supplied by the generator on engine 1 or 2 ?), but I seem to remember that on an A32S, even if you lose one engine or at least that its IDG drops off, the Tie Bus Contactor automatically activates and the other engine will supply immediately both Bus 1 and 2. I guess it is the same on Boeings, no?
So what may have caused the transponder to suddenly stop transmitting?

Sad start of the year.

H.A.

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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by TLspotting »

First conclusions of the Ukrainian experts say that there's no trace of engine fire (exactly the opposite of what "Western intelligence agencies" told Reuters, which prefer the an engine overheat theory).
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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by jan_olieslagers »

So what may have caused the transponder to suddenly stop transmitting?
I cannot know, and I dislike speculation, but to answer the question as asked, one possible reply might be that it was switched off.

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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by TLspotting »

There's another theory. The one of the missile. A part of a missile has been found next to aircraft's debris. Many people are identifying it as "SA15" missile.

Newsweek citing US and Iraqi sources say that the aircraft has been shot down (probably by mistake).
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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by sn26567 »

The missile theory indeed is more and more prevalent. CBS News says that US officials are confident Ukrainian Flight 752 was shot down by Iran. US intelligence picked up signals of the radar being turned on & satellite detected infrared blips of 2 missile launches, probably SA-15s, followed shortly by another infrared blip of an explosion.
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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by sn26567 »

Iran has invited foreign investigators to assist.

The Iranians, through the International Civil Aviation Organization, invited the National Transportation Safety Board of the United States to assist in the investigation despite previous reports that the Americans would not be involved, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke to The New York Times on the condition of anonymity.

In other news, Ukraine International Airlines will face a safety audit by the State Aviation Service of Ukraine, following a B737-800 crash in Tehran. This would be excessive if the crash was caused by a missile.
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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by TLspotting »

TLspotting wrote:
08 Jan 2020, 20:48
There's a new footage. Exactly 4 seconds before impact, there's (on both videos) the brightness, which is really increasing.
New footage :
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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

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Canadian PM Trudeau is following the same theory than the Americans, that the aircraft has been shot down. Americans say that there were 2 SA-15 missiles (surface to air).

New footage seems to be real, with people finding video's location, matching with the aircraft route between the final ADSB signal and the crash location.
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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by Passenger »

Official ICAO press release, August 2018: Which State or States are responsible for conducting an accident investigation, and what other States may participate?

Annex 13 stipulates that the State of Occurrence shall institute an investigation into the circumstances of the accident and be responsible for the conduct of the investigation. The State of Occurrence may also delegate all or part of the investigation’s responsibilities to another State, or to a regional accident and incident investigation organization. Besides the State of Occurrence, Annex 13 also identifies the additional States which are entitled to appoint an accredited representative (with or without associated advisers) to take part in an investigation. These include:
The State of Registry.
The State on whose register the aircraft is entered.
The State of the Operator.
The State in which the operator’s principal place of business is located or, if there is no such place of business, the operator’s permanent residence.
The State of Design.
The State having jurisdiction over the company responsible for the aircraft type design.
The State of Manufacture.
The State having jurisdiction over the company responsible for the final assembly of the aircraft.

Additionally, a State which has a special interest in an accident, for example by virtue of the number of its citizens involved in or impacted by it, is also entitled to appoint an expert to the accident investigation. These special interest State experts are entitled to:
- visit the scene of the accident;
- have access to the factual information released by the State in charge;
- receive a copy of the accident investigation Final Report.

ICAO short press statement on PS-752:
https://www.icao.int/Newsroom/Pages/Off ... ident.aspx
Source for above list:
https://www.icao.int/Newsroom/NewsDoc20 ... -05.EN.pdf

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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by sn26567 »

A video verified by The New York Times appears to show a missile hitting a plane near Tehran airport around the time and place a Ukrainian jet crashed.

A small explosion occurred when a missile hit the plane, but the plane did not explode, the video shows. The jet continued flying for several minutes and turned back toward the airport, The Times has determined.
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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by Airbus330lover »

wait and see

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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by TLspotting »

sn26567 wrote:
09 Jan 2020, 21:44
A video verified by The New York Times appears to show a missile hitting a plane near Tehran airport around the time and place a Ukrainian jet crashed.

A small explosion occurred when a missile hit the plane, but the plane did not explode, the video shows. The jet continued flying for several minutes and turned back toward the airport, The Times has determined.
The footage I already shared earlier has been also verified by a small independent team, if flight data and video matched, and yes they match.

Thread of their work :
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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by TLspotting »

Lufthansa flight from Frankfurt to Tehran turned back above Romania shortly after American announcement.
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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by Homo Aeroportus »

I checked the FR24 data for the same flight PS752 of these last days.

There is a fair consistency between all these flights. Nothing pointing towards anything specific to the flight on 08JAN leading to the crash.

Flight Path. Lat-Long coordinates no to scale.
PS752 Flight Path Coord.png

Consistent with the PAROT 3G SID.
OIIE IKA  SID.jpeg

Climb profile is also similar to the one of the previous 3 flights.
At 02 min 24 sec after T.O., the last 3 flights are remarkably at the same altitude, within the accuracy of the data collected by FR24.
PS752 Altitude.png

Ground speed :
PS752 Gnd Speed.png

So nothing apparently wrong with the accident flight.
Until all data are lost abruptly. And this at a point that now seems to be compatible with the location of an intense flash just reported.

An explosion, whether from inside the plane or delivered by a SAM seems plausible.

H.A.

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Re: Crash Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Tehran-Kiev UR-PSR (08/01/2020)

Post by convair »

(fwiw) On BBC1 Question Time program earlier tonight, the Security Minister Brandon Lewis said the UK government has gathered information that the plane was downed by a missile fired, possibly by mistake, by the Iranians.

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