Brussels Airlines in 2020

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Conti764
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

Shonix wrote: 23 Jun 2020, 10:58
Passenger wrote: 21 Jun 2020, 20:21
Shonix wrote: 21 Jun 2020, 19:30 Opinion in La Libre Belgique mainly from some Belgian universities’ researchers: ‘Nationalizing Brussels Airlines is the only choice for the futuré

In French only:
https://www.lalibre.be/debats/opinions/ ... 1bd09d5591
We already had this story a few weeks ago, when the same people published their manifesto in a Flemish newspaper. Their motivation has nothing do with corona, with economics, with Brussels Airlines and/or with Brussels Airport. I have googeled all of the signers. They vary from utopia dreamers to ecologic fundamentalists. Common interest: we hate aviation.

Most of them are very young – many were still university student till just a few months ago.

One of them published an open letter in a Flemish newspaper on 13th January 2020: “any publicity for meat, for cars and for holiday trips should be forbitten”.

One of them tries to re-write the Economics university education because it's focussed too much on... economics, and too little on ecology.

One of them even refuses to use a car: “I only use public transport. Or I walk”.

One of them is a young historian specializing in 12th century urbanization at Bruges.

I abstain from describing the others because I then have to mention political parties.

Their proposal to nationalize both Brussels Airlines and Brussels Airport is not the result of economical, rational thinking. It is surrealistic and ridiculous. Extraterrestrial thinking. Their next demand will be “the airport may open for business Mon-Fri 09h-16h”.
Indeed, it's important to further investigate who these authors are. After a quick check I noticed that the majority was quite young and did not notice any aviation background.

However, discussing about nationalizing Brussels Airlines cannot be described as an "extraterrestrial thinking". It's an option to consider and worth to discuss on given the current circumstances.
Like Atlantis said earlier in this topic: there should be (and I hope there is) a plan A, B, C,...

Nationalizing Brussels Airlines might be an option if, and only if, it comes with retaining the advantages SN got when it got acquired by LH back in 2009, especially alliance membership.

Preferably, LH and the Belgian state reach an agreement and things can proceed as they were supposed to. Plan A.

Plan B should be taking SN off LH's hands, but continuing with the company in its current form.

Plan C should be SN quiting the LH Group, but with a solid engagement from another alliance (preferably Oneworld) for SN to join.

In the latter two cases the government can keep the redundant SN staff on (partial) unemployment, rebuilding its short and medium haul network and gradually add long haul equipment (which might be quite cheap since airlines massiverly scaling down) to build up long haul whenever possible. Given the changing aviation after Covid, they'd have to reorientate SN towards a more classic full service airline.

Flanker2
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Flanker2 »

Conti764 wrote: 23 Jun 2020, 14:35
Shonix wrote: 23 Jun 2020, 10:58
Passenger wrote: 21 Jun 2020, 20:21 We already had this story a few weeks ago, when the same people published their manifesto in a Flemish newspaper. Their motivation has nothing do with corona, with economics, with Brussels Airlines and/or with Brussels Airport. I have googeled all of the signers. They vary from utopia dreamers to ecologic fundamentalists. Common interest: we hate aviation.

Most of them are very young – many were still university student till just a few months ago.

One of them published an open letter in a Flemish newspaper on 13th January 2020: “any publicity for meat, for cars and for holiday trips should be forbitten”.

One of them tries to re-write the Economics university education because it's focussed too much on... economics, and too little on ecology.

One of them even refuses to use a car: “I only use public transport. Or I walk”.

One of them is a young historian specializing in 12th century urbanization at Bruges.

I abstain from describing the others because I then have to mention political parties.

Their proposal to nationalize both Brussels Airlines and Brussels Airport is not the result of economical, rational thinking. It is surrealistic and ridiculous. Extraterrestrial thinking. Their next demand will be “the airport may open for business Mon-Fri 09h-16h”.
Indeed, it's important to further investigate who these authors are. After a quick check I noticed that the majority was quite young and did not notice any aviation background.

However, discussing about nationalizing Brussels Airlines cannot be described as an "extraterrestrial thinking". It's an option to consider and worth to discuss on given the current circumstances.
Like Atlantis said earlier in this topic: there should be (and I hope there is) a plan A, B, C,...

Nationalizing Brussels Airlines might be an option if, and only if, it comes with retaining the advantages SN got when it got acquired by LH back in 2009, especially alliance membership.

Preferably, LH and the Belgian state reach an agreement and things can proceed as they were supposed to. Plan A.

Plan B should be taking SN off LH's hands, but continuing with the company in its current form.

Plan C should be SN quiting the LH Group, but with a solid engagement from another alliance (preferably Oneworld) for SN to join.

In the latter two cases the government can keep the redundant SN staff on (partial) unemployment, rebuilding its short and medium haul network and gradually add long haul equipment (which might be quite cheap since airlines massiverly scaling down) to build up long haul whenever possible. Given the changing aviation after Covid, they'd have to reorientate SN towards a more classic full service airline.
A. Can you explain why you think that it's preferable that LH and the Belgian State reach an agreement?
Do you really want more of the last 10 years, except worse?

B. SN is useless in its current form.

C. Alliances are hardly a priority when airlines in those alliances are going bankrupt one after the other.


Let's see if Mr. Thiele is just being a media whore or if he is really planning on making a profit off the liquidation of LH.

Flanker2
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Flanker2 »

Shonix wrote: 23 Jun 2020, 10:58
Passenger wrote: 21 Jun 2020, 20:21
Shonix wrote: 21 Jun 2020, 19:30 Opinion in La Libre Belgique mainly from some Belgian universities’ researchers: ‘Nationalizing Brussels Airlines is the only choice for the futuré

In French only:
https://www.lalibre.be/debats/opinions/ ... 1bd09d5591
We already had this story a few weeks ago, when the same people published their manifesto in a Flemish newspaper. Their motivation has nothing do with corona, with economics, with Brussels Airlines and/or with Brussels Airport. I have googeled all of the signers. They vary from utopia dreamers to ecologic fundamentalists. Common interest: we hate aviation.

Most of them are very young – many were still university student till just a few months ago.

One of them published an open letter in a Flemish newspaper on 13th January 2020: “any publicity for meat, for cars and for holiday trips should be forbitten”.

One of them tries to re-write the Economics university education because it's focussed too much on... economics, and too little on ecology.

One of them even refuses to use a car: “I only use public transport. Or I walk”.

One of them is a young historian specializing in 12th century urbanization at Bruges.

I abstain from describing the others because I then have to mention political parties.

Their proposal to nationalize both Brussels Airlines and Brussels Airport is not the result of economical, rational thinking. It is surrealistic and ridiculous. Extraterrestrial thinking. Their next demand will be “the airport may open for business Mon-Fri 09h-16h”.
Indeed, it's important to further investigate who these authors are. After a quick check I noticed that the majority was quite young and did not notice any aviation background.

However, discussing about nationalizing Brussels Airlines cannot be described as an "extraterrestrial thinking". It's an option to consider and worth to discuss on given the current circumstances.

Lufthansa's PR guys want to destroy the credibility of the pro-nationalization people, what a surprise.
I haven't read the article in depth, but in the broad lines it is similar to what I'm suggesting.
Personally, it's not relevant to me what the background of those people is, nor am I interested in their point of view because in a few months, all airlines will be either bankrupt of nationalized, whether me, you and anyone else like it or not.

I'm genuinely crossing my fingers for you guys at Lufthansa for this Thursday.
You did such a good job influencing people on this forum, for that you deserve an applause of respect.
I don't mean this sarcastically, I could never put so much energy into doing my job as you guys are doing and certainly not for the measly pay at Lufthansa. What makes you get out of your bed in the morning and check this forum? Do share with us where you find the motivation.

Not to worry though, even if Thiele isn't just playing media whore and ends up liquidating LH, Merkel will do something about it.
Lufthansa won't disappear.

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Conti764
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

Flanker2 wrote: 23 Jun 2020, 15:29 A. Can you explain why you think that it's preferable that LH and the Belgian State reach an agreement?
Do you really want more of the last 10 years, except worse?
Because I think in times when your country is being hit by the biggest crisis since the Great Depression, the government shouldn't venture in establishing an airline on its own, unless they are left no choice.

I don't want more of the past ten years, the unsustainable growth Gustin and co set SN on have proven to be a mistake. I'd like SN to scale down to a more reasonable size and a more reasonable approach.

Since LH acquired SN, the latter has faced some major issues. The merger with VEX din't go very smooth, we've had the banking crisis and it's fallout, the Ebola outbreak in Western Africa, the March 22 attacks and now Covid...

I am convinced that with a scaled back operation à without external issues SN could reach its targets.
B. SN is useless in its current form.
I may not have been very clear. With 'current form' I mean SN as the brand name of SN Airholding as opposed to the people who seemingly want to make SN a small regional carrier with some long haul. I want SN to be more aligned as a full service network carrier iso hybrid carrier they are today, and as a member of Star Alliance.
C. Alliances are hardly a priority when airlines in those alliances are going bankrupt one after the other.
Like which? Most major airlines are being bailed out by their respective governments.

If indeed there would be a major bloodbath in aviation, virtually setting aviation back 50 years into time you'd have more options. But there are no signs such is going to happen. Meanwhile, in order to be relevant and to survive, SN needs an alliance.

Passenger
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Passenger »

As expected: the simple fact that some people demand the nationalization of Brussels Airlines, is enough for the usual SN-bashers to go loose.

Sure, everyone is allowed to discuss football, cycling, politics, triathlon, modern cuisine, bagpipes, aviation, whatever. But if one does this in two newspapers and if one then uses an academic profession, one should at least have the honesty to add his/her academic grade or speciality. And they do not: they want to show their political proposal as being the result of an academic study. Copy/paste: "...Une carte blanche de Olivier Malay (UCLouvain), Mathieu Strale (ULB), Sacha Dierckx (think tank Minerva), Tim Christiaens (KUL), Jonas Van der Slycken (UGent), Anne-Sophie Bouvy (UCLouvain), Wojciech Kębłowski (VUB)..."

They don't give their academical specialisation because it would then become clear none of them is an aviation specialist. In commercial affairs, one would call this practice misleading. In press: desinformation = withhold relevant information.

Forum rules don't allow to go into detail of their political view, but if one google the above names, it will become clear what their aim is. Repeat: one of them want a ban on publicity for fly holidays. But yet they're applauded here...

crew1990
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by crew1990 »

Passenger wrote: 23 Jun 2020, 16:05 As expected: the simple fact that some people demand the nationalization of Brussels Airlines, is enough for the usual SN-bashers to go loose.

Sure, everyone is allowed to discuss football, cycling, politics, triathlon, modern cuisine, bagpipes, aviation, whatever. But if one does this in two newspapers and if one then uses an academic profession, one should at least have the honesty to add his/her academic grade or speciality. And they do not: they want to show their political proposal as being the result of an academic study. Copy/paste: "...Une carte blanche de Olivier Malay (UCLouvain), Mathieu Strale (ULB), Sacha Dierckx (think tank Minerva), Tim Christiaens (KUL), Jonas Van der Slycken (UGent), Anne-Sophie Bouvy (UCLouvain), Wojciech Kębłowski (VUB)..."

They don't give their academical specialisation because it would then become clear none of them is an aviation specialist. In commercial affairs, one would call this practice misleading. In press: desinformation = withhold relevant information.

Forum rules don't allow to go into detail of their political view, but if one google the above names, it will become clear what their aim is. Repeat: one of them want a ban on publicity for fly holidays. But yet they're applauded here...
They are not applauded, they are given the right to share their opinion like you are doing too. And once again, no need to be an aviation specialist to give a opinion. This is even why forum like this exist.

LJ
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by LJ »

Flanker2 wrote: 23 Jun 2020, 15:45 Personally, it's not relevant to me what the background of those people is, nor am I interested in their point of view because in a few months, all airlines will be either bankrupt of nationalized, whether me, you and anyone else like it or not.
You'll be surprised how many airlines will cope with this (provided no serious second wave will come). Despite the doom we're hearing, things are actually going the right way (OK for airlines not belongng to the LH Group). Moreover, airlines (at least most of them) are adjusting their staff to the levels the need for the compmnig years and don't bleed as much as they previously did. I'm actually start to believe that there is light at the end of the tunnel, though that light doesn't mean 2019 traffic figures.

LJ
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by LJ »

Passenger wrote: 23 Jun 2020, 12:23On top, they not only demand nationalization of Brussels Airlines, but also nationalization of Brussels Airport. How much taxpayers' money we're gonna need to get the remaining 75%? Brussels Airport Company nv/sa: own assets 809M of which 640M invested capital, turnover/revenu 593M, average yearly profit last 4 years 67M. One needs an extraterrestrial calculator and a bunch of senior accountants to establish the nationalization cost.
It's not their job to look at the feasibility of a plan. In these kind of situations you've the visionairies (usually academics) which provide a vision, followed by the "bean counters" who run the numbers and present the decision makers the bill of the vision. Anyone can figure out that this vision is not cheap. However, it will be the politician who must figure out if the Belgian taxpayer is willing to pay the price for nationalization or not. I personally wouldn't be surprised if some civil servant already asked some economist to calculate how much nationalizing SN would cost the Belgian State (including some scenarios).

Flanker2
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Flanker2 »

Conti764 wrote: 23 Jun 2020, 15:56
Flanker2 wrote: 23 Jun 2020, 15:29 A. Can you explain why you think that it's preferable that LH and the Belgian State reach an agreement?
Do you really want more of the last 10 years, except worse?
Because I think in times when your country is being hit by the biggest crisis since the Great Depression, the government shouldn't venture in establishing an airline on its own, unless they are left no choice.

I don't want more of the past ten years, the unsustainable growth Gustin and co set SN on have proven to be a mistake. I'd like SN to scale down to a more reasonable size and a more reasonable approach.

Since LH acquired SN, the latter has faced some major issues. The merger with VEX din't go very smooth, we've had the banking crisis and it's fallout, the Ebola outbreak in Western Africa, the March 22 attacks and now Covid...

I am convinced that with a scaled back operation à without external issues SN could reach its targets.
B. SN is useless in its current form.
I may not have been very clear. With 'current form' I mean SN as the brand name of SN Airholding as opposed to the people who seemingly want to make SN a small regional carrier with some long haul. I want SN to be more aligned as a full service network carrier iso hybrid carrier they are today, and as a member of Star Alliance.
C. Alliances are hardly a priority when airlines in those alliances are going bankrupt one after the other.
Like which? Most major airlines are being bailed out by their respective governments.

If indeed there would be a major bloodbath in aviation, virtually setting aviation back 50 years into time you'd have more options. But there are no signs such is going to happen. Meanwhile, in order to be relevant and to survive, SN needs an alliance.
I disagree on some major points, but I can see where the disagreement originates.
Your prognose is much more optimistic than mine.
Mine is based on studying balance sheets, data points, earning reports of airlines and fundamental analysis.
Yours is based on a gut feeling and perhaps some anecdotal data?


Most airlines were facing pricing pressure and levelling traffic loads just before Covid-19.
Several airlines went bankrupt just before this crisis hit: Thomas Cook, Flybe, Air Italy, Air Malta (technically), WOW Air,
Most other airlines' profits were down, airlines stopped ordering new aircraft.
So imagine what happens when you pair an already challenging situation with a total loss of revenue.
Sure, they are generating revenues again now, but it's still significantly down and very unstable, as many people are also converting the abusive vouchers into trips.
On the revenue side, those vouchers show up as revenues, so on paper and on the loadsheet or pax manifest it looks like they are doing better after restarting, but in terms of cash flow airlines are actually burning cash at a faster and faster rate as they relaunch a strongly reduced operation.
July and August are already upon us and from September demand only goes downhill and we will have a huge unavoidable surge in Covid-19.

If you combine all of that, there is little reason to be as optimistic as you are.


I also agree with what Andre posted in a news item, ie I will be avoiding flying for a while.
It's just not responsible to be flying around right now.
Many people feel that way, so it's impossible to run a cash flow positive operation in this environment.


If we can't nationalize SN because of the economy, we certainly can't throw 400 millions into the wind for an airline that serves mainly leisures routes, sending Belgians abroad to spend their money there, hoping that it will keep jobs somehow by serving Lufthansa's agenda of maintaining control in BRU.
Downsizing already happened. Whether the government provides 400 millions or not, those jobs are not coming back anytime soon, if ever.


Your explanation for Plan B is contradicting your explanation for plan A.
You want to slim down SN but you don't want it to be a regional airline with some long haul.
Any amount of downsizing at SN from pre-covid would lead to becoming what you describe as a "regional with some long haul".

I would agree if we talk about reorgansing the network and fleet to be more focussed on long haul and feeding. Less A319/A320, more A330's.
Ideally, SN would move from a longhaul / shortaul ratio of 14/38 to 25/25, with the shorthaul fleet focussing on feeding 2 long haul banks instead of leisure routes. Leisure can still be serviced in a third bank.
But you and me know that more long haul ain't happening under the umbrella of Lufthansa.


Alliances are a secondary consideration to the current environment.
It's a nice to have item for the recovery, but not essential.
If you don't have an airline by Christmas, you can't be part of an alliance.
Bailouts are nice, but most of its in the form of debt against cash. If not by Christmas or by the summer of 2021, at the latest in 2022, that cash will be burned to cover ongoing losses. At that time, only the additional debt will remain.
You can then use your alliance contract to wipe off your tears.

Bailouts are not going to solve the fundamental problems of airlines, they are actually going to kick the problem down the road and make it even bigger.

nordikcam
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by nordikcam »

The Syndicates and the management of SN reach an agreement on a restructuring plan for the company ...

https://www.lalibre.be/economie/entrepr ... 6a59b80c86

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sn26567
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sn26567 »

nordikcam wrote: 24 Jun 2020, 17:30 The Syndicates and the management of SN reach an agreement on a restructuring plan for the company ...

https://www.lalibre.be/economie/entrepr ... 6a59b80c86
In English: https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/luft ... ructuring/
André
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Magiktrix
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Magiktrix »

Just a brief news on Reuters, no reason why. Heinz Hermann Thiele will vote for the proposal.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... SL8N2E15IK

Boavida
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Boavida »

So, recap of the day:

- deal at SN between management and syndicates
- Thiele will vote for rescue plan LH
- Belgian govt willing 'to do its part'

Looks like all the obstacles have been removed and Brussels Airlines will get its rescue plan. Right? Hope we'll see it tomorrow.


https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20200624_05000398

Passenger
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Passenger »

Magiktrix wrote: 24 Jun 2020, 20:09 Just a brief news on Reuters, no reason why. Heinz Hermann Thiele will vote for the proposal.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... SL8N2E15IK
... and he's thankfull to the Aviation24.be-pessimists and the main stream media for predicting the Lufthansa bankruptcy. As a result, the LH share dropped, allowing Thiele to increase his LH-shares from 15% to ??? Some German newssites reported he intends to have 30%. Just one example: few days ago Thiele has sold for €700M of his Knorr-Bremse shares, to use that money to buy LH shares.

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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sn26567 »

Magiktrix wrote: 24 Jun 2020, 20:09 Just brief news on Reuters, no reason why. Heinz Hermann Thiele will vote for the proposal.
What did he get in return? Such people don't change minds without a good reason.
André
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Flanker2
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Flanker2 »

Boavida wrote: 24 Jun 2020, 20:25 So, recap of the day:

- deal at SN between management and syndicates
- Thiele will vote for rescue plan LH
- Belgian govt willing 'to do its part'

Looks like all the obstacles have been removed and Brussels Airlines will get its rescue plan. Right? Hope we'll see it tomorrow.


https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20200624_05000398
The Belgian government doesn't need to do anything if the German government gives them the money.
If the German taxpayer wants to rescue a Belgian subsidiary of a German multinational, fine by me.
But there's no way my taxes are going to be used to prop up a German company that flies Belgians to Malaga and Porto in the middle of the worst economic crisis for the nation, while Belgian businesses are starting to go bankrupt one after the other.

Also, if SN is getting money from Germany, can we finally expect to get our refunds instead of the illegal vouchers?

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sn26567
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sn26567 »

Flanker2 wrote: 24 Jun 2020, 21:14 But there's no way my taxes are going to be used to prop up a German company that flies Belgians to Malaga and Porto in the middle of the worst economic crisis for the nation, while Belgian businesses are starting to go bankrupt one after the other.
And how will you prevent the Ministry of Finance to bail out Brussels Airlines with your tax money?
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Homo Aeroportus »

sn26567 wrote: 24 Jun 2020, 20:50
Magiktrix wrote: 24 Jun 2020, 20:09 Just brief news on Reuters, no reason why. Heinz Hermann Thiele will vote for the proposal.
What did he get in return? Such people don't change minds without a good reason.
Did Thiele really changed his mind?
One week ago LHAG share traded at 10.50, today closed at 8.96.
Rumours about possible rejection of State aid lately. Did Herr Thiele buy additional shares recently?

Welcome to the Sillyconomy where the shareholder don't give a damn about the company nor is interested in its future for as long as he can sell in time.

H.A.

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Conti764
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

Passenger wrote: 24 Jun 2020, 20:30
Magiktrix wrote: 24 Jun 2020, 20:09 Just a brief news on Reuters, no reason why. Heinz Hermann Thiele will vote for the proposal.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... SL8N2E15IK
... and he's thankfull to the Aviation24.be-pessimists and the main stream media for predicting the Lufthansa bankruptcy. As a result, the LH share dropped, allowing Thiele to increase his LH-shares from 15% to ??? Some German newssites reported he intends to have 30%. Just one example: few days ago Thiele has sold for €700M of his Knorr-Bremse shares, to use that money to buy LH shares.
And here we go again... :roll:

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sn26567
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sn26567 »

Homo Aeroportus wrote: 24 Jun 2020, 21:43 Did Herr Thiele buy additional shares recently?
Before March he had less than the 3% level which triggers a compulsory notification. Since mid-June, he has 15.52%. He purchased at between 9 and 11 euros a share.

Story: https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/luft ... pprove-it/
André
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