Brussels Airlines in 2020

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airlittoral
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by airlittoral »

Boavida wrote: 13 Apr 2020, 01:13
I have my (serious) doubts, as SN was never treated on equal footing by LH (as LX or OS)...

Basically they only care for LX and to a lesser extent OS (as they're German speaking 'brothers'). SN was always treated as the unwanted child.

I really hope they prove me wrong this time. Otherwise, SN could look for a more welcoming and engaging Airline Group.
I have to disagree with that. SN had equal chances in the beginning but Bernard -I know better- Gustin wanted LHG to adapt to SN and not the other way around. LHG wanted us to align... Gustin consistently refused explaining we knew better and we would be better off with his strategy. This position ruined the relationship and set SN de facto apart in the group. While others were pointing in the same direction, SN wanted to show another way.... time to pay this bill?

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Conti764
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

airlittoral wrote: 13 Apr 2020, 09:12
Boavida wrote: 13 Apr 2020, 01:13
I have my (serious) doubts, as SN was never treated on equal footing by LH (as LX or OS)...

Basically they only care for LX and to a lesser extent OS (as they're German speaking 'brothers'). SN was always treated as the unwanted child.

I really hope they prove me wrong this time. Otherwise, SN could look for a more welcoming and engaging Airline Group.
I have to disagree with that. SN had equal chances in the beginning but Bernard -I know better- Gustin wanted LHG to adapt to SN and not the other way around. LHG wanted us to align... Gustin consistently refused explaining we knew better and we would be better off with his strategy. This position ruined the relationship and set SN de facto apart in the group. While others were pointing in the same direction, SN wanted to show another way.... time to pay this bill?
Could be but why did Gustin get sacked years after when disagreeing with LH and not at a moment SN could have send in the right direction?

If LH did have concrete plans for SN to have them at OS' level back then, why nit sack Gusting sooner and have him replaced with a more suitable CEO? It could have saved LH alot of money

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Conti764
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

737MAX wrote: 13 Apr 2020, 08:13
Conti764 wrote: 11 Apr 2020, 21:02
Boavida wrote: 11 Apr 2020, 19:38

I see "letting SN die" as the worst case scenario, but indeed, IF it happens and a new company must be created with Belgian state and private funds... why not investing this in Air Belgium?

It already exists (so no startup costs, waiting for an AOC,...) ànd has the perfect name. It could replace SN in BRU as the new flag carrier.
With very inefficient four engine aircraft? Will they even consider switching CRL for the much more expensive BRU?

The only advantage I see is you might get some good rates on leasing A330's due to the expected dumping of aircraft, but then again airlines will first dump older machines.

If, and that's a big if such scenario (a new flag carrier) being it AB or a completely new project is going to happen, I hope they'll look for ties with and a future membership of Oneworld.
Some airlines sometimes decide to get rid of new(er) planes which are more expensive.
I don't know what kind of contract Air Belgium has for the leasing of their A340, but seen the price of the fuel today I guess switching to a more expensive A330 wouldn't make sense?
Fuel doesn't stay dirt cheap. You are right though that leasing rates on fairly recent A340's should be quote low now.
As for Air Belgium becoming the new "main" carrier, I personally don't see that happening. They have the name, but.... politics? :?
Me neither. Although having Air Belgium as flag carrier from CRL might be a wet dream for some...

sean1982
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sean1982 »

Conti764 wrote: 13 Apr 2020, 11:38
737MAX wrote: 13 Apr 2020, 08:13
Conti764 wrote: 11 Apr 2020, 21:02

With very inefficient four engine aircraft? Will they even consider switching CRL for the much more expensive BRU?

The only advantage I see is you might get some good rates on leasing A330's due to the expected dumping of aircraft, but then again airlines will first dump older machines.

If, and that's a big if such scenario (a new flag carrier) being it AB or a completely new project is going to happen, I hope they'll look for ties with and a future membership of Oneworld.
Some airlines sometimes decide to get rid of new(er) planes which are more expensive.
I don't know what kind of contract Air Belgium has for the leasing of their A340, but seen the price of the fuel today I guess switching to a more expensive A330 wouldn't make sense?
Fuel doesn't stay dirt cheap. You are right though that leasing rates on fairly recent A340's should be quote low now.
As for Air Belgium becoming the new "main" carrier, I personally don't see that happening. They have the name, but.... politics? :?
Me neither. Although having Air Belgium as flag carrier from CRL might be a wet dream for some...
Why not a Birdy style integration with SN? AB staff is a lot cheaper then SN staff. Integrate the A340’s with SN. Dump the most expensive A330’s there and move the cheaper ones in to AB fleet. AB does the longhaul (a lot cheaper) and SN does the short haul business destinations and drop the R&D traffic. And you save two Belgian companies

oldblueeyes
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by oldblueeyes »

Boavida wrote: 13 Apr 2020, 01:13
Ansett wrote: 12 Apr 2020, 18:55 Then, let's see what LH does with the other members of the Group. Will SN be treated on equal footing ? That's the main question.
I have my (serious) doubts, as SN was never treated on equal footing by LH (as LX or OS)...

Basically they only care for LX and to a lesser extent OS (as they're German speaking 'brothers'). SN was always treated as the unwanted child.

I really hope they prove me wrong this time. Otherwise, SN could look for a more welcoming and engaging Airline Group.
What do you mean with "never"?
Lufthansa was until the full take over a large, but minority shareholer. And before the call rights for the remaining shares were activated the 4 Belgian members of the supervisory board had veto rights. These veto rights were removed 2017.

So from one hand Lufthansa had an indirect interest that the valuation for the remaining shares is low - why to correct local failure before a full take over? From another hand, if former group of local shareholders had a majority and veto rights, why should one put the same effort as in a 100%subisdiary?

As strange as it could look, given the purchase rights situation Lufthansa had, it was in their interest to let the local management fail.

Once the full take over was executed, situation changed - thus also the tensions between Gustin and Lufthansa for 1,5 years - from one hand Lufthansa sponsored the long haul fleet renewal and offered the chance to coordinate the budget long haul franchise within the group but knew that local management was worth the little money they paid for the remaining shares; from another hand the local management had still the hubris of local power but lacked veto rights of co-nationals and failed to deliver hard figures, once the commercial coordination of the 4 DUS aircraft and 7 Eurowings Long Haul planes were given to them.

Just one another thing. As the C-Series were ordered, the internal idea was to allocated the second batch of the to Brussels were they could have been a perfect fit. It was not Lufthansas' failure that the numbers delivered by local management were not enough to renew the fleet radically.

Just to compare performances, AIr Baltic delivered last year a profit of 124 Mio EUR, at a somehow similar company size and even without a long haul division-https://www.aerotelegraph.com/interview ... ter-kommen

So there is a lot to be improved locally, before blaming others.

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cathay belgium
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by cathay belgium »

Hi,

Make plans for the next SN is nice but some get to forget one thing....

Planes, crew,staff, slots , everything belongs to LH.

If they decide to shut down SN and place some cheap EW planes here to keep the profitable routes going and just dump the rest...
They keep their backgarden clean and prevent growing a eventual threat here ...
Who will start a new company here ???

Belgische BA, KLM BE,...

Maybe LH won't invest more money now, but why wouldn't they keep the few eggs which do make money ?

LH as all the cards, the Belgium government gave it for almost nothing to them...
Don't expect LH is that dumb to give it back for free !

CXB
New types flown 2020 : A321neo,B781

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Atlantis
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Atlantis »

cathay belgium wrote: 13 Apr 2020, 13:19 Hi,

Make plans for the next SN is nice but some get to forget one thing....

Planes, crew,staff, slots , everything belongs to LH.

If they decide to shut down SN and place some cheap EW planes here to keep the profitable routes going and just dump the rest...
They keep their backgarden clean and prevent growing a eventual threat here ...
Who will start a new company here ???

Belgische BA, KLM BE,...

Maybe LH won't invest more money now, but why wouldn't they keep the few eggs which do make money ?

LH as all the cards, the Belgium government gave it for almost nothing to them...
Don't expect LH is that dumb to give it back for free !

CXB
Exactly, SN is not the standalone now like it was during SN Brussels Airlines.

And second, why would you think that Air Belgium would be interested in this integration? They where flying to completely new destinations which were not available from Belgium before. An other one was going to be announced. I think they were on the good way with those destinations. Integration witn SN would be the same old long haul destinations.
Air Belgium proved that there is/was a demand for such exotic destinations.

I would rather say, let them work together with TUI as they are both flying on leisure holidays

sean1982
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sean1982 »

Atlantis wrote: 13 Apr 2020, 13:26
cathay belgium wrote: 13 Apr 2020, 13:19 Hi,

Make plans for the next SN is nice but some get to forget one thing....

Planes, crew,staff, slots , everything belongs to LH.

If they decide to shut down SN and place some cheap EW planes here to keep the profitable routes going and just dump the rest...
They keep their backgarden clean and prevent growing a eventual threat here ...
Who will start a new company here ???

Belgische BA, KLM BE,...

Maybe LH won't invest more money now, but why wouldn't they keep the few eggs which do make money ?

LH as all the cards, the Belgium government gave it for almost nothing to them...
Don't expect LH is that dumb to give it back for free !

CXB
Exactly, SN is not the standalone now like it was during SN Brussels Airlines.

And second, why would you think that Air Belgium would be interested in this integration? They where flying to completely new destinations which were not available from Belgium before. An other one was going to be announced. I think they were on the good way with those destinations. Integration witn SN would be the same old long haul destinations.
Air Belgium proved that there is/was a demand for such exotic destinations.

I would rather say, let them work together with TUI as they are both flying on leisure holidays
I was trying to think out of the box. I don’t think it’s a question of interest, rather a question of willingness to survive

Flanker3
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Flanker3 »

Atlantis wrote: 13 Apr 2020, 13:26
cathay belgium wrote: 13 Apr 2020, 13:19 Hi,

Make plans for the next SN is nice but some get to forget one thing....

Planes, crew,staff, slots , everything belongs to LH.

If they decide to shut down SN and place some cheap EW planes here to keep the profitable routes going and just dump the rest...
They keep their backgarden clean and prevent growing a eventual threat here ...
Who will start a new company here ???

Belgische BA, KLM BE,...

Maybe LH won't invest more money now, but why wouldn't they keep the few eggs which do make money ?

LH as all the cards, the Belgium government gave it for almost nothing to them...
Don't expect LH is that dumb to give it back for free !

CXB
Exactly, SN is not the standalone now like it was during SN Brussels Airlines.

And second, why would you think that Air Belgium would be interested in this integration? They where flying to completely new destinations which were not available from Belgium before. An other one was going to be announced. I think they were on the good way with those destinations. Integration witn SN would be the same old long haul destinations.
Air Belgium proved that there is/was a demand for such exotic destinations.

I would rather say, let them work together with TUI as they are both flying on leisure holidays
SN is not a standalone today, but it's pretty unavoidable that SN is going to find itself on its own pretty quickly. LH is begging Mutti Merkel for some bail-out loans. If that plan doesn't work out, Germany is going to end up owning a majority stake in LH. How do you run a state-run group that owns airlines abroad? Pretty sure SN will be cut off and served to the Belgian government so that they can do their own nationalisation.

Air Belgium did fly a few scheduled services for a few months, but they were unsuccessful, blaiming partners in China for not producing passenger numbers. So they haven't proven anything with regards to exotic destinations, they only proved that they had a pretty poor business plan.
In the meanwhile, they ave morphed into a charter airline and have done quite well in this capacity.
There, they proved that they had a pretty solid plan B for which they deserve credit, well handled.

With the charter market now gone, Air Belgium can't survive for long without state aid or a plan C.
We have to remember the cargo background of some of the executives, so their might be a potential for a plan C there considering the increased demand in air cargo as sea freight is grinding to a halt and the global food supply chain is at risk of collapse within a couple of months.


I think that an integration of Air Belgium with SN can be quite easy and straight-forward, but in that case, Air Belgium should be kept as a separate entity. A bit like what Citybird was to Sabena, but directly owned.
If TUI Belgium is also integrated, it can also come under such a brand together with Air Belgium,
This way they can run a parallel charter and cargo operation and a network airline.

However, going with something like Birdy would be a royal mistake.
An airline needs a network and mass to be successful, so half-measures won't work as 17 years of Brussels Airlines' constant struggling proves. Sabena struggled to make profits as a national airline, but Brussels Airlines was much uglier to watch with cost-cutting after cost-cutting, productivity increases, ownership drama's, abandoned projects (Korongo, 9W), distractions (VEX merger/LH ownership) and lack of investments.=
They will need a well-balanced fleet of around 100 aircraft, serving intercontinental destinations in Africa, Asia, the Americas, to the model of KLM and LX.
After an initial period as a national airline, the airline could be partially privatised. I can see the Bpost model working well in this process, rather than a straight sale to an airline group. Airline groups will come out of this crisis very weak and with ugly balance sheets, better to steer clear and prioritise strategic partnerships rather than ownership stakes where you have no control.

So either go all-in or let it die and see what the free market will come up with to fill the demand.
Ryanair's strong growth in Belgium in the 2003-2010 period is very much an example of the free market at work.

crew1990
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by crew1990 »

Flanker3 wrote: 16 Apr 2020, 02:00 They will need a well-balanced fleet of around 100 aircraft, serving intercontinental destinations in Africa, Asia, the Americas, to the model of KLM and LX.
In which world do you live? Demand is drastically decreasing and will take time to recover. Brussels Airlines have no money anymore and you are talking about double the fleet?

Poiu
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Poiu »

Flanker3 wrote: 16 Apr 2020, 02:00 A bit like what Citybird was to Sabena, but directly owned.

However, going with something like Birdy would be a royal mistake.
Both setups were almost identical in fact:
-Citybird damp-leased two MD11s to Sabena. (Sabena pilots seconded to Citybird and damp-leased back, Sabena cabin crew)
-Birdy used to damp lease 3 A330s to SNBA (Birdy Pilots, SNBA cabin crew)

brusselsairlinesfan
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by brusselsairlinesfan »

Breaking news :

Davignon quits / Smets in !

https://www.lecho.be/entreprises/aviati ... 21106.html

Flanker3
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Flanker3 »

Poiu wrote: 16 Apr 2020, 10:48
Flanker3 wrote: 16 Apr 2020, 02:00 A bit like what Citybird was to Sabena, but directly owned.

However, going with something like Birdy would be a royal mistake.
Both setups were almost identical in fact:
-Citybird damp-leased two MD11s to Sabena. (Sabena pilots seconded to Citybird and damp-leased back, Sabena cabin crew)
-Birdy used to damp lease 3 A330s to SNBA (Birdy Pilots, SNBA cabin crew)
Birdy was a very different setup than Citybird.
Birdy only had 1 customer: SNBA.
Citybird sold tickets directly and had its own brand, its own livery and was independent.

So IMO, if they merge Air Belgium into one nationalised airline holding, they should have two independent airlines. One that sells its own tickets as a network airline, and one that flies point to-point routes and independently for any customer airline.

Flanker3
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Flanker3 »

crew1990 wrote: 16 Apr 2020, 10:22
Flanker3 wrote: 16 Apr 2020, 02:00 They will need a well-balanced fleet of around 100 aircraft, serving intercontinental destinations in Africa, Asia, the Americas, to the model of KLM and LX.
In which world do you live? Demand is drastically decreasing and will take time to recover. Brussels Airlines have no money anymore and you are talking about double the fleet?
It's back to square 1, but the good thing is that this applies to everybody.
Perhaps bigger airlines will be saddled with more debt and 'lighter' airlines can easily expand into their markets where the (former) big entities will be sluggish to restart.
Some like you see this as the end of the world, some like me see this as an opportunity.

Will it happen? I doubt it.
Belgium will end up with another chronically sick airline unless we see some open minded people taking the lead. KLM and Swiss are evidence that a strong local airline not only is more likely to be self-sustaining and profitable, it has a major positive impact for the economy within 100km from its hub that very easily repays any taxpayer investment back.

crew1990
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by crew1990 »

Flanker3 wrote: 17 Apr 2020, 11:29
crew1990 wrote: 16 Apr 2020, 10:22

In which world do you live? Demand is drastically decreasing and will take time to recover. Brussels Airlines have no money anymore and you are talking about double the fleet?
It's back to square 1, but the good thing is that this applies to everybody.
Perhaps bigger airlines will be saddled with more debt and 'lighter' airlines can easily expand into their markets where the (former) big entities will be sluggish to restart.
Some like you see this as the end of the world, some like me see this as an opportunity.

Will it happen? I doubt it.
Belgium will end up with another chronically sick airline unless we see some open minded people taking the lead. KLM and Swiss are evidence that a strong local airline not only is more likely to be self-sustaining and profitable, it has a major positive impact for the economy within 100km from its hub that very easily repays any taxpayer investment back.
I'm not seeing it as the end of the world, I see it as an opportunity too, in my case the opportunity to go back to essentials and a economical model as sustainable as possible. Unfortunately, growth in a excessivness way like we had in the past decade is not the right thing anymore. Let's go back to reality.

theeuropean
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by theeuropean »

brusselsairlinesfan wrote: 16 Apr 2020, 23:54 Breaking news :

Davignon quits / Smets in !

https://www.lecho.be/entreprises/aviati ... 21106.html
Since I am not familiar with the 2 people, what does this mean for SN? Any change or is it just musical chairs with Christina going on the board?

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sn26567
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sn26567 »

theeuropean wrote: 17 Apr 2020, 13:42
brusselsairlinesfan wrote: 16 Apr 2020, 23:54 Breaking news :

Davignon quits / Smets in !

https://www.lecho.be/entreprises/aviati ... 21106.html
Since I am not familiar with the 2 people, what does this mean for SN? Any change or is it just musical chairs with Christina going on the board?
Not really breaking news, since we covered it on our homepage:

https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/luft ... irholding/

It will not mean a big change for SN, rather continuity, as Smets was in fact selected by Davignon himself.
André
ex Sabena #26567

Flanker3
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Flanker3 »

sn26567 wrote: 17 Apr 2020, 16:30
theeuropean wrote: 17 Apr 2020, 13:42
brusselsairlinesfan wrote: 16 Apr 2020, 23:54 Breaking news :

Davignon quits / Smets in !

https://www.lecho.be/entreprises/aviati ... 21106.html
Since I am not familiar with the 2 people, what does this mean for SN? Any change or is it just musical chairs with Christina going on the board?
Not really breaking news, since we covered it on our homepage:

https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/luft ... irholding/

It will not mean a big change for SN, rather continuity, as Smets was in fact selected by Davignon himself.

If Belgium bails out SN, it will be through funds from the National Bank, so I think that this appointment is not a coincidence.

Poiu
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Poiu »

Flanker3 wrote: 18 Apr 2020, 08:22

If Belgium bails out SN, it will be through funds from the National Bank, so I think that this appointment is not a coincidence.
Something must be brewing indeed, as the change was planned at the general meeting, planned in May, it’s a bit surprising it has been rushed through in the midst of an existential crisis.
Would the fact that Count D spoke, before his turn, to the press about Belgium bailing out SN for sure, be the reason?

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sn26567
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sn26567 »

Ansett wrote: 18 Apr 2020, 00:05
theeuropean wrote: 17 Apr 2020, 13:42
brusselsairlinesfan wrote: 16 Apr 2020, 23:54 Breaking news :

Davignon quits / Smets in !

https://www.lecho.be/entreprises/aviati ... 21106.html
Since I am not familiar with the 2 people, what does this mean for SN? Any change or is it just musical chairs with Christina going on the board?
Christina Foerster is now also a member of the Board of Directors of Swiss (LX).
Next step member of the Board of Directors of Austrian ?
And when CS leaves, CF as new LH CEO ! (?)
Christian Foerster IS already a member of the Board of OS.
André
ex Sabena #26567

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