Brussels Airlines in 2020

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rwandan-flyer
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by rwandan-flyer »

BA does fly to HEL. Did quite a few overnights there.
I just checked on British Airways website, for July 2020 and only Finnair flights are listed. I don't see BA on Helsinki Airport Wiki page.
Rwanda Aviation News (Drones, Air Force, Civil Aviation, Space, Air Balloon): https://www.facebook.com/RwandAn-Flyer-153177931456873

Poiu
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Poiu »

sean1982 wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 09:36
On another note. Davignon expects support from the state. Pre-liminary figure is 300 million EUR. LH is also at the table with the government. He is expecting to company to shrink 25-30% in order to survive.

My personal opinion: after the hostile take over from LH, I hope de government makes a hard deal here with LH. “Hun vel duur verkopen”. If they don’t, they risk handing 300 million EUR of Belgian taxpayers money to a company just to keep it afloat for a year, seeing they are losing 3million a day! Also I think 30% smaller is overoptimistic. I’m guessing 40-50% smaller.
One of Belgium’s leading economists, Geert Noels, is not impressed by the bailout, on Twitter he talks about throwing money away and LH conning the Belgian state a second time.

Inquirer
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Inquirer »

Poiu wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 10:24 One of Belgium’s leading economists, Geert Noels, is not impressed by the bailout, on Twitter he talks about throwing money away and LH conning the Belgian state a second time.
Woudn't it be better to wait for details of the deal before making comments as to whether it's a good idea?

At present all we know is that our government has decided to take action for them: the modalities are still completely unknow and as has been pointed out several times in the past, it does provide a rather unique opportunity to see Belgium gain back strategic influence all too easily lost in the past because of our national reluctance to defend vital economic players in our country, be it in the energy sector, the banking sector, the distribution sector or like here, the transportation sector.

FYI: Geert Noels is holding an MBA like tens of thousands of people in this country do (including myself) and is running a private investment fund; he's always very willing to opiniate rather negatively on all matters relating to the social-economic fabric of our country and is one of the prime advocates of the Chicago school of economics in Belgium, which luckily is just a fringe doctrine in continental Europe.
If Geert Noels would have been put in charge of handling of the fallout of the 2008 banking crisis in our country, there wouldn't be an economy to save from Corona right now. ;)
A few far better Belgian economists to look at for guidance are Prof. Dr. Koen Schoors or Prof. Dr. Paul De Grauwe, both chairs at reputated universities and with an in depth understanding of how our Rheinland economic model works, rather than living in an Anglo-Sakson economic dreamworld (at least to some: the model is often a true nightmare for most ordinary people not running hedge funds).
Oh, to link back to this website: Geert holds a Private Pilote License too, so Hi Geert!
If you read along: when are we going to go for a bike trip with Kris again? ;)

DeltaWiskey
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by DeltaWiskey »

Poiu wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 10:24 One of Belgium’s leading economists, Geert Noels, is not impressed by the bailout, on Twitter he talks about throwing money away and LH conning the Belgian state a second time.
Based on a non-informative article in de standaard? De beste stuurlui staan aan wal.

Haters gonna hate, that sums up this thread perfectly.

Almost all European Airlines are receiving state support in one way or another in this unprecedented crisis. Some are in a much worse shape than Brussels Airlines, like Alitalia or Norwegian. Some are in much better shape, like Finnair, KLM. Let's also not forget that Brussels Airlines posted a profit in 2015, 2016, 2017 & 2018. That's in 4 our of the last 5 consecutive years. Figures for January and February 2020 were also much better that last year. Does it really matter what SN's financial state was 10 or 15 years ago?

Poiu
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Poiu »

DeltaWiskey wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 11:18
Poiu wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 10:24 One of Belgium’s leading economists, Geert Noels, is not impressed by the bailout, on Twitter he talks about throwing money away and LH conning the Belgian state a second time.
Based on a non-informative article in de standaard? De beste stuurlui staan aan wal.

Haters gonna hate, that sums up this thread perfectly.

Almost all European Airlines are receiving state support in one way or another in this unprecedented crisis. Some are in a much worse shape than Brussels Airlines, like Alitalia or Norwegian. Some are in much better shape, like Finnair, KLM. Let's also not forget that Brussels Airlines posted a profit in 2015, 2016, 2017 & 2018. That's in 4 our of the last 5 consecutive years. Figures for January and February 2020 were also much better that last year. Does it really matter what SN's financial state was 10 or 15 years ago?
Unfortunately the consolidated loss does matter as, it’s in the books: 90 million plus 40 for 2019.
During the years you quote debt went up from 400 to 500 million and 125 million state aid was converted into junk shares The marginal profit was based on unsustainable growth.
What sums this thread up perfectly is: let’s shoot the messenger!

I have been preaching here repeatedly for a participation in a big group be it LH, IAG or another one, but the millions the Belgian state invests should either be a loan which is paid back from future profit of the group, not the Belgian branch or shares in the parent company which can be sold later.
Belgium can’t afford dumping hundreds of millions in SN without guarantee the future profit won’t disappear in German shareholders pockets. If LH is really interested in a viable future for SN they won’t object, if they want to use/abuse Belgian money to block competition from entering the Belgian market, Frankfurt’s back garden, they will object.
Last edited by Poiu on 10 Apr 2020, 11:58, edited 1 time in total.

sean1982
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sean1982 »

DeltaWiskey wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 11:18

Haters gonna hate, that sums up this thread perfectly.
And still you don't get it's not about emotion, but pure simple money matters. Especially when it is my money too.

Ge203
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Ge203 »

It's about emotion or past experience (whichever you want) when you throw numbers pulled straight out of magic hat, without any kind of actual knowledge of the situation (I suppose you don't have, so do I, if you have don't hesitate to let us know).

I see people talking about reducing capacity by 50%, others by 25%. Some say they should stop those destinations (btw I don't see why an airline would still be flying to destinations which isn't profitable or for strategic purposes ( connecting pax or cash)). All of these are based on guesses, which don't bring anything to the debate.

But guys, they're people getting paid, who actually have all the figures they need to take decisions. Let them do their job and wait for their actions (and if you wish comment on those). It will be much more relevant...

Only my thought, don't comply with it if you think I'm wrong.

DeltaWiskey
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by DeltaWiskey »

Poiu wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 11:42 Unfortunately the consolidated loss does matter as, it’s in the books: 90 million plus 40 for 2019.
During the years you quote debt went up from 400 to 500 million and 125 million state aid was converted into junk shares The marginal profit was based on unsustainable growth.
What sums this thread up perfectly is: let’s shoot the messenger!
Please explain why the "consolidated loss" is so important according to you? I am honestly interested in your point of view.

The loss carried forward in the balance sheet is there for future tax deductions. There is whole business in (re)selling companies with a high accumulated loss, purely for tax benefits. Whether a company goes bankrupt or not, is basically determined by its cash position. That's why states are helping "their" airlines.

An example: Tesla has made a loss every single year in its existence. Yet, it is valued as a >$100billion company. Is the loss carried forward really that important?

Please also explain the 125 million state aid? Do you mean the investment by around 30 (Belgian based) multinationals in SN Air Holding shares (of which they also partly profited with tax deductions), which they sold to Lufthansa? The sale (contract/transaction/loan) was written on paper, signed and agreed to by all involved parties. There really is no blame on the part of Brussels Airlines, maybe some opportunistic politicians, but even that is debatable. If I sell my shares on the stock market with a loss, am I right to blame others?

The "security charge" state aid to SN, TUI & TCB that was ruled illegal in 2017, has also been fully paid back, that is reflected in the 2016-2017 figures.

This is not about shooting the messenger, some people are bringing irrelevant numbers to the discussion, is it wrong to point that out?

Poiu
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Poiu »

DeltaWiskey wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 13:42
Poiu wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 11:42 Unfortunately the consolidated loss does matter as, it’s in the books: 90 million plus 40 for 2019.
During the years you quote debt went up from 400 to 500 million and 125 million state aid was converted into junk shares The marginal profit was based on unsustainable growth.
What sums this thread up perfectly is: let’s shoot the messenger!
Please explain why the "consolidated loss" is so important according to you? I am honestly interested in your point of view.

The loss carried forward in the balance sheet is there for future tax deductions. There is whole business in (re)selling companies with a high accumulated loss, purely for tax benefits. Whether a company goes bankrupt or not, is basically determined by its cash position. That's why states are helping "their" airlines.
Try to go to the bank and ask for a credit line with a consolidated loss of 130 million!
And that’s exactly what this is about: getting a credit to increase your cash, if SN would have gone to the banks on the 1st of January with the 2019 balance sheet in their hands and ask for a credit of 300 million, what would have been the answer? Yes or no, this answer should be the controlling factor for state aid.
Today no a single bank wants to provide credit lines to airlines, that’s why the state needs to step in and provide state guarantee for those who would have got the credit from a bank three months ago.
If a credit line would not have been possible you can still ask the state to invest instead of providing a guarantee but then they should get shares in the company they invest into, namely Lufthansa.

ezis_bis
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by ezis_bis »

Why would the Belgian Government bail out Brussels Airlines?
In the end, this money will be used to force all of us to connect in Frankfurt to Lufthansa flights.
That's just throwing your money away.

Like Estonian Gov owning Nordica which just flies for LOT and SAS.
That's just useless

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Conti764
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

ezis_bis wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 17:50 Why would the Belgian Government bail out Brussels Airlines?
In the end, this money will be used to force all of us to connect in Frankfurt to Lufthansa flights.
That's just throwing your money away.

Like Estonian Gov owning Nordica which just flies for LOT and SAS.
That's just useless
OK, than let them go bankrupt. LH will happily send some more A320's to BRU from FRA/MUC (pitty they don't have the often-seen-at-BRU-A300 anymore), working out a schedule with their remaining A++ partners and Asian airlines to reroute pax from BRU through their own hubs. Air France will happily step in to take most of the lucrative African market from BRU.

Brussels Airport will become a narrowbody heaven with airlines from all neighbouring countries draining out passengers and we might see a handful of widebody activity from UA and DL.

BRU will become an XL-CRL...

ezis_bis
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by ezis_bis »

Conti764 wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 18:17 Brussels Airport will become a narrowbody heaven with airlines from all neighbouring countries draining out passengers and we might see a handful of widebody activity from UA and DL.
That's my point exactly.
I don't like this.
But if the Belgian Government gives a bailout blindly and let LH decide, this is *exactly* what's going to happen.
In that case, you get the same result by giving €0.

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Conti764
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

ezis_bis wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 18:23
Conti764 wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 18:17 Brussels Airport will become a narrowbody heaven with airlines from all neighbouring countries draining out passengers and we might see a handful of widebody activity from UA and DL.
That's my point exactly.
I don't like this.
But if the Belgian Government gives a bailout blindly and let LH decide, this is *exactly* what's going to happen.
In that case, you get the same result by giving €0.
The government isn't giving a bailout blindly, I think that's already clear by now.

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sn26567
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sn26567 »

ezis_bis wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 18:23
Conti764 wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 18:17 Brussels Airport will become a narrowbody heaven with airlines from all neighbouring countries draining out passengers and we might see a handful of widebody activity from UA and DL.
That's my point exactly.
I don't like this.
But if the Belgian Government gives a bailout blindly and let LH decide, this is *exactly* what's going to happen.
In that case, you get the same result by giving €0.
That's why, as already suggested before, the Belgian Government should bail out Brussels Airlines in exchange for a share in Lufthansa: a Belgian Director at the Board of Lufthansa could deflect the policy of the German airline group in favour of SN and BRU. And the Belgian Government could reap the profits and dividends of a rejuvenated LH Group.
André
ex Sabena #26567

A321Lufthansa
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by A321Lufthansa »

Atlantis wrote: 09 Apr 2020, 22:31 Some of those holiday destinations like Valencia and Santorini will not be missed. They are not giving the high revenue. So this is not a surprise and a good move of SN. I think that more of them will follow.

What is, on the other hand, a real surprise is Moscow. This is a city to be. They had of course the strong competition with Aeroflot with good service. If compared with the service of SN and the not always good slots then the bill is made.
After the quarantine lifting until 31.03.21 they’ll anyway be able to be feeded by Aeroflot from Moscow as they have code-share now.

ezis_bis
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by ezis_bis »

sn26567 wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 19:26 That's why, as already suggested before, the Belgian Government should bail out Brussels Airlines in exchange for a share in Lufthansa: a Belgian Director at the Board of Lufthansa could deflect the policy of the German airline group in favour of SN and BRU.
Fine. This makes sense and I think it's the right way forward. As long the vote/imput is meaningful, so BE doesn't get outvoted each time when concerning SN (vs D-A-CH, who also will want a say on the new LH Group)

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lumumba
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by lumumba »

I just read an article in Lecho.be about Brussels Airlines they are crazy they want to let Brussels Airlines go bankrupt because it's not strategic!
He(the journalist)doesn't know nothing about a domino effect even DHL has a chance to leave Brussels because it uses the African flight's etc...
The long haul flights mostly African will not be flown by other airlines and would be gone to other big European airlines to there capital if this is not strategic!!!!
For the first time I see and understand the anger of the Flemish part of the country,be sure that if Brussels airlines was flying from Charleroi he would never take this position.
Hasta la victoria siempre.

sean1982
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sean1982 »

De Croo says Brussels Airlines wont be bailed out by the government if they and the LH group don’t come up with a long term survivability plan.

https://m.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20200410 ... m_term=dso

nordikcam
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by nordikcam »

sean1982 wrote: 11 Apr 2020, 09:40 De Croo says Brussels Airlines wont be bailed out by the government if they and the LH group don’t come up with a long term survivability plan.

https://m.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20200410 ... m_term=dso
It would seem that the Belgian Government discovered, during this crisis, that LH owns 100% of SN without any power of decision over the company. A beginning of reflection that I perceive as useful.

SR20
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by SR20 »

lumumba wrote: 11 Apr 2020, 00:23 For the first time I see and understand the anger of the Flemish part of the country,be sure that if Brussels airlines was flying from Charleroi he would never take this position.
If I remember well, Wallonia invested in SN Brussels Airlines after Sabena went bankrupt ! Flanders was by far more reluctant to say the least. So I think your statement is a bit pointless.

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