Brussels Airlines in 2020

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sean1982
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sean1982 »

Conti764 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 14:47
sean1982 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 12:48
DeltaWiskey wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 12:08

I also don't understand why so many on this forum would like to see SN fail. If SN goes bankrupt, there will not be a new Belgian carrier! Many investors have already burnt their hand once, they will not do it a 2nd time.
It's not a question about wanting to see it fail, it is a question off "should public money be invested into it". If you work for the company, then it's probably a no brainer. If you are a critical taxpayer like myself, the answer isnt so clear. There are hundreds if not thousands of companies that will need to be saved, many of them of critical importance to the Belgian economy and public life. Why invest a couple of 100 million euros into a company that with some small exceptions has not made a profit in its whole excistence? Where the parent company has not showed the slightest intrest in making it into something useful but just uses it as an extension to prptect their home market? Should all of our tax money be used to protect the FRA market of LH? I have serious doubts about it, specially because we will all be paying more then a few tickets a year to keep it afloat. Question is ... for how long?
If you want to saveguard whatever is left of Belgian aviation the government has no choice but to keep SN afloat. Afterall, SN going bankrupt will have huge repercussions for BRU as well in losing other traffic apart SN's resulting in even more job loss. Like in 2002 neighbouring country's airlines will prey on whatever is left of the Belgian market but that's not what they should be going after.

SN has to change strategy (again). The merger with VEX proved a mistake, going after the price sensitive travellers as well. Return to the basics of SN Brussels Airlines and rebuild from there with fewer A319/20 aircraft but retaining as much long haul traffic as possible.
That's like i said the only option that might have a chance of long term survivability, but what if it doesn't? Who is then gonna pay the money back? What if it does? How long will taxpayers have to wait to see their money back?

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Yuqu12
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Yuqu12 »

Airbus330lover wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 14:38
Yuqu12 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 13:21 It may be indeed that SN hasn't always been profitable, but it is also useful to look a little bit further being the government. If they take over SN, it may cost money as long as they aren't profitable but the negative economic consequences of SN going bankrupt will cost probably even more. I just read this morning that the Belgian tourism sector may lose 2 billion euros this year. Travel agencies like Connections etc. rely on SN to fly their clients to their destination. So the question should maybe not be whether it is necessary to save an airline which hasn't always been profitable but the question should rather be whether it is a good decision to accept the negative economic consequences of the biggest Belgian airline going bankrupt because of the fact it hasn't been profitable in the past years. Next to that, SN hasn't had losses as bad as Alitalia, so I don't think that re-nationalise SN would ever cost as much as the Italian government has been funding Alitalia over the last 2 years.

Lastly, the government/Belfius could as well impose conditions on the possible re-nationalisation like shrinking a bit, continue the Reboot-programme or being it a temporary re-nationalisation until SN has the funds to buy out the government/Belfius and become independent again.
Good point, but why Belfius ? We have a lot more investors outside the banks and Belfius alone.
Because Belfius is a State-owned bank, so this is the only bank the Belgian government can "order" to make such investments. BNP-Paribas is sold to the French, ING is Dutch and KBC has repaid all its aid from the bank crisis of 2008. Although the investment funds of the government may be an option as well.

Poiu
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Poiu »

Conti764 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 14:57
Imho you'e being a little too harsh with trimming down the long haul flying, although I do agree with heavily trimming down the European fleet. But for the rest it seems pretty obvious SN will have to let go of the lower part of the market and focus on the higher yielding business market. I'm curious to see how aviation will evolve after Corona anyways. I think it will make a shift towards higher yield flying again.
Long haul is based on connecting passengers, how can you justify putting millions of taxpayers money in a business of which the only value for the Belgian economy is a bit of tax free shopping?
I am sceptical about the increasing yield as well, companies lost millions, they will be tight on their travel budget and if a majority of airlines are bailed out the overcapacity will only increase leading to lower prices.
Last edited by Poiu on 02 Apr 2020, 16:19, edited 2 times in total.

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Conti764
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

sean1982 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 15:42
Conti764 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 14:47
sean1982 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 12:48

It's not a question about wanting to see it fail, it is a question off "should public money be invested into it". If you work for the company, then it's probably a no brainer. If you are a critical taxpayer like myself, the answer isnt so clear. There are hundreds if not thousands of companies that will need to be saved, many of them of critical importance to the Belgian economy and public life. Why invest a couple of 100 million euros into a company that with some small exceptions has not made a profit in its whole excistence? Where the parent company has not showed the slightest intrest in making it into something useful but just uses it as an extension to prptect their home market? Should all of our tax money be used to protect the FRA market of LH? I have serious doubts about it, specially because we will all be paying more then a few tickets a year to keep it afloat. Question is ... for how long?
If you want to saveguard whatever is left of Belgian aviation the government has no choice but to keep SN afloat. Afterall, SN going bankrupt will have huge repercussions for BRU as well in losing other traffic apart SN's resulting in even more job loss. Like in 2002 neighbouring country's airlines will prey on whatever is left of the Belgian market but that's not what they should be going after.

SN has to change strategy (again). The merger with VEX proved a mistake, going after the price sensitive travellers as well. Return to the basics of SN Brussels Airlines and rebuild from there with fewer A319/20 aircraft but retaining as much long haul traffic as possible.
That's like i said the only option that might have a chance of long term survivability, but what if it doesn't? Who is then gonna pay the money back? What if it does? How long will taxpayers have to wait to see their money back?
That's the risk they'll have to take (with our money, that is).

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Conti764
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

Poiu wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 16:12
Conti764 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 14:57
Imho you'e being a little too harsh with trimming down the long haul flying, although I do agree with heavily trimming down the European fleet. But for the rest it seems pretty obvious SN will have to let go of the lower part of the market and focus on the higher yielding business market. I'm curious to see how aviation will evolve after Corona anyways. I think it will make a shift towards higher yield flying again.
Long haul is based on connecting passengers, how can you justify putting millions of taxpayers money in a business of which the only value for the Belgian economy is a bit of tax free shopping?
There will still be connecting passengers. SN has to drop the lower end of the market, the 'as cheap as possible'-customers and leave them to companies that are better suited to cater for their needs.

The added value for the Belgian economy is the fewer people that will be on unemployment and generate economic value through their wages and spending. Having SN go bankrupt will result in 3500 SN employees looking for welfare and on top of that numerous more who will be laid off due to a sharply decreasing demand at Brussels Airport.

I see a lot of people questioning whether the government should invest money in a risky industry as aviation. But if you count the expenses the government will have to make to provide laid off people with welfare checks, the decreasing spending of those people due to being set back several hundred euro's per month in unemployment, the decreased economic activity at BRU, resulting in again lesser revenue, lesser employment, lesser taxes being payed, you'll get another financial picture.

Don't forget that if SN goes bankrupt it will be over and out for a lot of people in Belgian aviation. A yet again new company will not be viable since the economy is being much harder hit compared to 2001/2002 and Belgian captains of industry will not be so eager to invest in it. Employment options for other companies will be scarce.

I think the government will take bigger risks by not investing in SN.

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Conti764
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Conti764 »

Poiu wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 16:12
Conti764 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 14:57
Imho you'e being a little too harsh with trimming down the long haul flying, although I do agree with heavily trimming down the European fleet. But for the rest it seems pretty obvious SN will have to let go of the lower part of the market and focus on the higher yielding business market. I'm curious to see how aviation will evolve after Corona anyways. I think it will make a shift towards higher yield flying again.
Long haul is based on connecting passengers, how can you justify putting millions of taxpayers money in a business of which the only value for the Belgian economy is a bit of tax free shopping?
I am sceptical about the increasing yield as well, companies lost millions, they will be tight on their travel budget and if a majority of airlines are bailed out the overcapacity will only increase leading to lower prices.
Well, it won't be business as usual the day after Corona, ofcourse... So whoever invests in SN shouldn't expect an immediate return on investment but rather see it as a multiple year-plan to start seeing some money back. Aviation will suffer for years to come but at some point will grow back to its current level.

Poiu
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Poiu »

Conti764 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 16:23
Don't forget that if SN goes bankrupt it will be over and out for a lot of people in Belgian aviation. A yet again new company will not be viable since the economy is being much harder hit compared to 2001/2002 and Belgian captains of industry will not be so eager to invest in it. Employment options for other companies will be scarce.

I think the government will take bigger risks by not investing in SN.
The money from those captains of industry has been burned, the only thing which they have left is shares in a virtual bankrupt company.
The State granted a 125 million loan to SNBA in 2001, these millions were written off in 2013 as Brussels Airlines wasn’t even able to pay the interest. Why would it be any different this time?
If you think that going bankrupt and starting from scratch won’t work, how can it work when you start with a huge pile of debts?
As for the loss of jobs, even if SN gets a bailout around half of the jobs will unfortunately be lost.

Inquirer
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Inquirer »

I think many people here are unable to understand the fact some businesses are of STRATEGIC importance to our county's economy and are arguing from the basis of the profitability of the company itself, whereas you really have to look beyond the individual balance sheet for such companies, especially in the current situation.

Simply put, the presence of a strategic company generates so much additional benefits to our country, that they are deemed indispensble to the smooth functioning of our country's open economy and must be saved.
I've read how people argue about how much B.air makes/loses a year and should thus not be saved, but forget about those few (tens of) millions either way in the present situation: it's really of no importance whatsoever on a moment our country's economy will shrink with about 15 to 20BN euro and every percentage point less contraction means hundreds of millions of money saved!

What it KEY is that because of the fact there's a home based airline operating a significant network in BRU, our country is far better connected with other places in Europe and elsewhere in the world, thus making Belgium a much more attractive place for businesses to conduct their activities in. Without such connectivity, I'd say good luck attracting the much needed foreign investment if you are virtually unreachable for years to come. Let's be honnest: nobody else (IAG, Ryanair, Easyjet, a newco) is going to step in to replace Brussels Airlines anytime soon at BRU, so it's either them, or nothing at all.

Brussels Airlines has reportely been labelled strategic by our government and the decision has thus been taken to bail it out: all that remains to be decided is the exact form under which this will be done.
My bet is it will be a combination of an extended loan to cover their losses during the initial phase of their start-up as soon as possible, with an equity investment in return for a minority share in the company: as such it allows our government to take a passive attitude in the daily running of the airline (without a commercial change with regards to codesharing, alliance membership and A++ JV) and dispose of this public equity investment in due time, either for money or a minority share in Lufthansa proper.

sean1982
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sean1982 »

Inquirer wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 19:46 I think many people here are unable to understand the fact some businesses are of STRATEGIC importance to our county's economy and are arguing from the basis of the profitability of the company itself, whereas you really have to look beyond the individual balance sheet for such companies, especially in the current situation.
I dont think anyone here does not not know what the word strategic means, a bit condescending to want to explain it. Also everyone here know that the current balance sheet of the company indeed does not matter. What does matter is the balance sheet of the company in its entire existence which has been almost negative over the whole line. In a time where 100 strategic companies will be looking towards the tax payer to save them, its important to not put ourself into a situation where we continuously dump public money in a bottomless pit. The parent company wasnt prepared to do thatn, why should we ?

I think you still have problems seeing clear when it comes to SN inquirer, You have changed your opinion 100 times over the past years. From "the impressive line up of B tails in the morning" to the "perfect lcc-business blend company" to the "we need eurowings to seperate the brand" to "we dont need to brand at all". Unfortunatly for you I have a good memory.

crew1990
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by crew1990 »

sean1982 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:20 I think you still have problems seeing clear when it comes to SN inquirer, You have changed your opinion 100 times over the past years. From "the impressive line up of B tails in the morning" to the "perfect lcc-business blend company" to the "we need eurowings to seperate the brand" to "we dont need to brand at all". Unfortunatly for you I have a good memory.
This is what is happening when you are passionate about the company you are working for, and this is actually what you did too for years when you was working for Ryanair.

sean1982
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sean1982 »

crew1990 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:30
sean1982 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:20 I think you still have problems seeing clear when it comes to SN inquirer, You have changed your opinion 100 times over the past years. From "the impressive line up of B tails in the morning" to the "perfect lcc-business blend company" to the "we need eurowings to seperate the brand" to "we dont need to brand at all". Unfortunatly for you I have a good memory.
This is what is happening when you are passionate about the company you are working for, and this is actually what you did too for years when you was working for Ryanair.
With that difference that FR is one of the biggest business succes stories of this century, but anyway, that has nothing to do with this topic. Also, Inquirer always said he didnt work for SN?

crew1990
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by crew1990 »

sean1982 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:34
crew1990 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:30
sean1982 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:20 I think you still have problems seeing clear when it comes to SN inquirer, You have changed your opinion 100 times over the past years. From "the impressive line up of B tails in the morning" to the "perfect lcc-business blend company" to the "we need eurowings to seperate the brand" to "we dont need to brand at all". Unfortunatly for you I have a good memory.
This is what is happening when you are passionate about the company you are working for, and this is actually what you did too for years when you was working for Ryanair.
With that difference that FR is one of the biggest business succes stories of this century. Also, Inquirer always said he didnt work for SN?
I agree with you, but it doesn't mean that everything "bussiness-wise" has always been perfect at Ryanair, they made some mistake too and this is normal nobody is perfect. But it's really annoying that when a member is giving his personnal opinion, that you attack him this way because he doesn't think the same way of you. There were nothing constructive in your answer, just a personal attack.

Anyway, back to topic

sean1982
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sean1982 »

crew1990 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:39
sean1982 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:34
crew1990 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:30

This is what is happening when you are passionate about the company you are working for, and this is actually what you did too for years when you was working for Ryanair.
With that difference that FR is one of the biggest business succes stories of this century. Also, Inquirer always said he didnt work for SN?
I agree with you, but it doesn't mean that everything "bussiness-wise" has always been perfect at Ryanair, they made some mistake too and this is normal nobody is perfect. But it's really annoying that when a member is giving his personnal opinion, that you attack him this way because he doesn't think the same way of you. There were nothing constructive in your answer, just a personal attack.

Anyway, back to topic
Im sorry? read that again? I said why I didnt agree with it. I have a problem if opinions get changed a hundred times. It becomes a lot less geloofwaardig
Last edited by sean1982 on 02 Apr 2020, 20:42, edited 1 time in total.

Crosswind
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Crosswind »

Only one question : how much money has the belgian State received since the creation of SNBA, through employee earnings (annual/social taxes, consumer goods etc...) ?

sean1982
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by sean1982 »

Crosswind wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:42 Only one question : how much money has the belgian State received since the creation of SNBA, through employee earnings (annual/social taxes, consumer goods etc...) ?
Fair, but every company/employee in Belgium pays that.

Crosswind
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Crosswind »

sean1982 wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:46
Crosswind wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:42 Only one question : how much money has the belgian State received since the creation of SNBA, through employee earnings (annual/social taxes, consumer goods etc...) ?
Fair, but every company/employee in Belgium pays that.
Sure. Any estimation for, let's say, the 2019 year? If you want to compare a given investment at state level, as Poiu does, you must incorporate all the relevant incoming data, the global ROI, for a given period, at the same level.

Question #2 : how much money invested in SNBA by state/stakeholder since 2001?
Last edited by Crosswind on 02 Apr 2020, 20:56, edited 2 times in total.

Poiu
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Poiu »

Crosswind wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:42 Only one question : how much money has the belgian State received since the creation of SNBA, through employee earnings (annual/social taxes, consumer goods etc...) ?
Wrong question: between 2001 and 2010 social taxes were deducted from the salaries, but SN did not transfer all of them to the State, a construction to hide subsidies for the EU.
Last edited by Poiu on 02 Apr 2020, 21:22, edited 1 time in total.

Crosswind
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Crosswind »

Poiu wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 21:12
Crosswind wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 20:42 Only one question : how much money has the belgian State received since the creation of SNBA, through employee earnings (annual/social taxes, consumer goods etc...) ?
Wrong question: between 2001 and 2010 social taxes were deducted from the salaries, but SN did not transfer all of them to the State, a way to hide subsidies for the EU.
Do you have a proof of your assertion (preferably with numerical exemples, references)? Otherwise you are defaming.

In any case, question remains relevant : you must consider all the money that is earned on a given period at the State level, and compare it to the money invested.

You know what? Belgium is an easy winner on that. Just take into consideration 200 captains salaries, around 5000 euros a month per head, straight to state's pocket. 12 million € for a single year.

Poiu
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by Poiu »

Crosswind wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 21:19
Do you have a proof of your assertion (preferably with numerical exemples, references)? Otherwise you are defaming.

In any case, question remains relevant : you must consider all the money that is earned on a given period at the State level, and compare it to the money invested.

You know what? Belgium is an easy winner on that. Just take into consideration 200 captains salaries, around 5000 euros a month per head, straight to state's pocket. 12 million € for a single year.
Careful with your accusations please, we are having a discussion between grownups, there is no right or wrong we have different ideas and try to support them with relevant arguments, this is not a mudd throwing contest.
But, of course, I do have proof and a figure: 4 million a year. (https://www.tijd.be/nieuws/onderneminge ... 01962.html)

Your 200 captains would pay the same or even more taxes if they were employed by another airline, so how does that justify State aid?
Last edited by Poiu on 02 Apr 2020, 21:40, edited 1 time in total.

crew1990
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Re: Brussels Airlines in 2020

Post by crew1990 »

Poiu wrote: 02 Apr 2020, 21:31 Your 200 captains would pay the same or even more if they were employed by another airline.
Yeah but if those captain have to go to work abroad those taxes will go away too. Priority should be to safeguard local employement. If Brussels Airlines collapse, it could be terrible for employement because let's not forget that beside the Brussels Airlines employee, there is also all the people working for other companies depending of brussels airlines directly or undirectly.

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