Brexit and British Airways, easyJet, Ryanair, et al.

Join this forum to discuss the latest news that happened in the world of commercial aviation.

Moderator: Latest news team

Post Reply
User avatar
lumumba
Posts: 1430
Joined: 04 Sep 2003, 00:00
Location: brussels Europe

Brexit and British Airways, easyJet, Ryanair, et al.

Post by lumumba » 24 Jun 2016, 09:03

What will change for a airline like British Airways.
They will be out of the open market?
Etc...
Hasta la victoria siempre.



User avatar
Conti764
Posts: 1399
Joined: 21 Sep 2007, 23:21

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by Conti764 » 24 Jun 2016, 10:28

It depends on what the Brexit means for LHR... Accept being an international megahub it also is the major gateway to London, untill now the heart of European finance. What if all those companies live up to their threat to leave the UK if they leave the EU...?

Inquirer
Posts: 1967
Joined: 14 Feb 2012, 14:30

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by Inquirer » 24 Jun 2016, 10:35

The Brits (or should I rather say the English?) have shot themselves in both feet yesterday, as will become evident over the coming months as one starts to see the practical economic consequences of the out-vote.

Incredibly enough, the best British Airways (and other British firms) can now do is beg and hope they will be allowed continued access and full benefits of the European single market, probably in return for exactly the same (or less favourable even) terms as under the EU, yet WITHOUT any influence on the process.
However, it only takes 1 unwilling EU government to shatter this hope: I can think of the French for instance willing to make London 'pay' somehow, or the Polish Government, etc....
One thing can be said for sure: it's not going to be swift, it's not going to be easy, it's not going to come cheep.

Not to mention the Brits may very well have broken up not 1 but 2 unions yesterday, with Scotland splitting off and going its own way, while the box of Pandora is re-opened in Northern Ireland as well.
There may not be much Britain left in 2 years from now!

Incredible how a majority of people can be lured into daring to take such a massive gamble just by reading tabloids owned by an Australian (!) billionaire who's virulently against the EU purely because he can not buy influence over it like he can over Downing Street 10, spreading the most incredible horror stories about it!

One thing is for sure: this will cost them a lot of money and growth.
It now depends on others just how much, a situation I wouldn't want to be in, let alone put myself in like the Brits (actually just the English/Welsh) did.

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein.

saratoga
Posts: 197
Joined: 04 Apr 2006, 00:00

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by saratoga » 24 Jun 2016, 10:44

All because of Cameron. He started the whole thing because he was feeling the breath of Ukip in his neck.
He gambled but lost!

Inquirer
Posts: 1967
Joined: 14 Feb 2012, 14:30

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by Inquirer » 24 Jun 2016, 11:02

saratoga wrote:All because of Cameron. He started the whole thing because he was feeling the breath of Ukip in his neck.
He gambled but lost!
I know it's completely off topic, but for once I'll reply to it.

David Cameron first booked a surprise landslide victory in the general elections only a year ago or so, as good as wiping away the Lib Dems from and decimating Labour in Parliament, only to create a level of economic and political chaos for the British people completely unseen since WWII on the back of him putting into needless question two very successful unions: both the EU as well as the UK.

David Cameron will definitely become a British PM which will be remembered in future, but I strongly doubt he'll be much praised for his leadership in a couple of years from now: former Tory PM's like Thatcher or Churchill would shake their heads in total disbelief over all of this, for sure!

sean1982
Posts: 3097
Joined: 18 Mar 2003, 00:00
Contact:

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by sean1982 » 24 Jun 2016, 11:04

Instead he will be remembered for gambling the welfare of many on his ego. *slow clap* :roll:

saratoga
Posts: 197
Joined: 04 Apr 2006, 00:00

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by saratoga » 24 Jun 2016, 11:24

To be back on topic. I dont think it will make any difference for BA and other uk companies.

sean1982
Posts: 3097
Joined: 18 Mar 2003, 00:00
Contact:

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by sean1982 » 24 Jun 2016, 11:28

saratoga wrote:To be back on topic. I dont think it will make any difference for BA and other uk companies.
probably not, like switserland and Norway there is no issue, but it depends on the negotiations off course

Inquirer
Posts: 1967
Joined: 14 Feb 2012, 14:30

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by Inquirer » 24 Jun 2016, 11:41

Nobody really knows HOW to proceed now, not even the Brexiteers.
Once they have decided HOW to proceed, it then depends on WHAT is agreed upon with the rest of the EU: the most widely expected thing to come out from this is that the UK will remain a sort of EU member in all but official name, but for that to happen a lot of technical and political work needs to be done, the first taking money, time and effort, the second taking goodwill.

In any case, it means protracted uncertainty for British businesses, leading to delayed investments and less hiring by them and thus lower economic activity throughout the UK: the temporarily yet tangible effects of this will be seen as from the figures of H2 of this year already and will remain for several years to come, at least.

No need to dramatize: the sky is not going to fall on anybody's head tomorrow, but it will make a meaningful and negative difference for sure and it's one that could have been avoided easily if some people in office had used their head a bit more: you don't put highly complex yet very emotional things to a simple YES/NO referendum!

What's next? A referendum on abolishing all income taxes in the UK, maybe?
How on earth NHS hospitals, state schools, public roads etc are going to be funded is a problem to be bothered with 'later' too then, for sure.

User avatar
lumumba
Posts: 1430
Joined: 04 Sep 2003, 00:00
Location: brussels Europe

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by lumumba » 24 Jun 2016, 11:57

sean1982 wrote:
saratoga wrote:To be back on topic. I dont think it will make any difference for BA and other uk companies.
probably not, like switserland and Norway there is no issue, but it depends on the negotiations off course

I'm not so sure Switzerland and Norway pays a lot of money to the EU for that I'm not sure the England is also ready to do so!
Hasta la victoria siempre.

sean1982
Posts: 3097
Joined: 18 Mar 2003, 00:00
Contact:

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by sean1982 » 24 Jun 2016, 12:18

lumumba wrote:
sean1982 wrote:
saratoga wrote:To be back on topic. I dont think it will make any difference for BA and other uk companies.
probably not, like switserland and Norway there is no issue, but it depends on the negotiations off course

I'm not so sure Switzerland and Norway pays a lot of money to the EU for that I'm not sure the England is also ready to do so!
They don't really have a choice if they want to keep their economy going. Uk is greatly dependant on import/export for their BNP. The irony of the leave vote is that they going to have to keep paying in order to protect their trade agreements but will have nothing to say anymore about what happens with the money.

Passenger
Posts: 5668
Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by Passenger » 24 Jun 2016, 13:25

Strange. Untill yesterday, many big bosses from British/Irish airlines told voters that a Brexit would mean disaster for Great-Britain, for aviation, for passengers, for airports, ... One of the aviation industry leaders even posted in a clown suit to plea voters to vote Remain.

And today, we have to believe that the Brexit won't be a problem for aviation - it's just a matter of some negociations that have to be done?

Homo Aeroportus
Posts: 926
Joined: 24 Feb 2007, 18:28
Location: 2300NM due South of North Pole

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by Homo Aeroportus » 24 Jun 2016, 14:46

Legitimate question about BA but as this Brexit (after the would be Grexit) may have shown the way to others, maybe we will have other airlines in doubt one day :
AZ after the Italeave?
TP after the Departugal?
OS after the Outstria?
BT after the Latviadios?
AF after the Fraurevoir?
OK after the Czechout?
and unfortunately SN after the Byegium?
the latter maybe leading to a Vlaanderout and a Walapart?

OK, I'll put my coat on now.
;)
H.A.

Inquirer
Posts: 1967
Joined: 14 Feb 2012, 14:30

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by Inquirer » 24 Jun 2016, 15:19

The UK is half a day into the new reality and the first economic consequences are showing:

IAG, the parent holding of British Airways, has issued a profit warning, stating it expects profits for the current year to be significantly lower than last year (without providing further guidance).

Shares in IAG plunged by over 33%, before recovering very slightly. :shock:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -this-year

Well done, Dave, well done!
It's only just the start of it, I fear.

User avatar
RoMax
Posts: 4371
Joined: 20 Jun 2009, 16:32

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by RoMax » 24 Jun 2016, 15:29

As both easyJet and BA/IAG have already commented, a lot of things will depend on whether the UK remains part of ECAA (just like Norway and Iceland for example). As long as they remain part of the common European aviation market, there will not be major changes for the UK carriers and EU carriers retain free access to the UK market. Otherwise another kind of aviation agreement (such as with Switserland) is also possible.

Of course there will be effects (and besides the direct operational and strategic effects on aviation, there is the big question about the economic impact), but at this point it is just impossible to say how big that impact will be.

Poiu
Posts: 462
Joined: 14 Nov 2015, 09:38

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by Poiu » 24 Jun 2016, 15:33

Correct Inquirer, scaring isn't it?
At the end IAG is probably one of the companies who is going to suffer less as the are well established in both the EU and UK. With Vueling they are prepared for the upcoming price war which will be boosted by the Bredit induced recession. Notwithstanding all that they lost 1/3rd of their value today....

Poiu
Posts: 462
Joined: 14 Nov 2015, 09:38

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by Poiu » 24 Jun 2016, 15:40

RoMax wrote:As both easyJet and BA/IAG have already commented, a lot of things will depend on whether the UK remains part of ECAA (just like Norway and Iceland for example). As long as they remain part of the common European aviation market, there will not be major changes for the UK carriers and EU carriers retain free access to the UK market. Otherwise another kind of aviation agreement (such as with Switserland) is also possible.
Do you think the EU will grant membership of ECAA just like that? It will come with all the strings attached which made the UK vote for a Brexit. Traffic between EU and UK probably yes but G planes operating between EU cities?? EasyJet will be the biggest victim as the half half of their fleet is based out of the UK operated by EU nationals.
The agreement with the Swiss is very strict, it is part of a, quite strict, seven agreements package deal. (labour, immigration, money,..).

flightlover
Posts: 583
Joined: 12 Aug 2008, 08:26

Re: British Airways and the Brexit?

Post by flightlover » 24 Jun 2016, 15:47

Poiu wrote:Correct Inquirer, scaring isn't it?
At the end IAG is probably one of the companies who is going to suffer less as the are well established in both the EU and UK. With Vueling they are prepared for the upcoming price war which will be boosted by the Bredit induced recession. Notwithstanding all that they lost 1/3rd of their value today....
If I remember well, A foreign shareholder can only hold 49% of a EU based airline. So unless some sort of agreement is made on that issue, BA will have to let go of at least some shares of their holdings in Vueling an Iberia and officially hand the control to an EU based companion. So they will have to go through some big changes for shore.

Post Reply