EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

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SN539
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by SN539 »

Flanker2 wrote:With nothing found up to now, this is shaping up to become another MH370.

If the aircraft was in BRU just a few days ago, there is also a possibility that a bomb was installed in BRU and triggered later or set for a later explosion to keep people guessing.
Ah ah, you should write a thriller !!! :D

Passenger
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by Passenger »

Yuqu12 wrote:I heard somewhere that the plane went to technic the day before it went to Paris. It is perhaps more logic (IF it is a terror attack) that the bomb was installed there.
If one looks at last weeks' history on Flightradar, one sees that the aircraft flew around almost constantly. Except for 17th May, when it was grounded in Cairo from 03h00 a.m. (arr from Paris) till 10h00 a.m. (dep to Brussels). That gap was maybe for planned maintenance, maybe for a technical issue?
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/su-gcc

Regarding "the bomb": like I posted earlier: if someone places a bomb in an aircraft, wouldn't it be normal that he wants that the aircraft explodes shortly later (like the Metrojet A321 that crashed 23 minutes after take off)? However, this one flew 3 hours and 10 minutes after departure from Paris. Check the flight on Flightradar: if they would have left on time and if they would have taken off eastbound iso westbound, they would have been on final approach to CAI when the bomb exploded. Or perhaps just on the ground.

Therefore: if a bomb was put onboard in Paris, couldn't one expect that the aircraft would have exploded 2 hours earlier? If was a bomb with just a time mechanism off course.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... cc#9c0b766

The only thing we know so far for sure, is that the Egyptian authorities are unreliable.

(edited -> double phrase)

sean1982
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by sean1982 »

Passenger wrote:
Yuqu12 wrote:I heard somewhere that the plane went to technic the day before it went to Paris. It is perhaps more logic (IF it is a terror attack) that the bomb was installed there.
If one looks at last weeks' history on Flightradar, one sees that the aircraft flew around almost constantly. Except for 17th May, when it was grounded in Cairo from 03h00 a.m. (arr from Paris) till 10h00 a.m. (dep to Brussels). That gap was maybe for planned maintenance, maybe for a technical issue?
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/su-gcc

Regarding "the bomb": like I posted earlier: if someone places a bomb in an aircraft, wouldn't it be normal that he wants that the aircraft explodes shortly later (like the Metrojet A321 that crashed 23 minutes after take off)? However, this one flew 3 hours and 10 minutes after departure from Paris. Check the flight on Flightradar: if they would have left on time and if they would have taken off eastbound iso westbound, they would have been on final approach to CAI when the bomb exploded. Or perhaps just on the ground.

Therefore: if a bomb was put onboard in Paris, couldn't one expect that the aircraft would have exploded 2 hours earlier? If was a bomb with just a time mechanism off course.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... cc#9c0b766

The only thing we know so far for sure, is that the Egyptian authorities are unreliable.

(edited -> double phrase)
In previous bombings, waaaaaay back in time, preference was sometimes given by terrorists to wait until the aircraft was over water as it is way more difficult to find evidence. In that way an organisation can claim the attack but details of when/how can remain concealed.

Passenger
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by Passenger »

Update Aviation Herald:

On May 20th morning Egypt's Military announced, Egyptian naval aircraft and vessels found debris from the A320 aircraft as well as personal belongings of passengers about 290km (156nm) north of Alexandria (Egypt).

Apuneger
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by Apuneger »

Indeed, Egyptair posted the following statement on its Twitter account, about 46m ago:
The Egyptian Armed Forces have informed EGYPTAIR that they have found first debris from the missing aircraft operating flight MS804 #MS804
https://twitter.com/EGYPTAIR/status/733596751354036224

Best regards;
Ivan
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Passenger
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by Passenger »

Rumours are that the Aircraft Conditioning Monitoring System has sent some serious ECAM warnings during the last three minutes before the aircraft disappeared from radar:

00:26 Smoke Lavatory Smoke
00:27 Avionics Smoke
00:29 Auto Flight FCU 2 Fault
00:29 Flight Control SEC 3 Fault


sean1982
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by sean1982 »

Passenger wrote:Rumours are that the Aircraft Conditioning Monitoring System has sent some serious ECAM warnings during the last three minutes before the aircraft disappeared from radar:

00:26 Smoke Lavatory Smoke
00:27 Avionics Smoke
00:29 Auto Flight FCU 2 Fault
00:29 Flight Control SEC 3 Fault
If this were true, I would very much doubt an explosion. An airplane doesnt stay in one piece for 3 min after a bomb goes off

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lumumba
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by lumumba »

sean1982 wrote:
Passenger wrote:Rumours are that the Aircraft Conditioning Monitoring System has sent some serious ECAM warnings during the last three minutes before the aircraft disappeared from radar:

00:26 Smoke Lavatory Smoke
00:27 Avionics Smoke
00:29 Auto Flight FCU 2 Fault
00:29 Flight Control SEC 3 Fault
If this were true, I would very much doubt an explosion. An airplane doesnt stay in one piece for 3 min after a bomb goes off
It's maybe somebody that enters the cockpit....
Hasta la victoria siempre.

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lumumba
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by lumumba »

pitrixplanespotting wrote:My picture:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/131777893 ... otostream/
Taken 23 aug. 2015 At Brussels Airport Approach runway 19
I took this plane a couple of months ago from Cairo to Brussels...
Hasta la victoria siempre.

Passenger
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by Passenger »

Update Aviation Herald:

On May 20th 2016 The Aviation Herald received information from three independent channels, that ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System) messages with following content were received from the aircraft:

00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
00:27Z 2600 AVIONICS SMOKE
00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT
no further ACARS messages were received

Source:
http://avherald.com/h?article=4987fb09&opt=0

Poiu
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by Poiu »

lumumba wrote:
sean1982 wrote:
Passenger wrote:Rumours are that the Aircraft Conditioning Monitoring System has sent some serious ECAM warnings during the last three minutes before the aircraft disappeared from radar:

00:26 Smoke Lavatory Smoke
00:27 Avionics Smoke
00:29 Auto Flight FCU 2 Fault
00:29 Flight Control SEC 3 Fault
If this were true, I would very much doubt an explosion. An airplane doesnt stay in one piece for 3 min after a bomb goes off
It's maybe somebody that enters the cockpit....
Somebody entering the cockpit to make smoke in the lavatory, seriously?
It starts to look as an electrical problem which led to a löss of control.

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lumumba
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by lumumba »

Poiu wrote:
lumumba wrote:
sean1982 wrote:
If this were true, I would very much doubt an explosion. An airplane doesnt stay in one piece for 3 min after a bomb goes off
It's maybe somebody that enters the cockpit....
Somebody entering the cockpit to make smoke in the lavatory, seriously?
It starts to look as an electrical problem which led to a löss of control.
Looks like,I just wanna point out that a terrorist attack without a bomb is also possible.
Hasta la victoria siempre.

Bralo20
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by Bralo20 »

While everyone is focussing on the smoke issues in the ACARS messages it's more interesting to see that the first problem was located in the right side cockpit windows.

Virtually at the same time the computer registers a problem with the right side cockpit window, since it registers 3 faults at the same time it might suggest that the integrity of the window was breached at that point. The "smoke" registration could be because of the sudden breach which probably caused a significant amount of dust and thus setting off the smoke detection near the area where the hull was breached. Since the ACARS messages didn't include seconds or hundreds of seconds it's quite possible that all events registered at 00:26 and 00:27 hours happened at the same time thus giving a global problem with the right side cockpit windows, the avionics bay below the cockpit and the lavatory behind the cockpit (generally the complete cockpit area).

All those ACARS entries are suggesting a sudden catastrophic event that happened around 00:26 hours and not a (rapidly) gradually worsening event. If we take into account that the initial event probably happened around the 00h26m5xs mark then the whole event took only about 2, maximum 3 minutes before the plane was completely lost. An (electrical) fire followed by a catastrophic failure would take (much) longer then 3 minutes...

So imho the initial cause of is a sudden catastrophic structural failure. Wetter that structural failure was due an explosive device or not will have to be checked when the fuselage is found, the ACARS messages are helping to point the area where the initial event happened at the right side in/under (very unlikely but: outside) the cockpit.

I guess we'll have to wait until they find the fuselage and the cvr/fdr but at this point after reading the ACARS messages I doubt it was a fire that caused the incident.

Bralo20
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by Bralo20 »

Following the ACARS messages I think the area with the red circle is the approximate vicinity where the initial event started... I can be wrong but the ACARS messages are quite specific and this specific area can work in the case of a structural failure but it can also work in the case of an explosive device since that panel can be opened from the outside and I doubt it will be ever checked during a walk around (I don't think I ever saw someone open it during a walk around)
6312829920_819784b2e2_bkopie.jpg

Just my 2 cents...

flightlover
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by flightlover »

Bralo20 wrote:Following the ACARS messages I think the area with the red circle is the approximate vicinity where the initial event started... I can be wrong but the ACARS messages are quite specific and this specific area can work in the case of a structural failure but it can also work in the case of an explosive device since that panel can be opened from the outside and I doubt it will be ever checked during a walk around (I don't think I ever saw someone open it during a walk around)
6312829920_819784b2e2_bkopie.jpg

Just my 2 cents...
A walk around is done to confirm all doors and hatches are sealed before take off. No doors will be opened at that time as this will be done just before the departure.

For the example of the A320, to open and enter this specific hatch you will need a step to reach it.

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sn26567
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by sn26567 »

Bralo20 wrote:Following the ACARS messages I think the area with the red circle is the approximate vicinity where the initial event started... I can be wrong but the ACARS messages are quite specific and this specific area can work in the case of a structural failure but it can also work in the case of an explosive device since that panel can be opened from the outside and I doubt it will be ever checked during a walk around (I don't think I ever saw someone open it
Nice theory, Bralo20. But it is strange that nobody else mentions the ACARS messages other than those about smoke. If you look at the press, they only concentrate on those smoke issues. And even from specialists we don't hear anything else. Why such omissions? Your theory is quite a real possibility.

We'll have to wait for more information from the black boxes or from other debris to know more, I guess.
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by SN22667 »

Has there been any further investigation about the presence of Volcanic Ash ?

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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by sn26567 »

CBS has just announced that the black boxes have been retrieved. Rather surprising since little else seems to have been found, except for some seats and suitcases.
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Poiu
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Re: EgyptAir Flight MS804 CDG-CAI disappears above the Mediterranean

Post by Poiu »

sn26567 wrote:CBS has just announced that the black boxes have been retrieved. Rather surprising since little else seems to have been found, except for some seats and suitcases.
Found or located? Located is not that surprinsing with the huilt in transmitter.

A fire of the EFB could be a possibility.

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