Impact security situation Brussels & Belgium on BRU

[DannyVDB]

Hi all,

Want to start this new topic since it deserves a separate one:

What do you think will be the impact of the current security threat in Brussels (and Belgium) on the results of the airport of Brussels, Brussels Airlines, ... ?

I saw yesterday that there are many tourists cancelling trips (overnight stays), even to Flanders ... (drops from 20-50% in occupancy rates in small and big hotels). So I think this will also be reflected in the figures of BRU and the airlines operating at Brussels (and Charleroi), no?

My forecast is that growth will be 'flat' since the Paris attacks were on 13/11, so probably figures are impacted from that date onwards. For SN I expect still a growth at BRU, but < 10%.

I also think it has a 'long term' impact in the sense that people might continue to think Belgium is not safe and a 'heaven' for the bad guys.

What are your thoughts on this?

Kind regards,
Danny

[b720]

add to that a number of Belgians have cancelled trips abroad since last week.. I know a few..
General feeling of insecurity tends to ground people.

[Acid-drop]

The problem isn't so much the terrorist risk, but the fact that, by keeping the stress level high for a long period, our gouvernement officialize its unability to understand and control the situation.
They block the country and its capital for almost one week, and they show abolutely no result from it.

So as a belgian i'm very worried that nobody takes care of my security yes, and i plan to reduce my movements for sure. Within the country and also for international travels. I would also understand that our christmas markets won't atract many tourists this year (we talk about millions). It's very sad for everyone but better be safe than sorry.

The damage to our image will be huge and, i'm afraid, will last long.

[Passenger]

The problem isn't so much the terrorist risk, but the fact that, by keeping the stress level high for a long period, our gouvernement officialize its unability to understand and control the situation. They block the country and its capital for almost one week, and they show abolutely no result from it.

I don't think it's fait to blame the government for this ongoing high level of security. They just execute what the Belgian Coordination Unit for Threat Assessment (CUTA) decides.

EN:
http://www.comiteri.be/index.php/en/39- ... assessment

NL:
http://www.comiteri.be/index.php/nl/19- ... ngsanalyse

FR:
http://www.comiteri.be/index.php/fr/34- ... -la-menace

[airazurxtror]

After another crisis - I think it was after the 9/11 at New York - Michael O'Leary said to the Airlines :
"Drop your prizes, and you'll be amazed how demand comes back"
and of the customers :
"They might be scared of flying for 200 euros return, but they'll be a lot less scared flying at 20 euros return."

As for me , I certainly won't abandon the flights I've already booked, and moreover I intend to take full advantage of the bargains probably soon to be offered !

Another advice from the same : "Generally, the best time to visit anywhere is after a terrorist attack because the hotels are discounting like mad and the place is crawling with security".

[b720]

Yes, but not all about bargains... Who wants to fly to Baghdad unless they really need to be there?
Even if there is no real danger, why would anyone want to spend their hard earned money visiting a city under stress...most activities curbed or cancelled.. many shops and resto closed, and general atmosphere negative? You save your money, and wait till things go back to normal.
We are talking about people planning to visit Belgium, and cancelled. The effect on the hotels in Brussels, and far away provinces seems to be significant. Keep in mind that news abroad is often inflated, people abroad are under the impression that Brussels, and Belgium in general, are NOT safe for the moment. The longer we remain a hot topic on CNN, BBC, etc.. the greater the negative effect. SN and BRU and most airlines serving BRU will eventually see a drop in bookings.

[jan_olieslagers]

I don't think it's fait to blame the government for this ongoing high level of security. They just execute what the Belgian Coordination Unit for Threat Assessment (CUTA) decides.

Sorry, but that's rubbish. The coordination unit is there to assess and to coordinate. The government is there to decide, and indeed to govern.

[jan_olieslagers]

Generally, the best time to visit anywhere is after a terrorist attack because the hotels are discounting like mad and the place is crawling with security

Confirm. On Monday last 23rd, myself and also a foreign pilot friend were at work in the heart of Brussels - we both observed quiet, and could go our ways in peace and in safety.

[jan_olieslagers]

as a belgian i'm very worried that nobody takes care of my security

Do you really believe they took more care about you last year? Yet last year you freely went your ways?
Perhaps your last year's feeling of security was only blissful ignorance?

[b720]

No one can guarantee your security when any mad person can make a small bomb at home and detonate it somewhere in public, or another mad one using a machine gun like in Paris or Norway a few years back. The police can guarantee you a certain sense of security, and they can catch or kill those who commit mass murder on the streets... That is the case in Belgium and elsewhere.
No one can guarantee anything, neither here nor elsewhere.

[Acid-drop]

as a belgian i'm very worried that nobody takes care of my security

Do you really believe they took more care about you last year? Yet last year you freely went your ways?
Perhaps your last year's feeling of security was only blissful ignorance?

I agree with you. Nothing changed. You know it and I know it. But now the whole world knows they are clowns.
I've had this week people from the other side of the planet asking me how belgium is doing. Their feeling was a mix between the Bronx and Bagdad. The damage to our image is absolutelly huge.

[Passenger]

No one can guarantee your security when any mad person can make a small bomb at home and detonate it somewhere in public, or another mad one using a machine gun like in Paris or Norway a few years back. The police can guarantee you a certain sense of security, and they can catch or kill those who commit mass murder on the streets... That is the case in Belgium and elsewhere. No one can guarantee anything, neither here nor elsewhere.

It's good to read some realism here. I agree with b720: we have a certain level of safety, and that is what matters.

Furthermore, not many people here seem to realize that tourists need more then just safety/security to travel. Much more important is the holiday feeling - het vakantiegevoel. As a foreign tourist, you can't have that in Belgiums today: Belgium is the supplier of the Paris terrorists. Yes, tourists who have paid their trip will come: it's looks safe with the police out on the Streets, and they loose their money if the cancel. But are new bookings for the next weekend are coming in like before? Nope.

Luckily, time heals wounds. Tourists forget. Just like Belgian tourists have returned to Luxor/Egypt and Nairobi/Kenya, foreign tourists will also return to Paris and Brussels.

[brusselsairlinesfan]

Any drop seen in SN bookings since the attacks in Paris & Brussels 4th level cat. threats?

[Passenger]

Any drop seen in SN bookings since the attacks in Paris & Brussels 4th level cat. threats?

Why only Brussels Airlines? The majority of its passengers are Belgians citizens and not foreign tourists who could eventually cancel their visit to Belgium. Belgians know what level 3 and 4 mean. They go to work. They go shopping. They go to the movies. They go out for dinner. They use public transport. They go to the airport.

Same applies for "BRU": why is this only about Brussels Airport?

[sean1982]

I think its to early to see a drop in bookings as most people book long in advance, and the people who dont are business men who have to fly anyway. Business aint stopping for a terror threat level.

What's a better indicator is how many "no shows" there are at the moment.

[airazurxtror]

Currently , it seems that no one is able to quantify the decline in passenger numbers at Brussels.
From two usually reliable sources : Brussels Airport would have recorded a decline of just under 20% in the recent weeks , mainly on the incoming European lines .
The number of bookings for the coming weeks and months would have declined by 15 to 20 % , according to the same sources.

[Inquirer]

I think its to early to see a drop in bookings as most people book long in advance, and the people who dont are business men who have to fly anyway. Business aint stopping for a terror threat level.

I agree long term forward looking bookings will probably not be affected at present yet, but I have to disagree with you on the second part of your comment, Sean.

Here at work, with or EUR HQ located in Brussels, everybody has been given the option of working from home for 2 days and so all business meetings for the week were immediately rescheduled as a consequence. Since I know for a fact we were definitely not the only HQ in BRU doing this, there will definitely be a negative effect on the figures of airport, airlines and all that goes with it (hotels, taxis, restaurants) as many business trips did get rearranged.

Whether the impact of it will be massive and long lived, I doubt it, but it definitely won't have been helpful and it will -at the very least- make a temporary dent in the growth curve of the airport if the situation doesn't last for too long as it means a resheduling of meetings and trips to next week then.
If it lasts much longer than that it's simply going to be a loss as the year's end is quite near and many of the meetings will be concluded by telco or simply rolled over to and combined with an already scheduled meeting early next year then.

Contrary to what you say, international business is very much affected by a significant terror threat: I understand you have no on hands experience in a global corporate business environment and are more private travel/tourist oriented, but you'd really be amazed by the immediate (over)reaction from say Americans or Australians to the whole situation in Belgium.
In simple terms: troops on the street to kill terrorists on the run = warzone = no go.
Simple as that.

As to your remark about the 'no shows', I take it that is the ryanair equivalent of a refund/resheduling at a normal business oriented airline? I think that when the option to refund/reshedule isn't available, people will be less likely to postpone their travel plans, but in contrast, will be more reluctant to book firmly.

It's good the level has been lowered to 3 again and a return to an albeit vigilant normality has begun, because keeping security at level 4 for much longer was going to make it very painful very quickly for many travel related businesses and our very open economy.

[Boeing767copilot]

Currently , it seems that no one is able to quantify the decline in passenger numbers at Brussels.
From two usually reliable sources : Brussels Airport would have recorded a decline of just under 20% in the recent weeks , mainly on the incoming European lines .
The number of bookings for the coming weeks and months would have declined by 15 to 20 % , according to the same sources.

Which sources, you can share them?

[sean1982]

Inquirer,

With no shows I mean people who have paid for the booking but dont show up at the airport without changing their ticket. To my knowledge that number has remained quite stable here.

A quick check of the LF today is an average of 90% for BRU which is also normal for a friday

[sn26567]

Currently , it seems that no one is able to quantify the decline in passenger numbers at Brussels.
From two usually reliable sources : Brussels Airport would have recorded a decline of just under 20% in the recent weeks , mainly on the incoming European lines.

From my information 'Mr. Bontinck, head of visitbrussels.be, the Brussels Tourism Office), there were 15% more passengers at BRU before 13 November (as compared to 2014), and the number of passengers now has come back to its 2014 level. One can thus consider the impact of the terror threat at 15%.