BRU pax operations: the future

[DannyVDB]

Hi all,

I start a new topic since I think there is some information, notably from CAPA that deserves more attention.

If this is dicussed somewhere else, please feel free to delete / omit ...

What about further developments at BRU. I found some of the information from CAPA very interesting, see
http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/b ... ons-246706

Certain things strike me:

1.

... there is even talk of Etihad equity partner Jet Airways' launching a Kolkata-Brussels service

Anybody knows about this. If correct this would mean that JetAirways could stay for a long time ... I would also be surprised abouth the destination itself.

2.

There was no service to the third Gulf hub, Dubai, until Emirates' entry into BRU in Sep-2014. Emirates, which carries 230,000 passengers on the route in its first year, now has more weekly seats, but fewer frequencies, to/from Brussels than either of its two Gulf rivals.

If this is really the number of pax for the first 12 months, that would mean around 88% load factor (but I think they started the first flights with a A345, so it would even be higher. Anyone knows more about that? So I think there might soon be a need for additional frequencies and/or bigger aircraft.

3. [Not mentioned in CAPA] Besides these potential developments I hear about the possible developments at SN with some new destinations to Africa (Lagos-Libreville) and maybe also to North-America (Boston & Montreal).

Any other additional destinations that you read/heard of (not what you would like to see), but rumours from the coffee-table , written somewhere, ...

Cheers,
Danny

[Atlantis]

Hi Danny,

Jet Airways will not leave that quickly the BRU tarmac. It's showen already if they want to start up flights via AMS that they only speak about one single destination. That's not creating a hub. If Etihad and Jet Airways are thinking to open a new link to BRU then we only can welcome this. But as from the moment, no indication or no real indication for this. But in aviation it can go fast as you know.

Emirates didn't started their flights to BRU with an A345 but with a B772 but very fast they upgraded it to a daily B773.
Emirates indeed confirmed that they would like to fly much more to BRU. One daily flight is too less for them and they are eager to upgrade it fast. They have let know to fly twice a day to BRU but also that they want to fly with their A380 to BRU.
BRU listened to their wishes and they take actions for this. There will become power units for the A380, tow bars and there is now a tender for daily flights of the A380 to BRU. So, soon we will know more about this.

About SN: I think that in the next coming months, December and January, will be released much more about new destinations for them and about the increase of their fleet. We all believe that 2016 will be a very interesting year, a very busy year because a lot of projects are in the pipeline

[Acid-drop]

Emirates needs more frequencies, not an a380...
The flight schedule isnt that great, you land in dubai quite late, if you have to start your day early the next morning its not easy.
Same thing from DUS though :/ (and AMS with klm)

[RoMax]

Emirates needs more frequencies, not an a380...
The flight schedule isnt that great, you land in dubai quite late, if you have to start your day early the next morning its not easy.

They don't care about how fresh you are to start your working day in Dubai, they care about optimising the number of transfer options in Dubai and for that the current schedule is not that bad at all.

[BRU]

Emirates: due to traffic right restrictions they can not go to a second flight without a new bilateral agreement. Expect them to go to an A380 somewhere in 2017, as the airport advised they need around 18 months to be ready for scheduled operations.

Jet Airways: expect them to announce soon they will quit BRU for AMS, starting already early next year. They will connect India with AMS, KLM and Delta will take their passengers to multiple US destinations out of AMS.

[HQ_BRU_Lover]

Emirates: due to traffic right restrictions they can not go to a second flight without a new bilateral agreement. Expect them to go to an A380 somewhere in 2017, as the airport advised they need around 18 months to be ready for scheduled operations.

Their schedule is one of the best around in Europe: you can catch nearly any of their connections at DXB.

Jet Airways: expect them to announce soon they will quit BRU for AMS, starting already early next year. They will connect India with AMS, KLM and Delta will take their passengers to multiple US destinations out of AMS.

I expect them to modify their BRU-plan exactly in the way you've explained it. Hopefully we can keep a DEL-BRU-DEL or BOM-BRU-BOM route, I think that would be the best deal we can get.The gap on the US market (if there is one...) will be filled by UA/AA/DL and SN.

[nordikcam]

Emirates: due to traffic right restrictions they can not go to a second flight without a new bilateral agreement. Expect them to go to an A380 somewhere in 2017, as the airport advised they need around 18 months to be ready for scheduled operations.

Their schedule is one of the best around in Europe: you can catch nearly any of their connections at DXB.

Jet Airways: expect them to announce soon they will quit BRU for AMS, starting already early next year. They will connect India with AMS, KLM and Delta will take their passengers to multiple US destinations out of AMS.

I expect them to modify their BRU-plan exactly in the way you've explained it. Hopefully we can keep a DEL-BRU-DEL or BOM-BRU-BOM route, I think that would be the best deal we can get.The gap on the US market (if there is one...) will be filled by UA/AA/DL and SN.

Maybe Air INDIA AI, *A member now, could enter the market...what do u tink about ?

[Conti764]

Why not SN? If the flights are successful enough for 9W to keep, they could be for SN as wel..

[crew1990]

Why not SN? If the flights are successful enough for 9W to keep, they could be for SN as wel..

As far as I know, if the rumor are right, this would be indeed SN which would fly to India is Jetairways would stop the routes. Those routes would be the same kind of scheduled than the other long haul routes of SN it would perfectly fit in the network actually.

[RoMax]

After all these years of having Delhi and Mumbai well connected with BRU and SN's Europe network, I think indeed it would be a very good idea of SN to jump into that market themselves IF Jet leaves BRU.

Same with UA/SN to upgrade the New York-BRU market and for AC/SN to jump into YYZ-BRU.

[Conti764]

It would present a nice oportunity for both SN and *A to increase their presence at BRU... SN taking over 9W's Indian ops, SN and/or UA expanding TATL...

[RoMax]

It would present a nice oportunity for both SN and *A to increase their presence at BRU... SN taking over 9W's Indian ops, SN and/or UA expanding TATL...

Don't forget AC, which I see as a good candidate for YYZ (possibly switching from YUL, leaving that route to SN as a more natural operator, although I'm not so sure AC is so eager to give up YUL-BRU despite the fact that they are in a joint-venture).

[Airbus A330]

Is there any plan or rumor about UA starting IAH - BRU and/or SFO - BRU

[RoMax]

Is there any plan or rumor about UA starting IAH - BRU and/or SFO - BRU

I only heard BRU-IAH by UA is high on the list for both BRU and SN.

[sn26567]

there is some information, notably from CAPA that deserves more attention.

If this is dicussed somewhere else, please feel free to delete / omit ...

What about further developments at BRU. I found some of the information from CAPA very interesting, see
http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/b ... ons-246706

The CAPA article on Brussels Airport had already been mentioned twice before:

https://www.aviation24.be/forums/viewtopic ... 80#p323233
https://www.aviation24.be/forums/viewtopic ... 60#p323148

Readers who want further input on that topic can consult these two threads!

But never mind, let's keep this one open as well, as it leads to interesting discussions.

[nordikcam]

Why not SN? If the flights are successful enough for 9W to keep, they could be for SN as wel..

Of course...beter to see SN than AI...but let dream...

BRU DEL BRU = one aircraft
BRU BOM BRU = one aircraft
BRU LOS LBV 4/W + BRU YUL BRU 4/w + BRU BOS BRU 5/W = 2 aircraft...

It's not a dream...it's a big dream ! No ?

[crew1990]

Why not SN? If the flights are successful enough for 9W to keep, they could be for SN as wel..

Of course...beter to see SN than AI...but let dream...

BRU DEL BRU = one aircraft
BRU BOM BRU = one aircraft
BRU LOS LBV 4/W + BRU YUL BRU 4/w + BRU BOS BRU 5/W = 2 aircraft...

It's not a dream...it's a big dream ! No ?

Nobody said that brussels airlines would open all those routes at once, it was just to name the potential destinations!

[Airbus A330]

I only heard BRU-IAH by UA is high on the list for both BRU and SN.

It would be great!
Thanks, RoMax!

[Conti764]

Why not SN? If the flights are successful enough for 9W to keep, they could be for SN as wel..

Of course...beter to see SN than AI...but let dream...

BRU DEL BRU = one aircraft
BRU BOM BRU = one aircraft
BRU LOS LBV 4/W + BRU YUL BRU 4/w + BRU BOS BRU 5/W = 2 aircraft...

It's not a dream...it's a big dream ! No ?

Nobody said they should open up all these routes at once...

African expansion is a given, since it still is the bread an butter of SN. The mentioned destinations are already rumoured, also on this forum.

However, if 9W abandons BRU, SN shouldn't wait for too long if it wants to take over the Brussels-India market if they don't want to loose too many pax. I'm confident that LH rather has SN have a go at it in stead of rerouting loyal customers through FRA, since the latter scenario would mean a surrender to AFKL and a loss of pax to the new KLM/Delta/Jet Airways construction...

It would also mean that the A++ joint-venture needs to step up it's acitivities across the pond by reinforcing it's presence at BRU (UA, SN, AC) and upgrading India-Germany traffic equipment on LH...

SN might go double daily to JFK, next to UA going double daily on EWR and/or upgrading EWR to a 77W and it might finally mean SN opening up BOS and going to YUL while AC reinforces YYZ...

If UA might open up IAH one day, you have quite a nice portfolio from BRU to the USA, of course not to the extend of the KL/DL combo at AMS, but sufficient to sustain a profitable USA-BRU-India market...

[convair]

Good idea to have created this topic.

We cannot expect BRU to compete with its big neighbours; however I believe it would be interesting for them to look at what airports of similar size are doing. Take Vienna e.g. Decades ago, it used to be THE transit point between Eastern and Western Europe. Now, more than 25 years after the fall of the Berlin wall, it looks like some airlines of Western Europe haven't fully realized it yet: they still aren't serving many Eastern Europe destinations and Vienna is still enjoying the advantages of a (kind of) priviledged geographic position. I believe BRU has a potential that is at least as big as that of VIE and Belgium is slightly more populated than Austria, which, however, has the advantage of having several regional hubs (Salsburg, Graz, Innsbruck, Linz, Klagenfurt) distant enough from each other to justify airline connections (at an additional cost to manage them of course).

I have not seen traffic data on VIE but if you compare Austrian with SN, OS is about 1.5 the size of SN in terms of fleet and pax. But OS serves a lot more destinations in (Eastern and Western) Europe and in the Middle East. On long-haul they concentrate on 5 N-A and 4 Asia destinations with their 11 aircraft.
SN has grown at double digit for more than a year now. IMHO more new destinations to the East could help it keep the pace.