Russia threatens to ban all Western airlines

[Flanker2]

Russia's PM Medvedev has stated that Russia will ban all Western airlines from entering its airspace as a response if the new sanctions go ahead.

This prompted the EU ambassadors to come together again today in an unplanned reunion, as it will have disastrous consequences for many European airlines, including Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, British Airways but also smaller carriers like SK, AY, AZ, IB.
Now Van Rompuy is singing "een toontje lager" as the Flemish say and the EU is reviewing whether the ceasefire in Ukraine has solid foundations, so that these new European sanctions can be avoided.

Hundreds of flights to Asia every week from Britain and other European countries face disruption following a threat by Russia to close its airspace to Western carriers in response to new European Union sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.

The move, which would increase costs for passengers by forcing airlines to revert to more circuitous routes used during the Cold War, was signalled by Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's prime minister, as the EU prepared to publish a detailed list of companies and individuals to face restrictions on their dealings with Europe.

Mr Medvedev told the Vedomosti newspaper: "I hoped that our partners would be smarter. If there are sanctions related to energy, or further limits for our financial sector, we will have to respond asymmetrically.
"We proceed from the fact that we have friendly relations with our partners and that is why the sky over Russia is open for flights. But if they put limits on us we will have to respond."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -West.html

http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/942/Economie/a ... ties.dhtml

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 18897.html

My opinion: our ministers are clowns and they're playing with fire.

[Flanker2]

RT news with more details:

Flying over Russian airspace saves Western airlines headed to Asia at least 4 hours of flight time, which adds up to about $30,000 per flight.

Lufthansa said it could potentially lose more than €1 billion in three months if it does not use Russian airspace. Lufthansa, along with British Airways and Air France, are the largest EU airlines. US airlines currently don't operate over Siberian airspace.

Many low-cost airlines have decided not to launch new routes to Russia, with the threat of sanctions possibly a factor. Last week Ryanair ditched plans to establish a Dublin-St. Petersburg route, and easyJet, another European-based airline, dropped its plans to develop a London-St. Petersburg service.

Medvedev didn’t specify whether the blocked airspace would also apply to cargo and delivery companies, such as UPS and FedEx.

http://rt.com/business/185924-sanctions ... -medvedev/

[andorra-airport]

US airlines currently don't operate over Siberian airspace.

It seems there are still some "Americans" who overfly Siberia. I remember Delta had many too ??

[Flanker2]

Interesting. I didn't know that AY had such a huge presence in Asia, more than BA.
However, if I understand well, this is only for the Transsiberian flights, without counting the O&D flights and all the flights that fly over Southern Russia like LHR/FRA-DEL.
Let's also not forget SN and its flights to DME.

It will be really interesting to see whether the EU sanctions will be enforced.
It will also be interesting to see whether the counter-sanctions will extend to Japanese carriers.

It seems there are still some "Americans" who overfly Siberia. I remember Delta had many too ??

That's weird.
One weekly AA flight?
UA perhaps some routes to India?

[BrightCedars]

Not sure Russia based carriers could live long if the same sanction was legitimately imposed back on them, not to mention the Russian government dealing for long with a population deprived of fruits and Turkish breaks.

[b720]

They've got sunny Crimea now, and fruits flown in from that region, southern CIS states, and elsewhere..
I do not think that O&D flights to and from Russia will be affected though. Just the use of the Siberian airspace, as was the case during the USSR period.

[Inquirer]

Didn't the Russians threaten to do this last time too?
As far as i understood it, a large part of the money paid for those overflight rights goes straight to Aeroflot, so if they ban western airlines, it has a funding gap, which is why it didn't make it through, last time.
On top of that, it would pose some interesting questions, notably amongst Aeroflot's alliance partners KLM, Air France and alitalia on just how they have to work with Aeroflot as a partner, if they can't reach their hubs conveniently.

[Passenger]

On Monday evening, the European Union has indeed adopted new sanctions against Russia. However, the decision is not officially implemented as from today: the EU will now "...study the implementation of last Friday's cease-fire...". But at the same time, the EU added that implementation of Monday's new sanctions is just a matter of days.

Honnestly, I don't understand this. The Minsk Peace Plan from last Friday was for both the European Union and Russia an excellent way to end this escalation of sanctions. But seems hardline European politicians took over from real-politics.

Russia is known for its no nonsense policy. They have threatened to close airspace for EU-based airlines if the Russian oil industry would be hit by sanctions, and the EU has done so. As soon as the new sanctions are published, Russia will close its airspace for EU-carriers. This will be followed by the EU being closed for Russian airlines. We will probably see Minsk becoming a temporary hub for flights between western Europe and Russia.

Russian aviation will be hit by its own sanctions. But that is a cost Russia has decided to take: they really need to stop the one-sided attacks against its economy. Many Russian carriers however fly domestic or regional, and they can continue to do so. Flights from Russia to Turkey's holiday resorts don't have to cross EU airspace.

Furthermore, Russia also announced asymetric sanctions. We'll have to see if it ends with airspace restrictions.

[Flanker2]

Russia will probably still keep its skies open to non-EU/US airlines.
LH, BA, AF-KL wil have to rely on their Asian partners to operate their flights on their behalf, and the Asian partners won't make that cheap on them. If they operate the flights themselves, the detour will be no less than 15% on each flight, 20% if we add winds. This will hit payload as it pushes the aircraft to the limits of their range (especially West-bound), while dramatically increasing operating costs and requiring major rescheduling.
On a B77W flight from LHR to NRT, that would otherwise cost 150.000USD to operate, the new costs would be around 180.000 USD.

For AY the situation will be even more dramatic as the detour would be no less than 30%.
I think that this would be a death sentence for AY, unless they can immediately find a solution with their Asian OW partners.

Russia doesn't really mind about the Siberia-overflight royalties paid to SU, they will just support SU otherwise.

If Europe then bans Russian airlines from its skies, mostly SU, the next response from Moscow will probably be to cancel over 20 billion dollars worth of aircraft, engines and spares purchases, as well as a complete vehicle import ban for Europe and the U.S.
I don't exclude that they might seize the factories of European and American automakers situated in Russia.

Our politicians are going the wrong way. They should get closer to Russia and try to find a solution that works for all, not alleniate them to make our respective struggling economies struggle even more.
It's a lose-lose proposition and the public can't do anything about it.

[regi]

We do not understand Russian ( Chinese, Arab,...) economics because we don't understand their mentality, because we do not want to understand it.
It is a part of our western superiority, built into our genes, and mastered by the Anglo Saxon mentality.

small example:
Russia signed a deal with the Chinese construction company CCCC to build a bridge accross the Kerch Strait ( entrance of the Sea of Azov, but more importantly: a land link between Russia and Crimea )
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/747587
Cost: > 6 billion dollars. GLOP !
Russian unemployment? 800,000 refugees from Eastern Ukrain? "So be it, we buy a bridge from China."

Don't try to understand it, it is way above our head.

[Conti764]

Why always criticizing 'our' politicians and in the mean time throw flowers to the Moscow hypocrites?

Close EU airspace for Russian carriers. If they impose import bans on European cars, planes, whatever..., stop buying Russian gas -ouwch- and have the Dutch and others drill for more 'own' gas.

Unlike many seem to believe, pissing in their own plate, Russia could never win an economic war against the EU. Even before the Ukrainian crisis, the Russian economy was slowing down.

It's time the Russians know their place and Putin and the likes accept that Sovjet era is over forever. That's the real issue here, Russia trying to expand their influence again. They won't stop with Eastern Ukraine, like they didn't stop with Crimea.

[b720]

What would we all think if Russia starts meddling in the affairs of Spain for instance? Supporting Catalonia, or other troublesome regions within the EU? Furnishing them with weapons and cash? We are doing just that! Ukraine was a part of the USSR, shares history and culture with Russia. We can not take sides in a conflict that we simply do not understand, and have no business interfering in anyway. Some member countries of the EU rely almost completely on Russian Gas. If that gas flow stops, they freeze in winter, as simple as that. Dutch or British gas is extremely expensive to extract. Good luck securing from Libya, we already secure large amounts from Algeria.
The Russians have the right to bar their airspace as in response to our stupid sanctions. They are not threatening to cease air links with the EU, or any country that imposes sanctions on them. Flights between Russia and the EU will not be affected. They simply will bar the Siberian airspace to airlines registered in those countries that are imposing sanctions on Russia.

[Flanker2]

That's the real issue here, Russia trying to expand their influence again. They won't stop with Eastern Ukraine, like they didn't stop with Crimea.

I think that rather the reverse is true. Russia didn't disturb the peace that reigned in Ukraine until the Europeans and the U.S. instigated the Spring Revolution.

So actually the idiots in Brussels and Washington gave Russia the opportunity to take Crimea. If Europe and the U.S. would think and plan more before supporting revolutions, we wouldn't have the situations in Syria, Lybia, Ukraine, Iraq.

If they impose import bans on European cars, planes, whatever..., stop buying Russian gas

Are you nuts? I don't need to remind you the huge panic there is already in Belgium regarding the black-outs we're facing this winter. What do you think will happen if Russia closes the gas pipes to Europe? Even if Belgium doesn't import directly, it doesn't matter as we will be affected directly by price hikes on both gas and electricity, and indirectly by supply shortages to other countries.

Also, Belgium doesn't import gas directly from Russia, but via Netherlands.
Belgium will be the first to be affected if Russia stops supplying gas to the Netherlands, as the Netherlands will give priority to supply to its own territory. I'm not sure that the imports from Algeria alone will be able to cope with our demand, as demand for that will rise from other countries as well. Also, gas needs to be mixed in certain quantities, and gas from Algeria alone might be too rich for the boilers sold in Belgium.

What would we all think if Russia starts meddling in the affairs of Spain for instance? Supporting Catalonia, or other troublesome regions within the EU? Furnishing them with weapons and cash? We are doing just that! Ukraine was a part of the USSR, shares history and culture with Russia. We can not take sides in a conflict that we simply do not understand, and have no business interfering in anyway. Some member countries of the EU rely almost completely on Russian Gas. If that gas flow stops, they freeze in winter, as simple as that. Dutch or British gas is extremely expensive to extract. Good luck securing from Libya, we already secure large amounts from Algeria.
The Russians have the right to bar their airspace as in response to our stupid sanctions. They are not threatening to cease air links with the EU, or any country that imposes sanctions on them. Flights between Russia and the EU will not be affected. They simply will bar the Siberian airspace to airlines registered in those countries that are imposing sanctions on Russia.

Exactly. Our politicians have started this and are continuing this.
And guess who will end up paying the price? The hard-working middle-class of Europe, like always
Higher taxes and lower government services to compensate the lost harvest of fruit, vegetables and dairy farmers, higher gas and electricty prices if Russia cuts us off, higher airline fares to go to Asia, etc...
Personally, I'm fed up to pay for the incompetence of our useless politicians.

[Stij]

Please change your vector back into the direction of aviation for noise abatement reasons...

You don't want to hear the noise of me clicking on the "close discussion"-button.

Thank-you for your corporation,

Stij

[mooney058]

We do not understand Russian ( Chinese, Arab,...) economics because we don't understand their mentality, because we do not want to understand it.
It is a part of our western superiority, built into our genes, and mastered by the Anglo Saxon mentality.

small example:
Russia signed a deal with the Chinese construction company CCCC to build a bridge accross the Kerch Strait ( entrance of the Sea of Azov, but more importantly: a land link between Russia and Crimea )
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/747587
Cost: > 6 billion dollars. GLOP !
Russian unemployment? 800,000 refugees from Eastern Ukrain? "So be it, we buy a bridge from China."

Don't try to understand it, it is way above our head.

You understand or want to understand russian mentality or economics? oh my god - explain me winter olympics - more expensive than more Beijing and London summer olympics combined... and summer olympics are usualy more expensive to organise ... no Sochi was still more expensive than London and Beijing combined ... explain pls me economics ...

[Passenger]

Flights in Russian airspace on 01 Sept 2014 (source Flightradar.com, as requested by WSJ):

1. only the EU-carriers:
Lufthansa: 66
KLM: 38
Air France: 38
British Airways: 30
Finnair: 27
Czech Airlines: 21
SAS: 9
Easyjet: 4
WizzAir: 4

2. All carriers:
Lufthansa: 66
Air China: 49
KLM: 38
Air France: 38
Cathay Pacific: 34
Turkish Airlines: 32
British Airways: 30
China Southern Airlines: 29
Korean Air: 28
Finnair: 27
United Airlines: 26
Czech Airlines: 21
Delta Air Lines: 13
Thai Airways: 11
Eva Airways: 11
SAS: 9
Easyjet: 4
WizzAir: 4

[Conti764]

That's the real issue here, Russia trying to expand their influence again. They won't stop with Eastern Ukraine, like they didn't stop with Crimea.

I think that rather the reverse is true. Russia didn't disturb the peace that reigned in Ukraine until the Europeans and the U.S. instigated the Spring Revolution.

So actually the idiots in Brussels and Washington gave Russia the opportunity to take Crimea. If Europe and the U.S. would think and plan more before supporting revolutions, we wouldn't have the situations in Syria, Lybia, Ukraine, Iraq.

Since politics are not allowed in this topic, I refrain myself from debate. On a personal note tough, I'd like to add that I have a hard time understanding how people can sympatise with a country where xenofobia and homofobia are not only all around, but also accepted, supported and instigated by the government.

Maybe O/T, but just a side note on how I feel about the West being portrayed as irresponsible bullies and the Russians as poor bastards being threatened... I just hate the country.

If they impose import bans on European cars, planes, whatever..., stop buying Russian gas

Are you nuts? I don't need to remind you the huge panic there is already in Belgium regarding the black-outs we're facing this winter. What do you think will happen if Russia closes the gas pipes to Europe? Even if Belgium doesn't import directly, it doesn't matter as we will be affected directly by price hikes on both gas and electricity, and indirectly by supply shortages to other countries.

Also, Belgium doesn't import gas directly from Russia, but via Netherlands.
Belgium will be the first to be affected if Russia stops supplying gas to the Netherlands, as the Netherlands will give priority to supply to its own territory. I'm not sure that the imports from Algeria alone will be able to cope with our demand, as demand for that will rise from other countries as well. Also, gas needs to be mixed in certain quantities, and gas from Algeria alone might be too rich for the boilers sold in Belgium.

So, we just have to bend over and accept everything the Russians dictate? I've grown tired of hearing how Russia is so powerful and we are so dependant of them... Fact is that there are hardly any BRIC-countries left... The Russian economy was already slowing down before the Ukrain crisis and (at least threatening to) end buying Russian gas will have large consequences. We need Russian gas, they need our money.

I read that Russia would compensate Aeroflot for the lost royalties on overfly rights over Siberia, I read that Russia will invest billions into their own fruit and vegetables, I read how Russia will end 20 billion dollar deals over aircraft, spare parts, cars, etc. etc.

Well, everything ends one day and without money you will end up broke some day. The Russians might believe this won't happen to them, but it will.

What would we all think if Russia starts meddling in the affairs of Spain for instance? Supporting Catalonia, or other troublesome regions within the EU? Furnishing them with weapons and cash? We are doing just that! Ukraine was a part of the USSR, shares history and culture with Russia. We can not take sides in a conflict that we simply do not understand, and have no business interfering in anyway. Some member countries of the EU rely almost completely on Russian Gas. If that gas flow stops, they freeze in winter, as simple as that. Dutch or British gas is extremely expensive to extract. Good luck securing from Libya, we already secure large amounts from Algeria.
The Russians have the right to bar their airspace as in response to our stupid sanctions. They are not threatening to cease air links with the EU, or any country that imposes sanctions on them. Flights between Russia and the EU will not be affected. They simply will bar the Siberian airspace to airlines registered in those countries that are imposing sanctions on Russia.

Exactly. Our politicians have started this and are continuing this.
And guess who will end up paying the price? The hard-working middle-class of Europe, like always
Higher taxes and lower government services to compensate the lost harvest of fruit, vegetables and dairy farmers, higher gas and electricty prices if Russia cuts us off, higher airline fares to go to Asia, etc...

The Ukraine is a sovereign country which has to deal with their own issues. If Russia feels the people in Eastern Ukraine have the right on their own nation, it should allow the same to their own recalcitrant regions.

Personally, I'm fed up to pay for the incompetence of our useless politicians.

Maybe Igor and Svetlana are, too. At least you still have the right to openly express your opinion on a public forum. We all know how Russia deals with criticism: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassinat ... itkovskaya or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_ ... Litvinenko

[Conti764]

Please change your vector back into the direction of aviation for noise abatement reasons...

You don't want to hear the noise of me clicking on the "close discussion"-button.

Thank-you for your corporation,

Stij

This is politics.

[Flanker2]

Conti, what you and many people fail to grasp is that while we need Russia, Russia doesn't need us.


Ranking of most resource-rich countries
1. Russia
> Total resource value: $75.7 trillion
> Oil reserves (value): 60 billion barrels ($7.08 trillion)
> Natural gas reserves (value): 1,680 trillion cu. ft. ($19 trillion)
> Timber reserves (value): 1.95 billion acres ($28.4 trillion)

Russia is the world’s richest country when it comes to natural resources. It leads all other nations in the size of both its natural gas and timber reserves. The country’s vast size is both a blessing and a curse since economical transportation for gas (pipelines) and for timber (railroads) are significantly costly to build. In addition to having such large gas and timber reserves, Russia has the world’s second-largest deposits of coal and the third-largest deposits of gold. Additionally, it has the second-largest estimated deposits of rare earth minerals, although none are currently being mined.


http://247wallst.com/special-report/201 ... untries/3/

Cut-off everything between the West and Russia and Russia will do just fine.

I read those stupid comments on airliners.net.
"If Russia bans European airlines, then Europe will ban Russian airlines".
"SU will no longer be allowed to buy spares"
That makes me laugh.

Such sanctions will only be sanctions on paper!

SU leases most of its Airbus and Boeing equipment from European and American lessors. If it so wishes, SU can decide to no longer pay their leasing fees. For all they care, those aircraft can be used to continue to fly Asia where they can not be reposessed, or rot on some tarmac in Moscow. That will largely compensate for the costs of not being able to fly over Europe/U.S. and the loss of royalties. In the meanwhile, the lessors will go bankrupt one after the other.
And if SU still need more money, their shareholder has an unlimited amount of resources to harvest...
For spares, their friends from China will be very happy to provide them with any spares they need, while waiting for their own aircraft industry to kick-start.

However, what's going to happen to LH, AF-KL, BA, AY?
From one day to the other, dozens of aircraft will be flying long detours, costing them millions every day.
I don't even mention the environmental impact of those detours.
AY will probably go belly-up.
I remind you that these airlines don't have a shareholder that's the richest country in the world, and they're already struggling under pressure of competition from the Middle East and Asia.
You might as well remember that Europe doesn't favor national subsidies to airlines.

Obama and our European leaders are trying to build a trade war against Russia.
However, how are they going to win that when the biggest global trade is natural resources of which Russia has the most in the world? Wake up people, hello???

If our economies go down in this trade war, Russians will have firewood, oil, gold and all the farmland they want. We can then burn the Euro and US Dollar notes that will have the value of regular paper, eat our smartphones and Facebook accounts.

If you believe that our small sanctions will hurt a country sitting on 75 trillion dollars of natural resources, then you are living in a world of illusions, along with our leaders. I personally think that we have more to gain by being closer friends with Russia than the U.S.

I believe that there is more beneficial future in a EuRussia super-union than there is in NATO or whatever other alliance we have across the Atlantic. I believe that he U.S. is staging all of this in order to prevent the formation of EuRussia, which was the direction we were heading for.


http://temi.repubblica.it/limes-heartla ... russia/817

[Flanker2]

Conti, what you and many people fail to grasp is that while we need Russia, Russia doesn't need us.


Ranking of most resource-rich countries
1. Russia
> Total resource value: $75.7 trillion
> Oil reserves (value): 60 billion barrels ($7.08 trillion)
> Natural gas reserves (value): 1,680 trillion cu. ft. ($19 trillion)
> Timber reserves (value): 1.95 billion acres ($28.4 trillion)

Russia is the world’s richest country when it comes to natural resources. It leads all other nations in the size of both its natural gas and timber reserves. The country’s vast size is both a blessing and a curse since economical transportation for gas (pipelines) and for timber (railroads) are significantly costly to build. In addition to having such large gas and timber reserves, Russia has the world’s second-largest deposits of coal and the third-largest deposits of gold. Additionally, it has the second-largest estimated deposits of rare earth minerals, although none are currently being mined.


http://247wallst.com/special-report/201 ... untries/3/

Cut-off everything between the West and Russia and Russia will do just fine.

I read those stupid comments on airliners.net.
"If Russia bans European airlines, then Europe will ban Russian airlines".
"SU will no longer be allowed to buy spares"
That makes me laugh.

Such sanctions will only be sanctions on paper!

SU leases most of its Airbus and Boeing equipment from European and American lessors. If it so wishes, SU can decide to no longer pay their leasing fees. For all they care, those aircraft can be used to continue to fly Asia where they can not be reposessed, or rot on some tarmac in Moscow. That will largely compensate for the costs of not being able to fly over Europe/U.S. and the loss of royalties. In the meanwhile, the lessors will go bankrupt one after the other.
And if SU still need more money, their shareholder has an unlimited amount of resources to harvest...
For spares, their friends from China will be very happy to provide them with any spares they need, while waiting for their own aircraft industry to kick-start.

However, what's going to happen to LH, AF-KL, BA, AY?
From one day to the other, dozens of aircraft will be flying long detours, costing them millions every day.
I don't even mention the environmental impact of those detours.
AY will probably go belly-up.
I remind you that these airlines don't have a shareholder that's the richest country in the world, and they're already struggling under pressure of competition from the Middle East and Asia.
You might as well remember that Europe doesn't favor national subsidies to airlines.

Obama and our European leaders are trying to build a trade war against Russia.
However, how are they going to win that when the biggest global trade is natural resources of which Russia has the most in the world? Wake up people, hello???

If our economies go down in this trade war, Russians will have firewood, oil, gold and all the farmland they want. We can then burn the Euro and US Dollar notes that will have the value of regular paper, eat our smartphones and Facebook accounts.

If you believe that our small sanctions will hurt a country sitting on 75 trillion dollars of natural resources, then you are living in a world of illusions, along with our leaders. I personally think that we have more to gain by being closer friends with Russia than the U.S.

I believe that there is more beneficial future in a EuRussia super-union than there is in NATO or whatever other alliance we have across the Atlantic. I believe that he U.S. is staging all of this in order to prevent the formation of EuRussia, which was the direction we were heading for.


http://temi.repubblica.it/limes-heartla ... russia/817