Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

[Passenger]

Thomas Eric Duncan, the Ebola patient hospitalized in Dallas, is "fighting for his life," a top U.S. health official said on Sunday, a day after the man's condition worsened from serious to critical. "The man in Dallas is the only patient to develop Ebola in the United States," Dr. Tom Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta, told CNN's State of the Union. Frieden said in the affected parts of West Africa, where Ebola has killed more than 3,400 people, the disease is spreading so rapidly it is difficult for health officials to keep up.

Must be terrible for the medical staff at the Texas Health Presbytarian Hosital indeed. Ducan arrived in Texas on 20th September, and he went to the Emergency Service from that hospital on the 24th, clearly stating that he came from West Africa. Although he had multiple ebola symptoms, he was sent home with antibiotica only. Only after he collapsed on 28th September, he finally was hospitalized.

Anyway - for those who still believe that CNN's medical adviser Dr. Sanjay Gupta knows more about ebola then the ebola task force from the World Health Organization, here is some copy/paste from Dr. Gupta's statements on CNN.com:

Are the people who were on his flights at risk?
No. The Ebola virus spreads only when someone is exhibiting symptoms. This patient arrived in the United States on September 20, according to the CDC (Centre for Disease Control and Prevention), and didn't get sick until several days later. So he wasn't contagious on the flight. He was put in isolation at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital on September 28 and will not be released until he is free of the virus.

How can they be sure he wasn't sick earlier?
That's a fair question. They can't be 100% sure. But the first sign of Ebola is generally a high fever. And everyone leaving Liberia has their temperature checked before they're allowed to board a plane. Plus, health experts have said that anyone who is sick enough to be contagious probably doesn't feel well enough to travel in the first place.

[Passenger]

Dutch media report that their Schiphol patient is ebola-free...

[Flanker2]

Don't hold your breath though.
With increasing infections of Ebola, it will come to us as long as the commercial air bridge is maintained.

Passenger, I don't really care for infections on aircraft. I think that the main concern is that Ebola is being allowed to travel freely over the whole world, to make new casualties.
Even if we can stop the spread locally everytime it comes, the risk of making additional victims is not acceptable.

Also as Mr. Piot himself says, what if it spreads to India?
It's going to be a disaster.

Fortunately for you, who seem to take pleasure at this idea, Ebola is just one stop away from India.
And that stop is Brussels Airport.

According to recent articles, Belgium facilitated the spread of HIV from its source, in the 1920's.
Well, it looks like Belgium is going to do it all over again with Ebola.
Hurray! Hurray! Hurray!
If we can consider Ebola a bio-weapon, Belgium is providing the launching pad, and ISIS and Al Qaida look like relatively harmless teddybears.

But I say that all airlines should resume their operations to Ebola countries and even new ones should join.
If the time comes, the WHO, Dr. Piot and SN will save us with their magic powers, they are after all doing an excellent job fighting off Ebola, as evidenced by the reducing amount of infections

[Passenger]

Also as Mr. Piot himself says, what if it spreads to India? It's going to be a disaster

Glad to see that you read what doctor Piot (not "mister" Piot) says. Although... You haven't read it. Doctor Piot said that we urgently need to counter ebola before it can spread to India.

Trust you're referring to his interviews with The Guardian and/or Der Spiegel? If so, you must have read that doctor Piot also said that he's extremely happy that carriers like Brussels Airlines and Royal Air Maroc continue to fly to West Africa, to deliver both medical equipment and health workers? And you must have read that dr. Piot also said that the WHO ebola fighters need more medicaments, more logistical experts, more trucks, more 4x4 vehicles, more food?

[Flanker2]

Case Counts*

*Case counts updated in conjunction with the World Health Organization updates and are based on information reported by the Ministries of Health.

As of September 30, 2014
(Updated October 3, 2014)

Countries with outbreaks

Totals for Guinea, Liberia & Sierra Leone

Total Case Count: 7470
Total Deaths: 3431
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 4087
Guinea

Total Case Count: 1199
Total Deaths: 739
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 977
Liberia

Total Case Count: 3834
Total Deaths: 2069
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 931
Sierra Leone

Total Case Count: 2437
Total Case Deaths: 623
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 2179
Countries with localized transmission

Nigeria

Total Case Count: 20
Total Case Deaths: 8
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 19
Countries with travel-associated cases

Totals for Senegal and U.S.

Total Cases: 2
Total Deaths: 0
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 2
Senegal

Total Case Count: 1
Total Case Deaths: 0
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 1
United States*

*In a traveler from Liberia

Total Case Count: 1
Total Case Deaths: 0
Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 1

cdc.gov

[Passenger]

Dutch media report that their Schiphol patient is ebola-free...

Update : he has malaria.

[airazurxtror]

But I say that all airlines should resume their operations to Ebola countries and even new ones should join.

I agree.
Little small Brussels Airlines is left alone to spread the epidemic worlwide, without any help from the other European Airlines; Air France, British Airways et al. should be forced to do the same.

[sean1982]

Trust you're referring to his interviews with The Guardian and/or Der Spiegel? If so, you must have read that doctor Piot also said that he's extremely happy that carriers like Brussels Airlines and Royal Air Maroc continue to fly to West Africa, to deliver both medical equipment and health workers? And you must have read that dr. Piot also said that the WHO ebola fighters need more medicaments, more logistical experts, more trucks, more 4x4 vehicles, more food?

Thats gonna be quite the task trying to fit trucks and 4x4's in an A330?
All of this can be provided by special relief flights

(By the way, somebody on this forum is trying to log in with my username and password. Everytime I log in I get a message that the maximum amounts of log in has been used and I have to follow a procedure. What can I do about this?)

[Inquirer]

(By the way, somebody on this forum is trying to log in with my username and password. Everytime I log in I get a message that the maximum amounts of log in has been used and I have to follow a procedure. What can I do about this?)

I am trying to stay clear of this topic, because:
1- everything has been said and the same remarks keep getting reposted over and over again.
2- the propositions of several persons are driven not by facts, but by the expected consequences
3- the topic itself is no longer strictly aviation related.

However, I happen to have the very same experience every time I sign in since the website's server got some maintenance done to it some days agao, so I don't think anybody is actually trying to log in with your account like you think, but rather that there is some software problem.

[RoMax]

(By the way, somebody on this forum is trying to log in with my username and password. Everytime I log in I get a message that the maximum amounts of log in has been used and I have to follow a procedure. What can I do about this?)

However, I happen to have the very same experience every time I sign in since the website's server got some maintenance done to it some days agao, so I don't think anybody is actually trying to log in with your account like you think, but rather that there is some software problem.

Same with me.

[sean1982]

Allright, cool

[Bottie]

By the way, somebody on this forum is trying to log in with my username and password. Everytime I log in I get a message that the maximum amounts of log in has been used and I have to follow a procedure. What can I do about this?

Working on it, nobody is trying to use your account. You don't have to do anything, I'll come back to this when finished.

[FlightMate]

Passenger,

First-world countries have the logistic to send medical personnel and equipment, as well as the logistic to bring them back safely.

Airlines clearly don't.

Safety before profits, please!

[sean1982]

Haha, a bit like the "on site jobs" discussion .... "Some" only believe the experts they want to believe I suppose.

Ok then, cite me an Ebola/epidemic/health worker expert that explicitly calls to stop commercial flights to/from these countries to prevent the spreading of the disease.

As you wish


First university study that asks for commercial traffic to ebola countries to be severely reduced

http://m.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20141006_01305629

[Bottie]

By the way, somebody on this forum is trying to log in with my username and password. Everytime I log in I get a message that the maximum amounts of log in has been used and I have to follow a procedure. What can I do about this?

Working on it, nobody is trying to use your account. You don't have to do anything, I'll come back to this when finished.

Login-problems should be solved. If you have other remarks, please post them in :

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=54658

[Inquirer]

By the way, somebody on this forum is trying to log in with my username and password. Everytime I log in I get a message that the maximum amounts of log in has been used and I have to follow a procedure. What can I do about this?

Working on it, nobody is trying to use your account. You don't have to do anything, I'll come back to this when finished.

Login-problems should be solved. If you have other remarks, please post them in :

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=54658

Indeed: problem solved for me!
Thank you very much for your swift action.
:clap:

[RoMax]

Haha, a bit like the "on site jobs" discussion .... "Some" only believe the experts they want to believe I suppose.

Ok then, cite me an Ebola/epidemic/health worker expert that explicitly calls to stop commercial flights to/from these countries to prevent the spreading of the disease.

As you wish


First university study that asks for commercial traffic to ebola countries to be severely reduced

http://m.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20141006_01305629

The disadvantage of these mathematical models is that they do not really take into account the differences in abilities to handle infected people. Like other specialists say, of course people will spread to Europe, North America and the rest of the world (with or without aviation, they will!), but the chances these diseases develop into an epidemic in Europe or North America is very very very limited, a small outbreak would be stopped quite fast. In Asia on the other hand...would be another problem. But mind that many Chinese and Indian people do not travel via Brussels, but find other ways to get to Asia.

As has been said numerous times, aviation will not stop spreading Ebola, it might make things even worse as people find other ways of travel through countries/regions that are vulnurable for a new outbreak.

[sean1982]

Stop the spreading? No
Reduce the chance by 50%? Yes
That should be enough!

[Flanker2]

but the chances these diseases develop into an epidemic in Europe or North America is very very very limited, a small outbreak would be stopped quite fast

Every small outbreak will bring unnecessary casualties, among them children and pregant women. That alone is not an acceptable risk, as the trade-off will be human lives for commercial purposes.
The tragedy of the Dallas case is that Duncan probably infected 2 children, whom will show symptoms soon.

Also, even though Dr. Piot and others believe that Ebola can be isolated quite fast in Europe and N.A., it's almost influenza season, and you can't go around treating everybody as if they have Ebola.
Patients will see doctors, doctors will see other patients and transmit the disease from host to host.

The difference will be that until now it was one or two high profile case that came over from a high-risk country, so it was easy to isolate. But if they start coming by the dozen, it will become impossible to control each outbreak and soon people who haven't travelled to those ountries will become hosts and there will no longer be any easy way to triage people between the flu and Ebola until their symptoms worsen.
This will create a window of transmission, as it happened with the Dallas case.

In Asia on the other hand...would be another problem. But mind that many Chinese and Indian people do not travel via Brussels, but find other ways to get to Asia.

Chinese and Indian people will have to travel through BRU, as it's the most convenient way to get to India and China from affected countries since other airlines stopped their operations. India and China is now one-stop through BRU. With RAM it will be at least 2-stop.

As has been said numerous times, aviation will not stop spreading Ebola, it might make things even worse as people find other ways of travel through countries/regions that are vulnurable for a new outbreak

Not really, because the surrounding borders are mostly closed or very well guarded.
That's how that case that fled into Senegal got caught so fast.

Also, ground transportation is very different in Africa, it would take days to reach a neighboring country through small roads, which increases the chances of becoming symptomatic and getting caught or becoming too ill to continue travelling. For each travelling symptomatic patient, each border crossing becomes a challenge.
I also remind you that the situation in those countries and neighboring countries hasn't been very stable lately, which means that there are even more surveillance checkpoints and even more chances of being detected.
For me, this increased surveillance and the quite short incubation period is actually a unique opportunity to stop the disease from spreading.

In my opinion, stopping commercial flights and/or transport of non-medical staff will reduce the chances of a spread by 99%, as long as the relief workers themselves also stick to strict self-isolation periods before leaving the Ebola area. And even if Ebola spreads from country to country, that will be very slow and containable, whereas there will be no control whatsoever if this gets to India.

Ebola needs a centralised organisation and command center, not an information organism like the WHO who only publish advisory information and actually are getting themselves infected

[Passenger]

Interesting article in The New England Journal of Medicine:
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NE ... #t=article

An endemic ebola in West Africa is far more dangerous for us on long term then a few isolated cases are on short term. Simply because an endemic ebola won't stop in West Africa, and we cannot block off a region as big as Western Europe.

RoMax wrote: As has been said numerous times, aviation will not stop spreading Ebola, it might make things even worse as people find other ways of travel through countries/regions that are vulnurable for a new outbreak.

RoMax is absolutely right: you can't stop Africans from traveling. One may forbit Brussels Airlines to fly to risk areas, but they will find an airport to fly to their relatives in Lagos, Accra, Dakar, Paris, Brussels or Texas.