Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is missing

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Bralo20
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by Bralo20 »

stratofreighter wrote: The version above is now disputed according to http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0 :?
Disputed by the same man that has done nothing except denying and disputing things last week...

Like said before, I think there is "some" truth in the WSJ's article... It's not like the Bild in Germany or the Sun in the UK, the WSJ is a reputable media not some sort of tabloid. Before media like WSJ publish something they have verified it multiple times.


But I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

teddybAIR
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by teddybAIR »

If Rolce Royce would indeed have received a data package from the A/C's engines, I would already have expected the results of an analysis that would confirm/reject the possibility that it flew at FL295 an hour after it disappeared from radar screens as that info would be highly usefull to maintain or reduce the search area in terms of size.

My bet: it is exactly where you would expect it to be (near the location where it lost contact) but the vast majority has sunk to the bottom and we are looking at the ocean surface, hence not seeing it.

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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by teddybAIR »

Malaysian minster Seri Hishammuddin and Malaysian Airlines' chief exec. Ahmad Jauhari Yahya both report that the aircraft did not send engine data in the 4 hours after disappearing. They specify that neither Boeing, nor Rollce Royce have received any data from the aircraft later than 30 minutes into the flight.

I would start taking that oil rig workers testimony very, very seriously and take a second look at the crash site he reported because it is more or less consistent with the chinese satelite imagery and the aircraft last known position. It doesn't hurt to take a second more carefull look and it would certainly be a good idea to deploy some sonars to look for the reckage below the water surface. 6 days into the search per knot sea current the debris have floated 144 nautical miles. So chances of finding floating debris are getting smaller as time goes by as well as the predictive value of finding such floating debris. If you find that debris a few hours after an airliner goes missing, then that tells you a lot about where to search. Find it a week later and it can have drifted hundreds of miles.

So I'd go for the rational thing to do: start scanning the seabed near the last known position as wreckage on the bottom of the sea is less likely to be displaced by sea currents than floating debris. Moreover, the chances that that floating debris is going to learn you something meaningful is also very slim. You need the CVR & FDR and those are not afloat.

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sn26567
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by sn26567 »

If, according to The Aviation Herald's latest report, "Boeing, Roll Royce, and NTSB confirmed the last data transmission received from the aircraft was at 01:07L, then the very serious Wall Street Journal and the not less serious Jon Ostrower got information about 5 hr of ACARS data on the engines from the wrong sources and should apologise to its readers.

The Aviation Herald continues: Malaysia's Search Control Center consulted with the NTSB and other agencies with respect to the unidentified primary radar returns and it was a common decision, that there were sufficient grounds to dedicate forces to search for the aircraft west of Malaysia. The aircraft dispatched to the location identified by SASTIND did not find anything, China did not intend to release the satellite images to the public. Malaysia is committed to find the aircraft and is going to intensify search efforts further.

This is becoming very embarrassing for Malaysia...
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teddybAIR
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by teddybAIR »

sn26567 wrote:This is becoming very embarrassing for Malaysia...
IMHO, it's not embarrassing because of the time it takes to find it. It is becoming embarrassing because they seem to deploy resources based on rumours instead of quality or reliability of data, eyewitness accounts, etc.

Bralo20
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by Bralo20 »

The WSJ seems very determined about their information, they even updated the story with a new map and with a video interview with Jon: Flight 370’s Engines Ran Long After Contact Lost http://on.wsj.com/1qyyjvs

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sn26567
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by sn26567 »

Bralo20 wrote:The WSJ seems very determined about their information, they even updated the story with a new map and with a video interview with Jon: Flight 370’s Engines Ran Long After Contact Lost http://on.wsj.com/1qyyjvs
The Aviation Herald was updated AFTER the interview of Jon Ostrower: I keep the opinion that this story has been denied by American investigators.
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Bralo20
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by Bralo20 »

Well, the Americans are pretty sure it continued to fly for 4+ hours, they have dispatched a destroyer to the Indian Ocean to search for the plane.

Belgian HLN: http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/30080/Spookvli ... oyer.dhtml

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/012c1d04-aaa4 ... z2vsNuAglm

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/14/world ... world&_r=0

So... If the story about it flying for hours were false, why the hell would the Americans go search there?

andorra-airport
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by andorra-airport »

Malaysian officials now admit engine pings were detected and the 777 remained flying for 4-5 hours after transponder transmissions went dark.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCrGwARPeyI

Bralo20
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by Bralo20 »

I would say told you so but that would not be nice :D

But this is getting very bad for Malaysia... First they denied the information, they even opened their press conference with it and now, several hours later they believe it's true... They are starting to look like a bunch of incompetent fools.

The WSJ was wrong on one point and they corrected it, the information that the plane continued to fly for serveral hours didn't come from the EHM system on the Rolls Royce engines but came from another system on board.

Acid-drop
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by Acid-drop »

Malaysian officials now admit engine pings were detected and the 777 remained flying for 4-5 hours after transponder transmissions went dark.
???
They strongly deny everything for long hours and now they admit it ?
what the hell is happening ?
They are starting to look like a bunch of incompetent fools.
Or they are themselves hiding something

a bit too much into the conspiracy theory i know :)

So ... 4,5 hours ... where can it go ?
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quixoticguide
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by quixoticguide »

About 2200NM so this means the plane could have fly as far south as Australia, as far west as western India, into upper China, and nearly to Papau New Guinea in the east.

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sn26567
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by sn26567 »

The Wall Street Journal has modified its version of the story: U.S. investigators suspect Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 flew for hours past the time it reached its last confirmed location, based on an analysis of signals sent through the plane's satellite-communication link designed to automatically transmit the status of onboard systems, according to people familiar with the matter. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said investigators based their suspicions on signals from monitoring systems embedded in the plane's Rolls-Royce PLC engines and described that process.
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fretn
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by fretn »

Tomnod just published the results of the first sattelite photo finds. Some interesting stuff in there. Interesting detail, there is a clear (smaller) airplane visible as well in the right topside (aside from lots of trash). You can check the results here.

http://www.tomnod.com/nod/

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quixoticguide
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by quixoticguide »

Malaysian authorities have expanded their search into the Andaman Sea and beyond, requesting India's help with the search. The jet had enough fuel to reach deep into the Indian Ocean.
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Flanker2
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by Flanker2 »

Fortunately and unfortunately at the same time, we can now confirm that it was an act of piracy.
It's better to be looking out for hostages than for a wreckage and debris.

What confirms the act of piracy:
-The transponder was switched off intentionally, as the aircraft continued to fly several hours later. In a slow decompression, the pilots wouldn't do that.
-No debris found anywhere in the vicinity where the loss of contact occurred
-No ELT signals have been picked up by any satellites

So was the aircraft's control gained from within or from outside?
-If you look at the FR24 replay, the aircraft's radar spot shifts 3 times around the place where the last radar contact occurred. On the same screen you can see other aircraft just disappearing from the screen in a question mark. This pattern of shifting could be consistent with the initiation of jamming. Jamming can be done from within the aircraft but also from an intercepting craft.
-Cutting the transponder can't be done from outside. However, the receivers are set to receive a precise pattern of data, so if that data is rendered inconsistent, it may no longer be displayed.
-Concerning radio contact, you can suppress it by emitting waves opposed to waves emitted by the aircraft... active noise suppression.

Most importantly, where is it now?
-The aircraft probably carried sufficient fuel for 7,5 hours. Count route + contingency + reserves.
This puts it at 6000km.
Given how consciously they went about saving fuel by flying higher despite the risk of being spotted, it must have been on the limits of the range with fuel. For me this means Iran, Saudia Arabia or Somalia.


I'm glad that the Americans are taking matters in their hands, the Malaysians just aren't up to the task.
The system transmitted position data for 5 hours, so the Americans can narrow it down to a very small search area.

SN22667
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by SN22667 »

As a Quality Systems Management professional and Auditor I strongly suggest that the February 24th Maintenance data and logs should be very carefully audited ! :geek:

tsv
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by tsv »

Flanker2 wrote:Fortunately and unfortunately at the same time, we can now confirm that it was an act of piracy.
It's better to be looking out for hostages than for a wreckage and debris.
Oh Man you continue to crack me up. I can't believe the Investigation team hasn't recruited you yet to head up their Operation!

Whatever you're smoking please share...

Kris
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Re: Malaysia Airlines says it has lost contact with flight M

Post by Kris »

The US is now stating that communication and transponder have stopped sending signals independently from each other, comm stopped first, about 20 min later transponder stopped.
Human involvment?

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