Lufthansa considers long-range jet order

[sn26567]

Weeks after approving purchases of 108 aircraft, dominated by a 100-plane order for medium-haul planes awarded to Airbus, Lufthansa is studying a further purchase of "several dozen" long-distance twin-engined jets as it continues to update its fleet.

Lufthansa's options include Boeing 787 Dreamliners, Airbus A350s and Boeing 777s for the order, which is likely to be fiercely contested between the leading plane manufacturers.

The Lufthansa group, which includes SWISS and Austrian Airlines, has a reputation for exhaustive technical analysis and is seen as a key battleground as Airbus and Boeing vie for advantage in one of the most lucrative parts of the market.

More from Airwise and Reuters

[RoMax]

Rumours point (as expected) at a big win for Airbus (big A350-order). It seems like a no-brainer to me that the majority of this order will be for the A350, it remains the question if they also decide to order the 787-9 and/or 787-10 (they already said the -8 is too small) or maybe even the 777-8X (tough I doubt that due to its overlap with the A351 and the 777-9X is too big=too close to the 748i said LH). I believe the 787-9 and 787-10 may be the better choice for Austrian and SN (Austrian's "official" April-joke was about an order for 20(or 30? I don't remember that well anymore) 787's ), but probably not if LH/LX will only order the A350.
I think the chances of the 777X are quite limited based on what I heard the latest weeks.

[Flanker2]

A350 should indeed be the big winner, no-brainer.
I think that it will be a mega-order of at least 60 frames.

I don't see any B787's, too long lead times, plus the potential of a A330NEO/winglets.
The big problem for the B77-X and B787-1000 is that they aren't even paper airplanes.

But LH makes very weird fleet decisions, so who knows. If we go by their order history of bad decisions, they might split it 60/40 or even all-B77W

[BrightCedars]

I think as far as SN is concerned they need the most versatile and the smallest viable option possible.

It does seem the B787-8 economics make it an unlikely candidate, but I'm pretty sure anything larger than a B787-9 wouldn't help them. Is the A358 similarly sized?

SN need the best blend to provide higher frequency and nonstop routes, a business requisite, while not having to carry around a lot of empty seats.

[MD-11forever]

Apparently, they are considering an order for 50 aircraft, and it will be a winner-takes-all order (i.e. only one manufacturer).

Lufthansa Prepares Wide-Body Purchase That Will Favor One Vendor

April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Lufthansa AG said it plans to buy about 50 long-haul planes by the end of the year and will favor either Airbus SAS or Boeing Co. in its purchase. The airline group has about 100 planes seating 200 to 300 passengers that will need replacing at its Lufthansa, Swiss and Austrian passenger airlines, said Nico Buchholz, senior vice president for corporate fleet. Planes set to leave the stable include Boeing 777-200s and 767s, as well as Airbus A340s and A330s. Only about half the requirement will be filled in 2013, and the exact number isn’t yet fixed, he said.
Lufthansa is considering the Airbus A350, set for first delivery by the end of 2014, as well as Boeing’s 787 and 777X, Buchholz said. While the U.S. manufacturer still needs board clearance to offer that plane, Buchholz said he has been given enough information by Boeing to understand the offering. “We have a fair idea of what the aircraft will look like, so we can actually compare what it does in terms of size compared with the 787 and in terms of size and other performance characteristics and cost attributes compared with an Airbus solution,” he said in an interview in Barcelona at the AFCA aircraft finance conference.
The German airline will take into consideration plane size, operating economics and performance, including fuel burn, and how well each aircraft fits into the route networks served by the group airlines, he said. Sticking with just one manufacturer will help limit costs for pilot training on unrelated models, Buchholz said.
The Airbus A330 will be the last of the long-haul planes to exit the fleet, Buchholz said. The airline group has 36 A330s and 63 A340s, according to its website. Lufthansa is also continuing to sell some of its 70-seat jets, Buchholz said. It has 20 in the Cityline unit and several others in other units.

[RoMax]

A350 should indeed be the big winner, no-brainer.
I think that it will be a mega-order of at least 60 frames.

Rumours (I know I know) talk about 50 A350's (900 and 1000), but probably more options.

I don't see any B787's, too long lead times, plus the potential of a A330NEO/winglets.
The big problem for the B77-X and B787-1000 is that they aren't even paper airplanes.

Some airlines would like a A330NEO (especially because the A350-800 is a bit like the fat duck in the A350-family), but I don't think it will ever happen unless Airbus drops the A350-800.
Lufthansa often named the 787-10(X) as a possible A333 (and even partly A343) replacement. It's perfect for the US East coast or Africa for example. But indeed, it's still not even offered for sale.

The 777-8X doesn't make sense for me unless it's for a carrier that already operates tons of 77W's (like Emirates) and doesn't planning to operate the A350 (so far my EK-example...tough they don't plan the A350 as 77W replacement). The 777-9X is in another class, but as said, too big for Lufthansa.

[RoMax]

Apparently, they are considering an order for 50 aircraft, and it will be a winner-takes-all order (i.e. only one manufacturer).

In that case it will be an order for 50 A350's (see my previous post) for this year. But than still the 787 remains possible as this first order will fill only half of their requirements.

[euroflyer]

If we go by their order history of bad decisions, they might split it 60/40 or even all-B77W

Hm?? You might feel the decisions in the past have been "bad", and looking back some years of course you always have more information available, however, those decisions still enabled LH to be one of the most succesful flag carriers around if I am correct ... can they really have been sooo bad?

[RoMax]

Lufthansa once again talked about an order of about 50 long haul aircraft by the end of this year. They have to replace the A340-fleet and candidates are the A350-900 and -1000 from Airbus and the 787-9 and 787-10X of Boeing.

Lufthansa also said their 13 youngest Boeing 747-400's will be replaced in next decade and could be replaced by the 777-9X instead of the less efficient four-engined aircraft they currently use for the initial 744 replacement and expansion. The 777-9X will have about the same amount of seats as the 744, but at much lower costs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-0 ... -400s.html

[earthman]

I doubt they want to replace the youngest 747s? The article doesn't actually say this.

[RoMax]

I doubt they want to replace the youngest 747s? The article doesn't actually say this.

Mind that I stated the 13 youngest 747-400's. The rest of the 744 fleet is being replaced by A380's and 748i's (also for expansion), but the 13 youngest -400's will remain in the fleet for several years to come (the 13 youngest are build between 1996 and 2002, the older ones are all build before 1993).
These still have some life in them and don't have to be replaced until next decade (early next decade). But by then, the 777-9X is available, which will have about the same seat capacity and range as the 747-400.

And that is wat the article says.

[earthman]

Yes, I know you stated the 13 youngest 747-400's. But that was not the point.

And that is wat the article says.

No, that is not what the article actually says. It is what you (or perhaps anyone familiar with LH's fleet replacement) learned from reading the article. However, that required some additional background knowledge (the fact that LH is replacing the older 744's with A380's and 748i's), which was neither in this thread nor in any of the articles linked from this thread.

You last post clarified this bit.

[RoMax]

No, that is not what the article actually says. It is what you (or perhaps anyone familiar with LH's fleet replacement) learned from reading the article. However, that required some additional background knowledge (the fact that LH is replacing the older 744's with A380's and 748i's), which was neither in this thread nor in any of the articles linked from this thread.

Well yes, but my assumption was that by now everyone (or almost everyone) reading this forum, knows that Lufthansa is adding A380's and 748i's to the fleet, which are of course partly replacing older aircraft.
And that assumption is also made in the Bloomberg article where they also mention Lufthansa is a A380 and 748i buyer. Someone who doesn't have that background information, probably doesn't care about this either..

To me this is basic information, just like you know BRU is the IATA code of Brussels Airport. Otherwise it's getting rather stupid if you have to explain everything like that, I did now because you commented on it, but otherwise I see that as 'normal' and only mention the new aspects of 'the story'.

[earthman]

Yes I know LH is adding A380's and 748i's to the fleet.

But reading your post made me think that they were to keep some of the older ones and only replace the youngest 13 ones. (Initial replacement by A380/748i, youngest 13 by 777-9x, this leaves room for a possible part of the 744 fleet which is not being replaced..)

While the article is more clear, stating that they are going to replace the 13 remaining 744's.

The missing link is that the remaining older (11?) 744's are already expected to be all replaced by then.

[sn26567]

Various sources confirm that LH will decide on a huge order for about 50 wide-bodies at the 18 September board meeting. The choice will be between the Boeing 787, the yet to be launched Boeing 777X and the Airbus A350, and probably the larger versions of these aircraft (787-10, 777X-9 and A350-1000).

LH could decide to allocate the entire order to one manufacturer, or to split the order between Boeing and Airbus. The deliveries should start in 2018 or 2019.

The new aircraft will replace 22 B744s and 20 A340s.

[crew1990]

I guess no brand new aircraft will join the fleet of SN so maybe a few of the A340 will join SN fleet?

When those aircraft will start quiting LH fleet?

[sn26567]

Various sources confirm that LH will decide on a huge order for about 50 wide-bodies at the 18 September board meeting. The choice will be between the Boeing 787, the yet to be launched Boeing 777X and the Airbus A350, and probably the larger versions of these aircraft (787-10, 777X-9 and A350-1000).

LH could decide to allocate the entire order to one manufacturer, or to split the order between Boeing and Airbus. The deliveries should start in 2018 or 2019.

Various sources say that Lufthansa will split the order between the Boeing 777-9X and the Airbus A350-1000.

[sn26567]

Incidentally, Lufthansa's Japanese colleague in the Star Alliance, ANA will also decide very soon between the B777X and the A350 for 25 long-haul aircraft. My bet is that they will choose Boeing, as usual, whatever the merits of the Airbus plane...

[tolipanebas]

If LH takes the 777-9, expect then to drop their 747-8 options....

[Flanker2]

LH ordering B777-9? Well, it's LH and they are the most incompetent airline in terms of aircraft choice.
So why not?

Other than that, the best aircraft for their needs and at the right time is the A350-1000.
The A350-1000 will still be 30 tons lighter, for only 4 less rows of passengers. The XWB engines are also jewels that GE will not be able to exceed in the timeframe they have, as the -9's engine will just be a combination of a GE90 with GEnx technology.

It's in LH's interest to go all Airbus on this one.
I'm sure they don't want to be part of the B787 saga.